Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Sir Gino can burn Bally in Kempton speed test

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter says Sir Gino can down Ballyburn.

Daryl Carter has five selections for Betfair followers on Friday, and he says Sir Gino can down Ballyburn under these conditions...

  • Sir Gino to star on Friday at Kempton

  • Editeur Du Gite is well handicapped if bouncing back

  • Look to Willmount to leave his 130 rating behind in handicap finale


13:55 Kempton - Back Sir Gino @ BSP 2pt

This is a smashing race, and there's little surprise that I am siding with Sir Gino.

However, Ballyburn is greatly respected, and his engine is there for all to see. Still, 2m around Kempton on quick ground is everything he doesn't want. He is bred to be a stayer, and I expect him to improve for moving out in distance in due course, and I would fancy him for a Brown Advisory.

However, today's race is the speed test of all speed tests, and he has a bit to prove, considering that even in his hurdle days, he never clocked a good, strong time over the minimum distance, and his jumping left something to be desired on his chase debut - that's my opinion (and RaceIQ's)

Majborough in Ireland has already put to the sword last year's novice hurdlers, and I expect the same outcome with leading juvenile Sir Gino.

Sir Gino will prove he is a force to be reckoned with in this division as he gives Ballyburn his toughest assignment yet. The four-year-old gets a healthy six-pound weight-for-age allowance from Ballyburn to add to his appeal along with the day's conditions and course that Sir Gino has already scored at.

I expect Paul Nicholls' Rubaud will ensure no hanging around. That will suit Sir Gino, who was in the running for a Champion Hurdle following his Fighting Fifth victory. Sir Gino will show his excellent turn of foot and leave him behind, and I can't wait to see him take to the track.

While it's risky to back anything at short odds that you haven't seen jump a fence, he leaves the impression that chasing will be the making of him, and I feel he is taking on a future three-mile horse.

Betfair goes the shortest, so I advise against any odds against and hope for a fair BSP price for the column. Followers of this column know how highly I regard this horse, so I am hopeful of a big showing.


14:45 Wetherby - Back Malystic @ 7/24.50 1pt

Malystic--7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook-- hasn't won since April 2023 but scored in this race on its last running in 2022. He is down to a more realistic mark returned to his favoured Wetherby venue, for which he is 2-2, and I expect him to bounce back from a below-par effort last time out.

Brian Hughes is back in the saddle for the first time since his head-second at Kelso on his seasonal return, and he did return to form a poor effort two years ago to score in this race, so his recent run at Kelso when beaten 24 lengths is of no concern.

He has been set up for this contest, which is less competitive than his win in 2022, so the negatives are hard to find. He offers good value in this small compressed handicap and recently recorded high RPR ratings of 151.

The fact that Peter Niven has called on Brian Hughes's services gives confidence that he has him right at a time of year when he has previously held a good record. Harper's Brook has risks attached, and Pay The Piper looks short enough, while Parisencore needs to find a jolt of improvement.

A price of 3/14.00 or bigger is acceptable.


14:30 Kempton - Back Editeur Du Gite @ 9/110.00 1pt

There's only been one target all year for Editeur Du Gite - 9/110.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - and this is it. He has been running over a trip too far all season, so his handicap rating has dropped significantly from 161 to 150. Of course, there is a chance that he is not the force of old at ten years old. Still, today, he has optimal conditions and returns to the Kempton race he has won for the past two years (A limited handicap). He is armed with the five-pound claim of Freddie Mitchell, who is a talent in the saddle, making him look exceptionally well treated on his best form.

Given the structure of this race and the lack of options for Editeur Du Gite, who falls short of Grade 1 level, handicapping him for one prize looks like a good training plan. He is 13lb better off with Edwardstone (plus the five pounds claim) for a neck victory in the Clarence House in 2023 and 11 lb better off with Boothill (plus the five pounds claim) for having him held in third when he departed in this race last year.

In handicapping terms, he is "well-in" with many of these rivals and offers good value at near double-figure odds. The return to a right-handed track is a positive, and it's worth remembering that he bounced back to victory out of the blue in this contest last year when rated 159.

One suspects this is his "Gold Cup," so he can't go unbacked despite the presence of the feared upwardly mobile Martator. Martator is effectively 16lb higher than his Ascot victory and faces a more daunting task, but he could have any improvement to come.

In the hope that connections have Editeur Du Gite right for this, following a 41-day break, he gets the vote to buck out and prove hard to beat in what may be his year-defining race.

Back the selection at 8/19.00 or bigger.


15:08 Kempton - Back Slipway @ 17/29.50 1pt

Another horse (like the above) I think may have been set up for the Christmas period is Slipway--17/29.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook-- who is not one for maximum faith. Still, Ben Pauling's runner has been better than the bare result the last two times this season in competitive handicaps when tiring towards the end of both 3m5f trips at Ascot and Cheltenham. Ascot's task may have come too soon following his good effort at Cheltenham just eight days prior, so I expect better now, given a more suitable break.

He looks like he is building towards a more significant effort, which may come today when he returns to the scene of his excellent victory in March. He is only two pounds higher in this contest, has his favoured ground, and will be well suited by this dip back in distance.

The nine-year-old sneaks into this 0-135, and it looks like a target from his trainer, who has already had a good Christmas Kempton meeting.

Back the selection at 8/19.00 or bigger win-only.


15:38 Kempton - Back Willmount @ BSP 1.5pt

Faith remains with Willmount, who departed at Cheltenham last time but remains with serious handicapping potential from this rating of 130, considering he was cruising through the race before taking off too early at three out.

Today's race is more competitive on paper, but he is entirely unexposed and has his favoured good ground. The six-year-old caught the eye at Cheltenham, travelling very strongly, and he had yet to play his hand. He may have defied a big market drift on the day.

Today's track favours speed, and given his ability to jump at pace and gain ground over his obstacles, he should be well suited to this assignment--one his trainer won in 2022 and 2017.

He has a bit of class, and I expect him to come to the fore today and repay his backers for Cheltenham from this fair rating of 130. The quick turnaround is a positive sign that feels no ill effects, and the upside to his profile is plentiful. He is the most promising of these.

Glory And Fortune is attractively handicapped, and there are others you can make a case for, but they don't quite have optimal conditions.

His opening 15/82.88 is defensive, and I expect to get bigger before the off, so I will hold out for a better price closer to 5/23.50.


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DARYL'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) End Of Year review

2024 P/L = +76.80 ROI 7.05%

BSP P/L = +31.5 ROI 2.89%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +1.33

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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