Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Weather contributes to a tricky Ayr contest

Daryl Carter
Daryl Carter offers insight into the Class 3 at Ayr this evening

Daryl Carter has no bets to advise for Tuesday's racing but takes a closer look at the sole Class 3 race in the country at Ayr...

  • Just one Class 3 race from 27 on Tuesday

  • A closer look at Ayr's feature

  • This resulted in a no-bet day

As I mentioned in this column at the start of the year, I am keen to continue avoiding Class 5-6 handicap races. This is part of the proposed changes to improve this column, backed up by the data, which suggested that this wasn't my forte.

There's only one class 3 race available on Tuesday from 27 races across Britain, giving you a good indication of the quality of racing. With York's excellent Dante meeting on the horizon, I wanted to avoid forcing a section.

I am away on holiday for a week starting Wednesday. My wife is desperate to see the Pyramids in Egypt, and I am desperate to watch the York Dante Festival (my favourite flat meeting). However, I am told there is something called compromise in marriage - it must have been in the fine print.

I will have a column for Wednesday and Thursday and an ante-post column, which I am working on for the rest of the meeting. I will update with a video or two while there, as well.

Anyway, onto today...

19:30 Ayr - No Bet

Trainer Jim Goldie has three in here, with Be Proud being the choice of Paul Mulrennan, and slightly favoured in the betting. He caught the eye over five furlongs at Musselburgh, staying on past beaten horses on his seasonal debut to outrun his 100/1101.00 odds, and there's little doubt that assignment is too sharp of a test these days.

The move back up to six furlongs looks like a big positive when trawling through the most recent of his 90-race profile. He was a winner here on heavy ground in October on his last outing over six furlongs, down the field in the Ayr Silver Cup, second to Dark Trooper on heavy ground at Haydock in August, a winner at Doncaster and is excused his seasonal return at this venue last season.

The evidence of those runs that recorded RPR ratings of 89, 21, 85, 82, and 72 should mean that this rating of 80 is within reach, and his six-furlong victory here in October is the most potent single piece of turf form in the race. His reliability is up for question, though.

Goldie's other runners included Jordan Electrics, for whom the weather forecast doesn't look promising if it all transpires. Some heavy rain due throughout Tuesday could turn the going from good to firm to the slower side of good, and his beaten record of a combined distance of 89 lengths in four outings on a soft surface means he is passed the evening before racing.

Rock Melody went off a 11/26.50 favourite for the Bronze Cup here last September when one pound higher. It's worth putting a line through her run at Musselburgh when she was narrowly behind stablemate Be Proud after a slow start from an impossible draw. She has gone off a shorter price than Be Proud (three times last season), Jordon Electrics and Slainte Mhath when they met during the middle to end of last season. Mark Winn claims three, and he got a good tune out of her the only time he rode her, and was a fast-finishing third in a hot Class 3 over course and distance. He is an upgrade on Mulrennan - catty, I know.

She has had a few goes at this trip. Five furlongs certainly looks too sharp for her, and she has yet to be convinced for stamina over seven, while her last effort over today's distance saw an unsuitable pace when beaten favourite at Hamilton.

She has let favourite backers down regularly, but perhaps a big field and a strong pace is what she needs.

The Caltonian is an improver for the fitting of the blinkers, and if he can repeat his second at Newcastle on his penultimate start here, then writing most of this is probably a waste of time. The headgear may put pay to the theory that he is "better on the AW". His improvement has been coupled with the blinkers and the AW surface, as he had some credible runs on turf earlier in his career. Therefore, I would ignore anyone saying he is "0-10 on turf and better on the AW" or "something to prove on turf", the likely incoming comments on the Racing Post app.

However, he took a heavy fall when brought down at Newcastle in March, and is another unknown if a quantity of rain is delivered at the track.

Snazzy Jazzy has looked to be going backwards, and Zarzyni has been very expensive to follow.

It's a tricky race, and punters should monitor the ground changes. Therefore, it's tough to tip in this contest the evening before race day, so I will hold off until before the race-off to monitor the ground and the market for a personal bet. However, I would be leaning towards The Caltonian who is the improver in the field at 7/24.50 or bigger.

Now read Serial Winners Fund: Rachael Blackmore raises £250k for injured jockey charities


2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) June 1st

2024 P/L = +74.43 ROI 18.10%

BSP P/L = +79.1 ROI 19.34%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +4


2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%


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