Daryl Carter's Tips: Dark Trooper 12/1 can storm Windsor rivals

Daryl heads into Monday with three bets.

Daryl Carter bounces into the new week with three Monday selections, including a course specialist over the sticks at Newton Abbot...

  • Daryl likes the chances of Twelfth Knight in Ayr's feature

  • He says coming back in trip will suit Dark Trooper at Windsor

  • A course specialist can strike at Newton Abbot


It's been a rough ten days, and I can't seem to get out of my own way at the moment, but the win of Araminta at Chantilly on Sunday has boosted my confidence and rest assured this tide will turn. For the moment, I can only apologise.

Right now, I will blame the bedding in period, as I seem to be overthinking many things. This is not a moan but an acknowledgement that it's not been the best week. Anyway...

15:45 Ayr - Back Twelth Knight @ 6/17.00 1pt win

A cracking renewal, but I can comfortably put a line through a fair few of these on account of soft ground, although cases can be made for a few with different angles.

I dabbled with course specialist Aberama Gold who has excuses for his latest Chester defeat, having suffered a wide passage and tends to give his running at this venue on varying ground conditions. Still, he has gone too hard upfront to set it up for some closers in several previous starts.

If he does, that would be good news for Illusionist, who was another I took a keen interest in returning to soft ground, having run well at Haydock upped to six furlongs but looked outpaced when the taps got turned on. The sectionals would confirm that visual impression, having clocked the second fastest final furlong time on a surface that wouldn't have suited - he could be about to return to form.

Still, I suspect a pace collapse over five furlongs sees him to best effect, and a few of these may prove stronger at the death while his form ties in with Musical Society very closely.

The horse that clocked the fastest final furlong at Haydock in the race mentioned above was Fools Rush In, who must be of interest with the tongue-tie and cheek-pieces combination returning for the first time this season and he has fallen to a handy mark of 87.

Six of his seven victories have come with some headgear applied, and his soft ground form figures read extremely well.

His latest effort came off an 11 lbs higher handicap mark at Doncaster in September last year when tackling 6 1/2 furlongs in a hot Class 2 contest when touched off three lengths by Asjad - a soft ground specialist and before that last July, he was narrowly beaten a short head by Tacarib Bay over seven furlongs and today could be the start of a revival.

However, the fact that Paul Mulrennan passes him over for Abduction could be a hint, and he probably isn't a six-furlong horse at heart. After all, Abduction had finished ahead of Fools Rush In on multiple occasions, including in this headgear combo and on their latest meeting at Pontefract last month when Mulrennan suffered a wide trip.

He went back up to seven furlongs last time at Haydock but could never get into the race from off the pace, and he remains one to be optimistic about, particularly with a 50% record here. He will also want them to go hard.

Still, the clear form pick in this race is the Ayr virgin Twelfth Knight - 6/17.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who arrives in excellent heart and should have won at Ripon last time but for a blocked path in the closing stages.

He rates a solid proposition in this contest, given his prolific record on soft ground with form figures of 112 in his entire career and has given the impression this season that he is on an upward curve.

He scored at Ripon in May and Redcar in April on deep ground, and the latter form looks particularly strong. Perhaps he took advantage of the lack of fitness of subsequent winner Bielsa, but that one does have a strong record fresh.

There was little excuse for the fourth, Magical Spirit, who was race-fit and boosted the form next time when scoring at Doncaster, while Magical Spirit (3rd) and Bielsa (1st) finished within two lengths at York in the Churchill Tyres Handicap in May and splitting that pair was Lethal Levi - unlucky not to finish closer than six lengths off the winner in the Wokingham.

All in all, he makes plenty of appeal with conditions in his favour despite having not raced here at Ayr, and there's scope in this rating of 88. Back him no shorter than 9/25.50. Illusionist is next on the list ahead of Abduction.

Back Twelfth Knight @ 6/17.00

Bet now

16:35 Newton Abbot - Back Romanor @ 15/82.88 1.5pt

It's a tricky contest, but this can go to Romanor - 15/82.88 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who should relish the return to further, having stuck to the task powerfully over 2m at Stratford last time in a deeper contest than this.

He has been building to a bigger performance in three starts this term, and returning to this Newton Abbot venue that has seen him a winner three times from seven starts is a good move by connections.

The return to a small field should do him no harm, and the drop in grade is another box ticked.

He ideally appeals at 11/82.38 and no shorter, given the staking plan today, but 6/52.20 and bigger is ok.

Back Romanor @ 15/82.88

Bet now

19:10 Windsor - Back Dark Trooper @ 12/113.00 1pt win

I've long been a fan of Dark Trooper - 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - and he looks worth siding with this move back down to six furlongs the angle into his chance.

He shaped well behind the useful Havana Blue at Newmarket over seven furlongs last time on his first start on turf as a three-year-old. Still, he couldn't match that rival in the closing stages despite putting in some good mid-race sectionals - that rival will easily be worth a rating of 100 when the time comes.

The overall time of that race and his closing sectional suggest that he wants to return in distance. This would concur with his speed to win at Kempton from the rear of the field in a very slowly run affair back in January.

He returns to Windsor, where he ran a fine race over this distance in a Nursery Handicap last October as a two-year-old chasing home Reward Smile (84) and The Big Bard - a recent Ascot Saturday winner off 92 - and his rider dropped his whip on that occasion.

Being by Dark Angel, he shouldn't mind any cut in the ground and off this tempting mark of 83 in receipt of his weight-for-age allowance - he could cause a surprise back to what is likely his optimal trip.

The favourite Coco Bear returns from a break and likes to be held up, and that should give the selection the first run if they continue with prominent tactics down in distance.

Back him no shorter than 6/17.00, and anything 7/18.00 or bigger is fine.

Back Dark Trooper @ 12/113.00

Bet now

Recommended bets

Back Twelfth Knight to win the 15:45 at Ayr @ 6/17.00 1pt win

Back Romanor to win the 16:35 at Newton Abbot @ 15/82.88 1.5pt win

Back Dark Trooper to win the 19:10 at Windsor @ 12/113.00 1pt win

DARYL'S P/L

Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly

Advised Stakes = +74pts ROI 10%

SP = -14.1pts ROI -2%

BSP = +119.7Ppts ROI +17.06%

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