Daryl Carter's Tips: Cracking Monday card at Carlisle, but Kempton offers the days best bet

• Asta La Pasta of interest at the off if going forward

• Unexpected Party looks good value at Carlisle @ 11/43.75 or bigger

• Holly can improve and down Mares at Kempton

There's a good card at Carlisle today, kicking off with the 12:00 Novices Handicap Chase. EBF Final runner-up Pic Roc makes his chasing debut for Ben Pauling following an excellent season over hurdles, including having today's leading market rival Asta La Pasta behind at Sandown on his penultimate outing. However, today, he must concede experience and race fitness to the Dan Skelton horse, who put in a good show on his chasing debut at Ffos Las 29 days ago. The six-year-old is entitled to improve for that run now up to a more suitable distance, and switching to a right-handed track is a positive.

I will look to play him at the off. He would be a selection today if not for the short price of 6/52.20 and the unknown about his running style. I hope Skelton kicks on at flag fall, making him a bet today at 11/82.38 or bigger.

14:00 Carlisle - Back Unexpected Party @ BSP 1pt

Kalif Du Berlais 1/12.00 makes his eagerly awaited chasing debut for Paul Nicholls. Still, he looks very short, considering his form is challenging to weigh up against some more experienced rivals who can easily run into the high 140s. It will take a big improvement from the four-year-old to land this speed test for one talked about as a future Gold Cup horse. His weight-for-age allowance of eight pounds is a big help.

Path d'Oroux's improvement has stalled, so even an eight-pound swing with Unexpected Party may not be enough here. The Skelton horse Unexpected Party should come on for his encouraging seasonal return at Aintree over a trip too far. The move back to 2m, for which he is unexposed, is a big positive with a race fitness edge over the favourite, and he is an attractive betting proposition and a track that tests speed and stamina.

This looks like a good placement by Dan Skelton, and I expect him to go very close, at least, particularly if they push forward with him.
He appeals at 11/43.75 or bigger, but I expect there to be confidence behind the favourite, so use BSP.

14:50 Kempton - Back Holly @ BSP 1pt

The only betting advisory at Kempton is Holly, who was the best of these over hurdles. She is worth another chance as the rank outsider of this field, having offered promise on her chasing debut here 22 days ago in a much stronger event than this. She did remarkably well considering her jumping errors, including at the first fence, which knocked her immediately out of stride.

She was making swift headway before a big blunder as she walked through the ninth. That race clocked an excellent speed figure, and she was tenderly handled. Despite the good pace set up here, they are unlikely to go the clip they went on her chasing debut, and a half-yard slower will help her greatly.

Richie McLernon gets on well with this mare. The selection is handicapped to go close from this low rating of 122, and she is entitled to improve for her latest seasonal return on the fitness front. There's plenty in her favour if she can get her jumping together, and she offers the most promise in this field. She did jump out to the left here last time, but that is uncharacteristic of her profile, and she is an improving seven-year-old. At 6/17.00 or bigger, she is worth chancing, but take BSP with the market pricing her between 6/17.00 and 9/110.00 at the time of writing 9.89/1 on the Betfair Exchange (for tiny money), although I would consider going as low as 6/17.00.

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