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Betfair's Haydock meeting home to three bets
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There's plenty I could have gotten stuck into today. I may still have a bet in the 15:00 Betfair Chase at Haydock. We all know an on-song Bravemansgame will take all the beating here, and he is priced correctly.
This may be another prep spin for the King George, and it's decent prize money for a day out wherever he finishes (10k for 4th).
If you do fancy Bravemansgame however, the Betfair Sportsbook have superboosted his price to Evens, which you can back now using the below bet banner.
This is Protektorat's big day, and he doesn't have stacks to find with the favourite on their Gold Cup run. He has an excellent record on his first time out, but I want 9/43.25 no shorter. Royal Pagaille will run his usual race but is probably not up to the level, while Corach Rambler could have a say if he is coming on for his seasonal debut.
The 15:15 at Ascot is another good example. I like how Triple Trade is progressing, but I was torn between him and Frere D'Armes, and the latter has a hold over me from last season when I thought he was tremendously well-handicapped and surely worthy of a rating in the 140s. Still, he was disappointing here in April behind Black Gerry and folded tamely at Ayr. It was a case of twice bitten.
Still, he shaped well on return behind Boothill and may come on a good deal for that outing. He is now eight pounds better off with that runner, including Tristan Durrell's claims of five, 13 lbs. Is that enough? The combination of race fitness and weight may prove so. He is also better off at the weights with Aucunrisque for beating him at Newbury last year.
He is hard to ignore on a weight and measure scale, but I want to see him finish off a race before backing him, and hopefully, today will show more spark because I'd be keen on him if he runs at the Newbury meeting next week.
I am at Haydock for the Betfair team on Saturday, so Sunday's column may be out late Sunday morning.
Kamsinas - currently SP on the Betfair Sportsbook - can return to winning ways, having put in an improved effort at Cheltenham 29 days ago to chase home a well-positioned winner.
He clocked an almost identical circuit time and closing splits as winner Lookaway, and given he was squeezed for room on the home bend and forced wide around rivals, it's an effort that was worth upgrading.
What was most impressive was his jumping over the final two flights, which was fast and fluent, and he stuck to the task up the hill, strongly suggesting another improved performance could be around the corner.
He has already run into the high 120s, which may be enough to win this, and it bodes well that the winner ran second next time in the highly competitive Greatwood Hurdle.
The angle with Kamsinas is this Haydock track, which features three hurdles in the home straight and is a jumping test at speed. That could prove the difference today and see him get the better of the not-so-straightforward Bowenspark, who clocked a good number at Stratford when last seen 23 days ago. Still, his jumping will come under serious pressure in this contest, and he has looked like a horse that will want further than this sharp 2m.
The selection is taken to build on his promising start to the season for last year's winning owner connections, and he could make up into a useful prospect. Primoz looks short enough in the betting, considering he ran a very slow circuit at Ayr and was well positioned when given a soft lead, winning a race that turned into a dash over the final two flights.
Making Headway is another to consider for shrewd connections, and he is a possible improver.
Still, all will need to improve to reach the level of the selection, so any 11/43.75 or bigger appeals.
Gaillard Du Mesnil's - 6/42.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - experience in this sphere as a third-season chaser will hold him in excellent stead, and he is readily fancied to take care of a couple of inexperienced Novices.
This looks like a good bit of placing from Willie Mullins, and the Grade 1 winning chaser still comes out well clear on weight-adjusted ratings despite the penalty. This time last year, he made his return to action in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase when second to the excellent Mighty Potter, and his five-length third in the same season in the Brown Advisory behind L'Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor sets a lofty standard in this contest.
It's positive to see Patrick Mullins come over and take the ride, and given his capability to run into the high 150s consistently - he makes plenty of appeal.
Apple Away and Grey Dawning will need to run to around 150 to win this, and if they do, then you want to be getting on them for the Cheltenham Festival.
The class horse has won this race for the last ten years - usually from the Paul Nicholls yard and Willie Mullins can emulate that success today.
The trip is no concern. His record over this 2m5f distance is excellent. He was third to Mighty Potter in the Grade 1 Ladbroke Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, second to Mighty Potter in the Grade 1 Drinmore, and third to Galopin Des Champs in the Grade 1 Novice Chase at the 2022 Dublin Racing Festival. He is a Ballymore runner-up and is the class act in the field. The form is miles clear, and this is a race for horses that have not won more than two chase races, so it looks like an excellent place for Willie Mullins to get a win on the board.
When Gaillard Du Mesnil had the opportunity to win, he got the job done. This is by far his easiest task to date.
This looks like a fantastic opportunity for Strong Leader - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - to kick start his season and return to winning ways.
I was very much in the Goshen camp in his last start over hurdles when beaten a neck by Knappers Hill at Sandown when, frustratingly, Jamie Moore decided to hold him up in a steadily run race instead of reverting to his typical front-running style. He could prove hard to beat if Niall Houlihan reverts to those tactics.
However, the drying ground is a negative for Goshen, as is his penalty while he was well down the field on the flat at Newmarket. Olly Muprhy's runner, Strong Leader, has plenty of upside and is worth another chance, having flopped in the Welsh National at Ffos Las last time with that run too bad to be true.
The drying ground is very much in his favour, as is this move up in the distance, which could spark improvement, having looked like one to keep on the side at Aintree when steaming home from off the pace. He should be closer to the favourite in this market, while the ratings suggest he doesn't have too much to find at the weights, with further improvement almost a given after just eight starts.
I can't find a valid excuse for his seasonal return, but perhaps the return to a small field will suit him, and he is worth another chance on his previous promise but at 5/16.00 or bigger.
Goshen, is feared the most, with my old pal Sceau Royal showing signs of decline, Theatre Glory unable to win a slowly run affair at Sandown and finishing behind Gary Moore's runner. At the same time, it's hard to see Blueking D'Oroux running into the 150s here.
Crambo - currently 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - won with any amount in hand at Aintree on his seasonal return under very minimal pressure from Conor Brace, and it's clear this race has been on connections' mind for some time.
He is unexposed at three miles and looks like a dour stayer in the making, highlighted by his excellent Novice Hurdle final win at Sandown, where he clocked a much faster circuit time than the Imperial Cup winner.
The six-year-old has the potential to make it out of the handicap ranks, which is evident by how strongly he travelled through a Grade 1 contest at Aintree before being badly hampered by the fall of another rival at a crucial stage. Crambo's only real blip came in the Challow Hurdle when pulled up, but he quickly had a wind surgery following that, so it's highly likely that was the cause. He is worth keeping on the right side of as he climbs the ranks, and while he saddles a good bit of weight here, there could be any amount to come.
Slate Lane is feared and could be anything, but it is hard to weigh up. I've had a small saver on Goshhowposh who looks well handicapped under normal circumstances, but Willie Mullins' Fine Margin could be anything also, so I don't want to throw too much cash at this race.
Money will inevitably come for Slate Lane and Fine Margin, so I am happy to hope for 7/24.50 or 4/15.00 on Crambo at BSP.
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