Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Burke improver to relish the move up in trip

Daryl Carter
Daryl Carter has one Tuesday selection

Daryl Carter has one selection on Tuesday and looks to Redcar for a Karl Burke potential improver moving up in distance and down in grade...

  • One Tuesday selection

  • The trip move is key to the form horse at Redcar

  • Haggas runner is considered the biggest threat


15:35 Redcar - Back Mach Ten @ BSP 1pt

There's very little for me to get stuck into today, and I want to avoid getting drawn into too many low-graded races in search of a winner. Of the 27 British flat races today, 22 are Class 5 or 6. I refuse to bet at that unpredictable level regularly.

Still, I found one bet I am willing to have on a bland day in Mach Ten, who has been knocking on the door. This event looks far more suitable for him to get off the mark in handicaps following a performance at Chester, which was worth upgrading, and the drop in grade could do the trick.

He was squeezed out at the start and found the hot early pace all too much around the sharp Roodee venue before meeting with interference on the home bend, so it's almost certainly worth putting a line through that run. His form at Wolverhampton when staying on fourth beaten under two lengths looks strong in the context of this race, and he has been crying out for a move up to 1m6f.

He can be forgiven his run at Doncaster in March after a break and a gelding operation. Outside of that run, he has been a steady improver and is related to nine winners, so he is expected to get off the mark in handicaps in due course.

This is the easiest assignment to date and the angle is the combination of dropping down in grade and going up in trip.

He looks the most solid option, having proven himself reliable under today's conditions. The 11/43.75 is acceptable, but I advise backing him using BSP as that is his basement mark. He must hold strong claims here, having already had Filibustering and Shadowofyoursmile (twice) behind.

While Mach Ten is a strong player, it's important to consider that Candle Wax, with opening odds of 3/14.00, is a horse for which the market has high expectations. Powerful connections and a low opening rating of just 51 indicate the upside in handicapping terms.

The trip move, the fitting of the blinkers, the gelding operation, and the switch to turf are all reasons to think he could significantly improve his form from last year. At the same time, William Haggas has a fair record at this venue.

The jockey booking of Hayley Turner is a slight head-scratcher, though (1-8), when Adam Farragher, who has ridden him the last twice, can do the weight but opts to ride at Brighton instead. It is impossible to price him, and he could go either way in the market on his seasonal debut.

Should the favourite falter and perhaps need the outing, Mach Ten is the likely benefactor, and he may be good enough on the latest evidence anyway, so he looks like the correct play.

The 11/43.75 is an absolute basement price, and it wouldn't surprise me if bigger were available on the race day.


Now Read: Epsom Derby Runner-by-Runner Guide: Daryl Carter's counting on Diego and Troy


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DARYL'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) June 1st

2024 P/L = +74.43 ROI 18.10%

BSP P/L = +79.1 ROI 19.34%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +4

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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