Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Appleby and Buick's Newmarket Dynasty not to be toppled

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter likes Noble Dynasty at Newmarket.

Daryl Carter tackles every ITV race on Saturday and has a host of selections, including a NAP at Newmarket who he expects to thrive up in grade...

  • City House is overpriced at Newcastle

  • Two stabs at the Northumberland Plate

  • Noble Dynasty to prove his metal in Group company

  • 3pt Chester selection added

A quick note to followers: The Chester selection has now been added @ 17:21

Newcastle Superboost

Talented sprinter Kinross is favourite to land the Group 3 contest at Newcastle at 14:04, and with form figures of 31122 it's hard not to see the 7yo involved in the finish.

The Betfair Sportsbook have super-boosted Kinross' price to finish in the top four from 1/31.33 to 1/12.00 so if you want to get involved then just click on the price in the below banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

13:35 Newcastle - Back City House @ 17/29.50 1pt e/w (4 places)

The ITV racing kicks off at Newcastle, and it was no surprise to see the less exposed William Haggas runner Wiltshire 9/25.50 heading the betting. When you tackle this race a little deeper, you can see why he has been thrust towards the head of the market despite being well beaten at Newbury 42 days ago. His previous form would see him hold every chance, but a career-best is now required to defy almost top weight in this tricky handicap against experienced sprinters.

Lir Speciale 14/115.00 caught the eye, but there is little evidence to suggest he has the pace to cope with the demands of this race, and the recent switch from Roger Varian to Stuart Williams is not an upgrade in my book.

Strike Red 18/119.00 of the outsiders looks a better bet as I don't think he wants to make the running as he did in the early part of the race in the Wokingham. Returned to the AW and being held up is the combination that has seen him to the best effect.

King's Lynn 8/19.00 was the selection I came down on for the Racing Only Bettor Podcast, with what could prove to be a good draw in stall 11. He has been knocking on the door in better races than this, and his third over course distance in May from 2 lb higher would be enough to see him be in the mix at the finish. He looks as though he needs all of six furlongs these days and is well handicapped on his past form despite not being the force of old.

I ended up having a change of heart from Kings Lynn. He is exposed these days, and he has already cost me plenty. Mind you, I don't want to lose the race should he spring back to life.

Instead, City House - 17/29.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - must be overpriced on his efforts on the AW, and he is another birthed well in stall 13 to grab the golden highway. He has already proven to be a better horse on the AW, with form figures of 212, and he has a bigger performance to come with such a lightly raced profile.

The form of his latest Kempton second to our Thursday selection Drama - how on earth was that beaten, by the way - looks useful three-year-old form, he was strong at the finish, and he gets a 7 lb weight-for-age-allowance.

There's plenty to like about City House, including his price so he is the correct play.

14:04 Newcastle - Back Kinross @ 7/24.50 1pt

This is a fascinating renewal, and I quickly struck off Albasheer, who looks to have done his winning for now. Never Just A Dream, Popmaster, Willem Twee, and Ballymount Boy quickly followed.

Cold Case was a little tougher to oppose because this race lacks pace. He could get his way on the sharp end of the gallop, but Clifford Lee seems to prefer Spycatcher. Still, it's hard to see where the pace pressure will come from, and for that reason, Fivethousandtoone and Montassib - reluctantly - were next off the list, as they would likely be coming too late off of a steady gallop.

I was disappointed when Spycatcher got caught on the line by Tiber Flow in this race last year despite the race lacking a solid gallop and the winner being a seven-furlong horse. That was my angle into this race last year. He will again be well positioned and has improved, so I could be wrong to pass over him. I have him in mind for the latter part of the season when the ground gets deep.

Ramazan is interesting but is vulnerable at this level. That left Kinross - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who we all know is expected to need his first outing of the season with bigger targets down the line. However, it may be significant that this is a marked drop in grade for his seasonal return, considering he made his seasonal debut in 2023 in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot on fast ground, and connections have opted not to do the same this time around despite that being his intended seasonal return.

Of course, in the curious case of Kinross, you could read that the opposite way.

However, given that connections were happy to run on fast ground last term in what was advertised as a prep run for later in the year, why not this? They have decided to lower their sights, which could mean they mean business, and 7/24.50 looks more than fair to find out. After all, Kinross holds by far the best form over six and seven furlongs than any of these, and Kingman's progeny has a good record on the AW.

Without overthinking things, I am happy to back Kinross at 7/24.50 or bigger.

14:15 Newmarket - No Bet

This was exceptionally tricky, and it does look significant that Ralph Beckett, who has won this race twice in the last four years, has booked William Buick for Tales Of The Heart (18% strike rate).

However, separating many of these is difficult, and Woodcote winner Teej A has done everything correctly. It's difficult to trust early two-year-old form, so despite her working out well, it's unwise to lay your hat on it with the amount of improvement each can make from one start to the next.
All in all, I found it difficult to have a strong opinion.

