Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter: 10/1 NAP course winner hard to beat

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has a Chester NAP.

Daryl Carter heads to Chester on Thursday for four selections and looks to a previous course winner for his 10/1 NAP of the day...

  • Four to back on Day 2 at Chester up to 28/129.00

  • Speedy God's Window a rare runner for Gosden in Dee Stakes

  • Well-handicapped NAP Dream Harder has a perfect set-up to score


14:35 Chester - Back Witness Stand @ 28/129.00 1pt

A chance is given to Witness Stand - 28/129.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who didn't shape at all badly on seasonal return at Kempton for his first crack at an AW contest and unfortunately bumped into the subsequent 2,000 Guineas winner Notable Speech.

The 1m trip looked to stretch his stamina, and the race was messy, turning into a dash inside the two-furlong pole. It's worth putting a line through that with fitness now on his side, returning to turf, and a venue he scored so well at on his racecourse debut.

He was given some stiff tasks last season but held his form well, finishing his two-year-old career with a strong second in the Group 3 Horris Hill on heavy ground at Newmarket. He rolled around in the dip that day and was hampered by the winner drifting left into his path.

That form has worked out ok, and even the eighth has run well off of a rating in the high 90s, so this mark of 97 may be within him despite what the market suggests.

The angle to him could be getting back on a sounder surface for the first time over this trip, given he is by Expert Eye who relished quick ground.

This is the first time he has tasted genuine good ground since his debut, having run on soft/heavy or the slower side of good since then. Today's sharper track will suit him, and Daniel Tudhope will take back over in the saddle, while the drop in grade is another positive.

He is not a no-hoper, as the market suggests at the time of writing, and any 20/121.00 or bigger is acceptable.

15:05 Chester - Back God's Window @ 11/53.20 1.5pt

John and Thady Gosden potentially have a brilliant one on their hands with God's Window - 11/53.20 on the Betfair Sportsbook - and he impressed with a straightforward seasonal return at Nottingham when effortlessly toiling with inferior rivals.

That is no form line to judge him on, but it did show he was fit and well, and it would have put him straight for this contest. This is just the second runner for the yard in the last ten years in this race, with the other beaten a short head at 10/111.91 in 2016.

God's Window is perhaps better judged on his excellent third to Ancient Wisdom in the Doncaster Group 1 Futurity Trophy Stakes. He lost ground out of the gates and was the only horse finishing with running left, having suffered a poor position in a race that was run at a stop-start gallop and only got going from the three-furlong marker, putting him at a disadvantage.

The contest winner, Ancient Wisdom, was off the back of an emphatic Group 3 victory, but the selection was the one to take from the race, finding the finish line coming too quickly.

That effort was worth marking up, and he has a good blend of speed and stamina. Today's move up in distance to ten furlongs will surely prompt further improvement, and today's sharp track is an ideal opportunity to implement the trip move given speed is an asset.

There's plenty of promise amongst his rivals. The penalised Jayarebe looked good at Newmarket, and Bracken's Laugh was similar at Chelmsford. However, the former may have been favoured by running up with the pace at Newmarket and the latter the opposite, picking up the pieces at Chelmsford, and this is a far different scenario.

The Doncaster form from the selection is just about the best on offer, and with these extra two-and-a-half furlongs likely to see him in a better light, he gets the vote to come out on top.

2/13.00 or more significant is a fair price.


15:40 Chester - Back Alsakib @ 6/17.00 1pt

Alsakib - 6/17.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - showed up well on seasonal return at Newbury and could have done with a stronger pace to make it a stiffer stamina test. I want to keep him on the side this season over middle-distance and staying trips as he improves through the ranks.

He was tapped for toe at a crucial stage in the race at Newbury but finished off his race, leaving the impression he would strip fitter for it.

He was a big improver last season and ended his year in Britain as a good winner for this column at Newmarket despite the ground going against him at the final hour. He was a big eye-catcher last term over ten furlongs at Goodwood when continuously denied a clear run behind the now 113-rated Royal Rhyme, suggesting he is not out of his depth at this level despite having plenty to find on the official figures. Still, with his recent run under his belt, he looks a sure-fire improver.

The move up in distance is a big positive for his chances, and he won at this venue last year, although I don't add this track to the positives of his chances. The drying ground, though, is one tick in the correct box and perhaps one against the favourite Arrest, who desperately needed soft in the going description last season.

Point Lonsdale rates a significant danger returning from his travels, having won at this meeting last term and holding some of the strongest form in defeat last year, but it didn't look like he was crying out for a stiffer stamina test then. Perhaps Deauville Legend, who has a fantastic record when fresh, is the horse to fear most, but I can't say I like the new headgear on one that is so genuine, and he didn't take too well to cheek-pieces at Windsor on his previous outing.

It's competitive, but a chance is taken with the potential improver in the field. I'd have a basement price of 6/17.00.


16:10 Chester - Back Dream Harder @ 10/111.00 1.5pt e/w (NAP) (4 places)

Dream Harder - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has run two striking races at this venue and back down in class and returned to the turf, is fancied to go in off of a fair-looking mark of 88.

The five-year-old has been granted a fair draw in stall five and should prove fit from two spins on the AW this spring. This race is wide open, and he certainly has scope from a rating in the 80s, as proven when a very unlucky loser in the Racing League at Windsor in August having been continuously denied a clear run behind three horses who have since shot up the ratings.

He was fourth to Spirit Dancer, now a multiple Group 2 winner - including the Bahrain Trophy - and is rated 17lb higher. The second, Tiffany is rated 15 lbs higher, and the third, Tregony, is now rated 15 lbs higher.

That's a powerful piece of form, considering he is now two pounds lower just three runs later. He didn't look in love with the stiff finish at Beverly over a trip that stretches his stamina, and he shaped in need of his return outing at Wolverhampton before being drawn poorly at Kempton.

Today, he returns to Chester, where he bolted up on his last visit in July 2023, which sees the second and third higher in the handicap and was an unlucky loser before that to City Streak (7lb higher) in this race last year when continuously denied a passage.

In the hope that his two runs this season have him fully tuned up and that he gains a prominent position (he raced in second when he won here last time) from stall five, he will have too much in hand to peg back.

Loyal Touch from a good draw heads the dangers if he can rediscover his early form. Inspiritus is progressive but has a little to prove returned to turf and was well-positioned to strike at Lingfield when last seen.

I am happy to back him each way with the place part of the bet, offering fair value at 8/19.00 or bigger.


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Recommended bets

DARYL'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) May 1st

2024 P/L = +74.43 ROI 18.10%

BSP P/L = +79.1 ROI 19.34%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +4

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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