Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: 4/1 O'Brien runner can slam St Leger rivals

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter is very keen on an O'Brien runner for the Group 1 St Leger.

Daryl Carter has four selections on Saturday, and his confident NAP comes in the day's feature race, the Group 1 Doncaster St Leger...

  • Daryl Carter heads to Doncaster for a super Saturday

  • Our man is baffled that his selection is not a clear St Leger fav

  • Mase can bounce back, having caught the eye at York

14:25 Doncaster - Back Call Me Ginger @ 7/18.00 0.5pt e/w

It's a smashing race, but Call Me Ginger - 7/18.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - looks sure to go well, arriving back at the race he won last year off just two pounds higher and looked in excellent nick in winning at Ascot.

Jim Goldie's runner is currently in career-best form, likely down to the time of the year. Call Me Ginger has seen seven of his ten career victories in September, three of which have come at this venue.

He sluiced through the field at Ascot last time, overcame an early pace bias and won with a good bit in hand. Reviewing his runs, he had gradually shown a return to form. Provided a clear run, there is no reason to think he won't be finishing off his race strongly once again.

Back Call Me Ginger @ 7/18.00

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14:25 Doncaster - Back Chipstead @ 11/112.00 0.5pt e/w

Chipstead - 11/112.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - won this race last year before being demoted to second for causing interference with Call Me Ginger as he hung left in the closing stages.

He is another good at this time of year with form figures in August/September of 1112124. His latest fourth indicated that a return to form could be imminent, recording an RPR of 106 when chasing home the potentially very smart Rogue Lightening from an unfavoured position. Today, he reunites with Frederick Larson, who rode him well in this race last year and claims three off his back.

Chipstead is effectively much higher in the handicap this time, but he has improved since running in this race last year with a career-best RPR of 111 at York earlier this season.

He is bred to handle a soft surface, and the combination of five furlongs (or five and a half) and soft ground has only been seen twice in his career, resulting in a win at Catterick off 97 and a win in this race off 92 (demoted).

Last year's effort was well worth an upgrade, considering he came from a high draw when the action developed on the other side of the track. The best of the rest from high draws finished fifth and worse.

Today, Chipstead is drawn lowest of all in stall one, close to Call Me Ginger, and I'd be disappointed if one of these is not crowned the winner (again).

Back Chipstead @ 11/112.00

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15:35 Doncaster - Back Continuous @ 5.04/1 3pt

An open renewal of the Doncaster St Leger if you think the market is correct, and I certainly don't. Arrest is now a default market leader, having seen Frankie Dettori switch onto him after the rain arrived, but that won't be enough for him to come out on top and reverse King Edward form with Continuous - 10/34.33 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Arrest put in a good shift at Newbury, but the sectionals clearly show that he only kept up the gallop. In fact, the filly, Ching Shih (beaten yesterday), clocked faster sectionals through the final four furlongs, and Arrest looked awkward under pressure and did not hit the line hard. He doesn't quicken, he gallops.

However, will he benefit from such a soft lead here to adopt those tactics? I doubt it very much. Arrest is a talented horse, but his two wins this season have come in Group 3 contests when given fairly easy tasks (Adelaide River hated the ground at Chester and has improved as the season has gone on for a sounder surface).

Gregory fans must be concerned that Kieran Shoemark is on instead of Frankie at the last hour, and he is unproven on a slower surface, while I was baffled as to why John Gosden was happy with his run at York when demolished by Continuous.

He is another galloper and struggles with a turn of foot. He won the Queen's Vase from the front, which saw Saint George boxed in at a crucial stage, and with Chesspiece behind him there, I struggle to see how he has strong claims to this crown.

Desert Hero also readily held Chesspiece, who won as he liked at Goodwood to back up his excellent Royal Ascot handicap victory. But that was a handicap, and while he took his form to a new level at Goodwood, I doubt he will be able to cover up and pounce off the bridle as he did there with this long stamina-sapping home straight while soft ground and 1m6f are not certain to be his ideal conditions.

Should he find another jolt of improvement, he is undoubtedly a danger, and he is one of the two in this field who are the wrong price.

