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Wildfell 12/113.00 is far too big of a price to bounce back
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Ravenscraig Castle takes a big drop in grade
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Cakewalk can prove ahead of the handicapper
14:30 Ayr - Back Ravenscraig Castle 7/24.50 0.5pt
Ravenscraig Castle - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - needs forgiving a tame finishing effort over course and distance 14 days ago, but this is a significant drop in grade for him following the handicapper relenting four pounds, allowing him to sneak into this Class 5 event.
As I have said before, four pounds is neither here nor there regarding horses being "well-handicapped" unless it allows them a chance in an easier race. That is the case for the six-year-old who drops from a strong Class 3 event into this Class 5 0-75.
This is the lowest grade of handicap he has contested since scoring at Carlisle in 2021, and another reason to expect an improved performance is the return of the tongue tie. That headgear has been left off the last twice, and the return of the visor, which hasn't been applied since running at York in the Class 2 Sky Bet Handicap when a creditable ninth, having been short of room, is also back on.
The first-time visor saw him run a narrow neck second here last July in a good Class 3 when rated as high as 83, and that headgear saw him go close at Haydock and Hamilton following that effort in Class 4 company.
Today, everything looks in place for a bigger effort, and Shay Farmer is fair value for a five-pound claim. The selection has finished first or second below Class 3 level in handicaps at this track, so he looks good to take care of some rivals who have a little to prove.
Glasses Up could go well back up in trip but has been behind the selection when they previously met, and there is little between them at the weights today.
7/24.50 or bigger is acceptable.
14:30 Ayr - Back Ravenscraig Castle
17:25 Ayr - Back Wildfell @ 12/113.00 1pt
The last time Wildfell - 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - ran over 1m on turf was in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket from out of the handicap at 100/1101.00. He finished in the final third there, but his previous run over 1m was a narrow second at the Goodwood festival behind one now rated 19 lb higher in the handicap before that was in Listed company and before that, a victory at Doncaster on the straight mile.
He remains unexposed at this 1m trip on turf, and there was encouragement despite his inability to match the pace of the principals when returning to the track from three months off at Doncaster last time.
The handicapper has been quick to relent, dropping from a high of 91 competing in Class 2 company to being down to 77 and falling into Class 5 company despite only running on turf twice since in his last eight runs.
One was over an inadequate six furlongs at Ascot in May; the other was his most recent outing.
He caught the eye on multiple occasions last year over today's trip on the AW, and there's good reason to think he is not done with yet as he drops back to Class 5 company for the first time since May 2023.
The blinkers are added today to help him be more alert when coming out of the gates (his Sire Tasleet won in first-time cheek-pieces), and he is bred to improve for 1m and further. He offers a little value in a tricky race. He is more than double the price he should be, so back the selection at 6/17.00 or bigger.
17:25 Ayr - Back Wildfell
21:00 Beverley - Back Cakewalk @ 9/25.50 1pt (NAP)
Cakewalk - 9/25.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - showed enough in a couple of strong Novice and Maiden races to think that she can improve for the move into handicaps and being bred to be much better than this opening rating of 68, and the yard holding a 38% strike rate at Beverley, today looks the day to catch her.
She went down as an eye-catcher in her first two outings of the year, and with three fairly quick runs inside five weeks for a handicap mark, she is likely ready to strike. Her debut on the AW was very eye-catching, coming from well off an ordinary gallop to be tenderly handled and beaten just six lengths by three horses rated 79 and 82. The Doncaster outing looked to stretch her stamina at this stage in her career, but she moved through the race well, and that has worked out to be useful form.
The return to a sounder surface for the daughter of Sea The Stars is a positive move, and Harry Davies (18% strike rate) has been enlisted for the ride - which is his only ride of the day. I expect Cakewalk to go forward today and be too well-handicapped for her older rivals to pass.
She appeals at 5/23.50 or bigger to improve past more exposed rivals.
21:00 Beverley - Back Cakewalk
Now Read: More Horse Racing Tips Here.
Recommended bets
Back Ravenscraig Castle to win the 14:30 at Ayr @ 7/24.50 0.5pt win
Back Wildfell to win the 17:25 at Ayr @ 12/113.00 1pt win
Back Cakewalk to win the 21:00 at Beverley @ 9/25.50 1pt win
DARYL'S P/L
2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) AUG 1st
2024 P/L = +76.04 ROI 12.81%
BSP P/L = +62.9 ROI 10.60%
2024 P/L Ante-post = +4
DARYL'S P/L HISTORY
2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI
2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI
2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI
2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%