Daryl Carter's Tips: Murphy's genius placing can rock Kelso favourite

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has five fresh Saturday bets from his two Saturday antepost picks

Daryl Carter has five further bets to add to his two Saturday ante-post selections and looks to Kelso for his NAP...

  • Five fresh Saturday bets to add to two ante-post selections

  • Musical Slave lined up to improve excellent spring record

  • Thunder Rock can get the better of National hope

  • We're now NRMB on all 28 Cheltenham Festival races

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  • Paul Nicholls Superboost

    If, like Paul, you're confident that Kandoo Kid can run a big race in the 13:55 at Newbury this afternoon then you can back the horse to finish in the top three at the super-boosted price of 7/42.75 from 5/42.25.

    Back Kandoo Kid to finish in the top three in 13:55 Newbury @ 7/42.75

    Bet here

    13:20 Newbury - Back Musical Slave @ 10/111.00 1pt

    Musical Slave - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is an old pal of mine, one that I learned to typically try and back the third time out after a couple of fitness runs.

    He won third time out in 2023 and 2022, was 3rd in the Swinley Chase 2021, won in 2020, and won in 2019. I was looking to back him in December but decided on a watching brief at Ludlow instead, and I thought he was given a very easy time of things.

    It is interesting they waited until now to turn him out, but that's no surprise when looking at his sensational spring record between March and April 121192311.

    He ran a good race on his only visit here at Newbury in 2020 behind Clondaw Castle, and this mark is still well within reach on the evidence of his Wincanton seasonal return second behind Credo, who went on to equip herself well at Haydock the next twice in competitive staying chases.

    He is vulnerable to an improver but is in a veteran's race, and while dangers are aplenty, there could be another big day in him yet.

    Any 8/19.00 or bigger is acceptable.

    13:20 Newbury - Back Musical Slave @ 10/111.00

    Bet here

    13:42 Kelso - Back The Kalooki Kid @ 11/26.50 1pt

    The Kalooki Kid - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is bred to improve over a trip, so the fact that he was able to stick in there and run well in the 2m Grade 2 Rossington Main at Doncaster last time out and was only beaten seven lengths in a race that turned into a dash is testament to his ability.

    The improving six-year-old drops back in grade into a handicap today off what looks like a workable mark of 124 and steps back up to a more suitable distance. Given his latest stiff assignment has worked out well, with the first and second finishing in the same order in the Grade 2 Dovecote at Kempton, there should be more to come from him with his only start over obstacles beyond 2m, resulting in an easy victory.

    None of these make serious appeal from a handicapping perspective, and this young improver can make the most of a lightweight on his back for a trainer with a 40% strike rate here at Kelso this season.

    He has been well supported since the market opened frustratingly, but he should be a clear favourite for this contest, and 4/15.00 or bigger is acceptable.

    13:42 Kelso - Back The Kalooki Kid @ 11/26.50

    Bet here

    13:55 Newbury - Back Heltenham @ 9/110.00 1pt

    Heltenham - 9/110.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is turned out quickly, and should he handle it, the return to a more galloping track can see him continue his progression after leaving a firm indication that he was ready to strike at Kempton seven days ago.

    The Dan Skelton runner was tapped for toe at a crucial stage in a strong race last week, and today's return to Newbury, where he bolted up last March, looks like a good move. His rating of 130 is certainly well within his grasp, and bar one blip over fences this season at Aintree when a 5/23.50 favourite in horrendous ground when hitting the front too soon, having covered lots of ground out wide, he has done little wrong.

    Most of these look handicapped to their best, and if he can back up quickly, he should be a big player in this contest if delivered late.

    Any 5/16.00 or bigger appeals.

    13:55 Newbury - Back Heltenham @ 9/110.00

    Bet here

    15:25 Kelso - Back Thunder Rock @ 11/26.50 1.5pt

    Thunder Rock - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was entirely outpaced when fancied at Musselburgh last time over two and a half miles, only to finish with a power-packed punch when it was all over.

    Everything about his pedigree suggests there is an improvement to come for going up in trip, and having tried once in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, it's certainly worth another go in these calmer waters - particularly faced with a less testing surface.

    The profile of Thunder Rock is well known, so I won't bore you with it, but I am banking on this trip move to see the eight-year-old finally come good.

    He tackles some strong stayers here, including Newbury Gold Cup third Monbeg Genius, but he has just as decisive claims as the favourite, who is using this as a prep run for the Grand National.

    4/15.00 or bigger is acceptable.

    15:25 Kelso - Back Thunder Rock @ 11/26.50

    Bet here

    15:40 Doncaster - Back Does He Know @ 10/111.00 1pt

    Does He Know - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has fallen six pounds in the handicap for three runs this season, having been stuck between a rock and a hard place when hiked up to 158 after a progressive campaign in 2022.

    He hasn't had his favoured good ground this season, and fitting the cheek-pieces for the first time is also a positive angle. He appeals down significantly in grade and into a handicap for the first time since scoring at Cheltenham in 2022 off 152.

    Today's mark of 149 is well within his reach, and for the first time, he has all the chess pieces in the correct position. It was an encouraging run for a long way at Newbury in deep ground last time when beaten 23 lengths by Shishkin, shaping better than the beaten margin suggests, and bottomless ground at Lingfield behind L'Homme Presse previous wouldn't have been ideal.

    He remains lightly raced after just 11 career outings over fences, and I expect David Bass to return to the more forceful tactics that saw him thrive a few years ago.

    He is seven pounds worse off with Undersupervision, who will surely go well here, but I question his attitude in a fight. Still, he is the biggest threat, but providing the selection runs his race, he should be going close in this company.

    15:40 Doncaster - Back Does He Know @ 10/111.00

    Bet here

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DARYL'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) April 1st

2024 P/L = +8.86 ROI 5.95%

BSP P/L = -22.3 ROI -14.96%

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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