Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: 2/1 Sea Stone can earn Dubai Carnival entry

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter heads to Ascot for three bets on the card.

Daryl Carter has three selections on Friday, all from Ascot and says his NAP needs to win to earn a spot in Dubai next month...

  • Middle Earth is the speed figure horse

  • Lethal Nympth can continue a 100% record at Ascot

  • Sea Stone must be ahead of the handicapper to fulfil trainers' plans

15:57 Ascot - Back Middle Earth @ BSP 1pt

It was hard not to be impressed by how Naqeeb put the race to bed at Haydock last time out.

However, that was a steadily run race in comparison to the Old Borough Cup won by Post Impressionist on the card, and despite being well positioned in a much slower run contest, his final furlong when all out to fend off the 83-rated Blindedbythelights was clocked a slower time than the William Haggas winner in the following race and the trainer's Lordship further down the field.

Naqeeb is exceptionally well-bred, and I don't want to knock him too much. Still, thanks to the latest evidence, I doubt his stamina in an honestly run race over this trip.

In terms of form, a line through Denmark would suggest the favourite has a bit to find with Chesspiece, but that one may prefer soft ground, so he is probably right at his current 7/24.50.

Denmark was reluctant behind Naqeeb at Haydock, but that wasn't true at York in the Melrose behind winner Middle Earth - 9/43.25 on the Betfair Sportsbook. John And Thady Gosden's runner certainly picked up the pieces in a well-run affair at York.

Still, he proved his stamina no end by clocking stronger closing sectionals for the last three furlongs than the Ebor winner, and there wasn't much between the winner of both races in the early stages, either.

A line through Lordship, Post Impressionist, and Denmark all suggest Middle Earth is up to confirming Newmarket form with Naqeeb over this longer trip. He made a menacing move in the Doncaster St Leger, but Oisin Murphy got stuck up the rail and had nowhere to go.

The soft ground likely took its toll in Group 1 company there, but he will be seen to good effect back on a drying faster surface today.

It's worth remembering that he was supplemented for the Group 1 Doncaster St Leger and went off half the price of Chesspiece. His pedigree is layered with stamina, and he might be the one to beat here.

The Betfair Sportsbook are ducking him a little, and Naqeeb is sure to go off favourite for this with his glowing pedigree, so back him at BSP, which I suspect will be around 10/34.33.

15:57 Ascot - Back Middle Earth @ BSP

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16:30 Ascot - Back Sea Stone @ 2/13.00 2pt

Ismail Mohammed is one of the shrewdest trainers in the game, and he loves nothing more than a crack at the Dubai Carnival next month. His comments after the win of Sea Stone - 2/13.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - at Newmarket left a lasting impression.

He was quoted saying he has two races for him there (next month), but he has to be rated at least 90 to run, and he also mentioned the Dubai Gold Cup in the same breath.

If that's the case, then his trainer thinks he is a long way ahead of the handicapper off this rating of 87, and his performance at Southwell when catching the eye from a long way out would also confirm that.

He could have done with a more robust pace to aim at in the Racing League at Southwell from his hold-up position, but Frankie Dettori found plenty of traffic in the home straight, having been tapped for toe and seen his run down the rail blocked and then blocked again once switching inside. He was given a tender ride in the closing stages and left the impression there would be another day.

The handicapper leaves him on the same mark here, which is far easier on balance.

A handful of these have stamina to prove, including El Jasor, his closest market rival. I expect that one and Art De Vivre to change positions in the market given Charlie Fellowes' booking of William Buick on the latter and the confirmed stamina.

Still, this is an excellent opportunity to get that rating hike, having already held Alright Sunshine.

16:30 Ascot - Back Sea Stone @ 2/13.00

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17:05 Ascot - Back Lethal Nymph @ 8/19.00 1pt e/w

Rohaan returned to form in no uncertain terms in the Ayr Gold Cup last time, running on powerfully at the finish and now returned to the scene of his previous three victories, he should rightly prove popular off of a handy mark.

The five-year-old has taken time to come to hand this season and has yet to replicate his brilliant best from last year when competing in Group 1 company, but now could be the time to catch him.

He is feared undoubtedly, although well found in this market and with the Betfair Sportsbook paying five places, it might be worth chancing another Ascot lover that recently gave the firm indication that a return to form was imminent.

Lethal Nymph - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - ran well at Doncaster's St Leger meeting on ground that wouldn't have been favourable behind the thriving Baradar, and having been headed inside the final two furlongs, he battled back. He finished with a flurry to get back up for second. That run signalled he may be ready to strike, having given the same indication last year at that venue when caught on the wrong side of the track in the Racing League.

Following last year, he dotted up here at Ascot twice and while today's assignment is tougher than both, he has a favourable draw against the stands rail.

When the stalls are stands side, it can breed traffic problems, but the selection will be in the firing line throughout, and there's little other pace drawn high to pester him for the lead. In the hope he bounces out and realises he is back at his favourite track, he could take plenty of kicking out of the frame and has a very realistic win chance.

17:05 Ascot - Back Lethal Nymph @ 8/19.00

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Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update November 1st

Advised Stakes = +69.5pts ROI 6.75%

BSP = +76.4pts ROI +7.4%

Antepost P/L since Jan 1st 2023

Advised Stakes = +34.6pts


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