Daryl Carter's Tips: Handicap debutant 15/8 looks thrown in at Chepstow

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Daryl Carter has three bets on Thursday and is looking for a hattrick of winning NAPs.

Daryl Carter heads into Thursday with three bets and is looking for three consecutive winning NAPS with his Chepstow selection...

  • Daryl says his Chepstow NAP could be thrown in

  • Likes two handicap debutants

  • And says Ernies Valentine is the value at Epsom


15:00 Chepstow - Back Eyeshadow @ 15/82.88 2pt win

Harry And Roger Charlton have clearly had handicaps in mind for Eyeshadow - 15/82.88 on the Betfair Sportsbook - and their well-bred daughter of Expert Eye becomes of firm interest now tackling handicaps off what looks like a very workable mark of 67.

Today's contest looks like a perfect spot for her, having caught the eye at Thirsk 15 days ago under tender handling over this distance in a race where it paid to be on the sharp end.

The three pace setters finished out in those positions at Thirsk, but Richard Kingscote's mount caught the eye, staying on under very minimal pressure to be beaten just five lengths.

The winner had previously shaped well in a good Newbury Novice. At the same time, the second, Mubhijah, despite being a Maiden, has some very strong form, having been narrowly touched off by the likes of Chelsea Green (89) and Dream Of Love (102) as a two-year-old and the latter saw today's Chorus Line well held.

This season the form of Mubhijah form has continued to read strikingly, having met Urban Decoy at Southwell - in third was Spring Fever (95) - and then Royal Dubai (92) in her following race.

The race at Thirsk has an excellent look to it. Mubhijah is rated 78, and the third Laoisman is also rated 78, meaning this opening rating of 67 must surely be well within reach for the selection, and she could be thrown in on handicap debut with natural progression.

Eyeshadow has progressed with each outing, so there is every reason to think there's more to come, and it's indeed only a matter of time before she gets in the winner's enclosure.

If her latest performance is anything to go by, it will likely be today. Back her no shorter than 11/102.11.

Back Eyeshadow @ 15/82.88

Bet now

16:40 Chepstow - Back Dalatara @ 10/111.00 0.5pt e/w

Queensland Boy went into my tracker when running in Novice events under Ben Sanderson, who did everything he could to get him beat. He made a good handicap debut when denied a clear run, but every man and their dog saw that. He has been priced accordingly here in a bid to get off the mark, so I am not going to throw him in here for the sake of it, but for clarity, anything 3/14.00 or more significant would appeal during the betting day.

Instead, the one that looks overpriced from an each-way perspective is Dalatara - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook. She has gone off at odds of 66/1, 150/1 and 100/1 on her three starts, but she caught the eye at Nottingham despite her rider losing his irons, and she has undoubtedly been trained with handicaps in mind.

She has stacks of stamina in her breeding, so her run at a tight track like Chester last time over seven furlongs would never be her bag. That's easily forgiven by me but clearly not the market, and she becomes of interest off this lowly opening mark of 60, now moved up to 1m2f for the first time.

She looks worth chancing on this handicap debut with Richard Kingscote, an eye-catching booking, and the yard has had a 23% strike rate with handicap debutants in the past 12 months.

Back her for small each-way stakes at no shorter than 8/19.00.

Back Dalatara @ 10/111.00

Bet now

19:00 Epsom - Back Ernies Valentine @ 4/15.00 1pt

This is a trappy little race, and one trainer Jim Boyle has won for the last two years with older horses, and this time relies on Secret Strength.

He arrives in much better form than he did when stone cold last in this 12 months ago in a race won by his stablemate, but he is a little wayward. He may have been flattered by his track position at Newbury, while he was undoubtedly flattered here on his penultimate start when held up off a blistering pace.

Alwazwar is unlikely to handle this track. He is a big unit of a horse, while Little Boy Blue needs to find more to defy this rating and is vulnerable to something.

This race is crying out for something to take a step forward, and Metahorse is a poor favourite. It could be Roger Varian's three-year-old Cobalt Blue, who has been a slow burner this year but took a step back in the right direction at Chester and has won here. Still, the race he won at this venue saw him well-positioned in a sprint contest, and his form suggests the handicapper might hold him at present.

This is likely to be a strongly run affair, so it might be worth taking a chance with Ernie's Valentine - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook. He was left poorly placed when dropping back to six furlongs at Newmarket last time and gave the impression he could have done with a stronger pace at Leicester and Goodwood when not disgraced - and that form is good enough to land this.

At the back end of last year, he chased home Meishar (91) at Lingfield when getting a strong pace over seven furlongs, and it was only nose that saw him denied with Witch Hunter (108) in behind along with today's rival G'Daay.

He has yet to taste the Epsom turf, but given the similarities between here and Lingfield, he might enjoy swinging off this bend and is a well-balanced horse. The booking of William Buick is, of course, a positive, and he could finally have this race set up for his strong finishing effort. He can win a race like this, and Buick's race riding could prove the difference. Back him no shorter than 5/16.00.

Back Ernies Valentine @ 4/15.00

Bet now

Check out Alan Dudman's Daily Double for Thursday here.


Recommended bets

Back Eyeshadow to win the 15:00 at Chepstow @ 15/82.88 2pt win

Back Dalatara each way the 16:40 at Chepstow @ 10/111.00 0.5pt e/w

Back Ernies Valentine to win the 19:00 at Epsom @ 4/15.00 1pt win

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