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Two unexposed chasers to back
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Murphy's Novice is expected to improve significantly for the move to fences
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McCain and Hughes the combo to back at Newcastle
There are some dodgy old races at Wincanton today, and while I am typically keen to get stuck in at the course, I have decided to let it play out. I was very interested in Scarface at 12:55, but I must figure out his correct trip. Nicky Henderson's Pawapuri interested me in the 14:05, having been in far deeper company than this last season. Still, the nature of the trainer and jock combination has left little value in the odds-on price. I'd take a punt on her at 2/13.00, but no shorter.
Later on the card at 14:40, I felt Venetia Williams' Tanganyika was short enough while Kilaloan was of interest but was poor at Bath on the flat, so it's no surprise to see the cheekpieces go on. In contrast, Honneur D'Ajonc could go well back over hurdles at this venue but has a shocking first-time-out record.
Instead, I turned to 15:15 and was surprised to see Balko Saint a fair price for Jane Williams, particularly given he has finished ahead of the favourite on his last visit here. He is well treated on that evidence and likes this track, while the drying ground is definitely in his favour.
There are many positives, other than I can't understand why connections want to claim seven off his back when regular rider David Noonan is riding for the trainer in the earlier race. I thought perhaps he had a dinner reservation. Until I saw him riding in the last for David Pipe, I opted to leave my favourite venue alone.
14:15 Market Rasen - Back The Same @ BSP 1pt
This is wide open, and those with experience don't set the bar too high, so it might be worth taking a chance with Olly Murphy's The Same - currently SP on the Betfair Sportsbook - who made a promising start to rule life in three hurdle outings earlier this year. This former winning Point to Point could now kick on handicap debut switched to fences.
He offered plenty of promise, particularly on his latest outing at Ffos Las in May when pulling clear with a useful improver in a good time figure under a penalty and now returned to the scene of his hurdle demolition job on rules debut after six months off the track he is expected to step forward.
None of these looks particularly well treated, although Rocky Lake, despite edging left, ran well enough on return when better than the bare result but had little excuse not to get the job done when in poll position at Kempton and is now 0-5. It's also concerning that the second and third have both been beaten next time out, and while the winner has gone in again, he was having his 15th start over fences.
Hall Lane is one to watch today with an eye to the future, but one suspects Olly Murphy will have The Same ready to roll for the first time out, having wasted little time over the smaller obstacles. Expect money for Peejaybee - they always back him.
I'd happily play at 2/13.00 or bigger, but It's hard to know what the market will do, so I will back at BSP.
15:00 Newcastle - Back Present Fair @ BSP 1pt
Low-graded stuff here, but Present Fair - currently 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has been on the radar for some time as a potential improver for the switch to fences. With his seasonal return under his belt, he might be worth chancing to build on that encouraging effort with Brian Hughes back in the saddle.
The six-year-old offered plenty of promise in Novice and Maiden hurdles last season but needed to finish out his races. Still, with a recent wind surgery, he ran on strongly at Sedgefield under a useful claimer, suggesting he would improve for the outing.
That Sedgefield run was his handicap and chase debut, and in receipt of plenty of weight today, he could be about to strike under optimal conditions. The former point-to-point winner is almost certain to revert to prominent tactics now race fit (made all in hurdles and point to points), and he sits on a favourable rating on the balance of his hurdle form, particularly that of his Wetherby fourth to the 120-rated Etalon.
He is eligible for lesser races than this Class 3 contest but is unexposed for connections with a 30% strike rate at this venue in the last five years. He looks worth chancing at anything bigger than 3/14.00, but again, he will go only so short, so I am happy to take BSP, and this market has some sorting out to do.
Read Cheltenham Festival Focus Week Three Here.
Recommended bets
Back The Same to win the 14:15 at Market Rasen @ BSP 1pt win
Back Present Fair to win the 15:00 at Newcastle @ BSP 1pt win
DARYL'S P/L
Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update December 1st
Advised Stakes = +123.42pts ROI 11.1%
BSP = +114.7pts ROI +10.34%