Middle Earth looked good at York, but today's conditions are a slight unknown, and he was undoubtedly flattered by his winning margin thanks to a pace collapse in the Melrose. On reflection, that wasn't the strongest renewal (2nd and 4th both beaten next time), so he has plenty to find, along with Melrose runner-up Denmark and the unexposed Alexandroupolis.

That brings us to Continuous, who is top-rated in this field after his York Group 2 Great Voltigeur romp over Gregory. While the easy thing to do is to say he benefitted from a pace collapse, the sectionals would tell you differently. He clocked the fastest final four furlongs of any horse in the race, and two of those were quicker than Mostahdaf winning the Juddmonte International over 1m2f.

Regarding his form, he has already taken the scalp of Arrest at Ascot and Gregory at York. At the same time, his runner-up effort at Ascot behind the brilliant King Of Steel over 1m4f looks outstanding after the winner ran a blinder in the Group 1 King George and was beaten just a length in the Irish Champion Stakes.

The form ties into Desert Hero through Artistic Star (albeit loosely), which gives him the holding of that one for now.

The stable's two outsiders in this field will ensure a good gallop, and neither Gosden pair gets a soft lead. Continuous is undoubtedly open to improvement on his last two pieces of form now going over this distance.

He has handled soft ground already when winning a Group 3 in Saint Cloud last term and has a slightly rounded action that would give confidence. Even so, with little rain due on Friday, the track may have a chance to dry back to good to soft - a concern for Arrest backers but of little worry to Continuous backers.

Tower Of London appeals, but the defection of Ryan Moore and soft ground must be a concern, having underperformed on both occasions when facing a slower surface and showing his best form on good or faster.

Continuous is the form horse in this race, and how he is not a favourite makes little sense to me. Granted, I have struggled with form this week, so perhaps keeping it light makes the most sense, but I flounder to see how he is not excellent value at anything bigger than 13/82.63.

The Betfair Exchange offers plenty of 5.04/1 about him, and given this is a win-only selection, the advice is to back there, but 10/34.33 on the Sportsbook is acceptable.

Back Continuous @ 5.04/1

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16:10 Doncaster - Back Masekela @ [BSP] 1pt

This race is there for the taking, and I am pretty keen to take on the top of this market. I was a big fan of La Yakel last season and had one of my biggest bets of the year on him when he thankfully won at Ascot, but he didn't go forward after that (cost me plenty at Newmarket), and this season, he hasn't gone on and progressed like the market has expected him too.

The drop in distance and the soft ground may be helpful to see him back on track, but he is short enough.

I am keen on both outsiders here, particularly Masekela - Currently SP on the Betfair Sportsbook - who showed much more at York on the back of a wind operation despite being beaten ten lengths 10th of 14.

There's no doubt he has been disappointing for connections. Still, he travelled through his race at York with a different enthusiasm to what he had shown in four starts earlier this year and was denied a clear run once building up steam and was ridden under tender handling in the closing stages.

If he had been granted a clear passage, I suspect he would have gone down as an "eye-catcher" and been much shorter than his likely opening odds, which will be in the region of 12/113.00.

He has fallen considerably in the handicap, and rightly so after the performances this season, but his latest was different. He was fitted with the first-time cheek-pieces at York, and it was his first run after a wind operation, and those two factors could work again to see him return to the excellent form he showed as a two and three-year-old.

Slow ground will be no issue for him, and he reunites with Oisin Murphy. There are many positives about his chances today; now could be the time to catch him.

I am also keen on Lightening Company, who has an excellent record returning from Hurdles and should have won for us at Hamilton on his last start on turf. Having been over hurdles and then returning to the flat, his form figures read 411, so he must be of interest today, having had a spin at Cartmel last time. Still, he is priced accordingly.

Back the selection at 12/113.00 or bigger on the Sportsbook, but his BSP has been much bigger on all his starts, so I am happy to let the market write him off.

Back Masekela @ BSP

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Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update October 1st

Advised Stakes = +89.7pts ROI 9.61%

BSP = +110.3pts ROI +11.82%


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