14:35 Newcastle - Back The Predictor @ 33/134.00 0.5pt e/w

A formerly Anthony Martin-trained duo heads affairs here, and it's easy to see why. The pair are now both trained by his sister, Cathy O'Leary, so don't be alarmed by thinking they have moved to an unknown trainer - take that how you will.

Alphonse Le Grande is a strong starting point. He won the Chester Plate last time, and on paper, that looks like a stronger race than today's one, considering this contest is basically a 0-83. He won at Chester with plenty in hand. He is unexposed and on the upgrade as a stayer, and it's hard, having been proven on the AW surface, to make the case that an 8 lb rise will be enough to stop him.

Part of my thinking was that Chester was his target, and this was the yards other runner Belgoprince's target with a similar but more exposed profile. Kevin Blake gave a good inside bit into Belgoprince, whom he played as his joker in the Racing League in September last year from a rating of 72 (he went off favourite for a stronger race than this), and he was unfortunate on that occasion. From six pounds higher, he, too, must be taken seriously.

A good case can be made for my old friend Faylaq, who has been like putting money into a log fire for me over the years. He stays well and was a good third in this race last year, doing the best of those from off the gallop. Still, 8/19.00 makes me quiver.

I wanted to take a slight chance with The Predictor - 33/134.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - whose claims are less pressing than some, but he has certainly been lined up for this. He was not put in the race at Thirsk on his seasonal return (tenderly handled), but he was an excellent fourth in the Chester Plate last year on unfavoured soft ground.

That form would give him a shout from four pounds lower, and he was only narrowly touched off by an improver at Doncaster last year who ended the season 20 lb higher in the handicap, having demolished the likes of Single (runs in this race) at Ascot next time. We haven't seen the best of him yet, but with four places on offer from the guys at Betfair, I am happy to roll the dice at 25/126.00 or bigger.

14:50 Newmarket - No Bet

King Of Conquest looks to have this race at his mercy if he can repeat the form of his last two outings, where he had Aimeric and Deauville Legend behind. However, Deauville Legend can put up a bit more of a fight today, with connections finally binning the headgear and perhaps reverting to more patient tactics. The latter is a guess, but Tom Marquand is a positive jockey booking in place of Daniel Muscutt - who seems to be riding less and less for Ferguson in recent weeks.

Crystal Delight is going the right way for Harry Eustace and can't be entirely dismissed, but King Of Conquest looks the most likely winner. The 6/42.50 is possibly a little generous. However, it's too short for this column on a Saturday.

15:10 Newcastle - Back Grand Providence @ 8/19.00 0.5pt e/w (6 places)

A smashing renewal of this race with any amount to consider, including favourite Trooper Bisdee, who won with plenty in hand and sees a five-pound penalty get him in this race at the foot of the weights. He was slightly flattered when landing a Class 4 at Pontefract, having dictated a steady pace, and that may be an angle to take him on.

Spirit Mixer is handicapped to have a say, having only found Trueshan too good when second in this race last year, but I want to take a chance with two four-year-olds with more to offer.

Grand Providence - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - looks like an inviting price, having done too much too soon at Chester last time but still put in an improved effort on the figures when fifth to Zoffee in the Chester Cup.

She is the only filly in the lineup, but she is progressive. She will be much better suited to the AW surface rather than the fast ground at Chester, which saw her outpaced on the home turn. She relishes a stiff test of stamina, and she has done nothing but improve since this time last year.

She looks fairly treated in terms of the balance of her form and has hinted that there is a big pot in her, and at 8/19.00 or bigger, I am happy to play small each way.

15:10 Newcastle - Back True Legend @ 12/113.00 0.5pt e/w (6 places)

The other to consider is Sir Mark Prescott's True Legend - 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who was not seen to best effect on occasions last term when making the running and looking like a non-stayer in the Melrose at York.

However, isolating his performances that have seen him held up or ridden with a little more restraint sees him to good effect. He arrives off the back of an unlucky defeat at Goodwood to Tides Of War when connections removed the headgear for the first time since July last year, and he was staying on when making his seasonal debut behind the smart Aimeric.

The staying handicap/group form from last season is solid, and he looks to have been crying out for a test of this nature. He is handicapped to go well returning to the AW, and there is further progression in him at this distance.

He offers a bit of value at 8/19.00 or bigger.

15:25 Newmarket - Back Noble Dynasty @ 2/13.00 2pt

The better bets on ITV Racing come in the form of Noble Dynasty--2/13.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook--who bolted up over the twice subsequent winner (including the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot) English Oak when last seen, and he has optimal conditions to improve further today up in grade.

The angle with backing Noble Dynasty is when fresh, ideally at Newmarket, over 7f, and on fast ground. Combining those conditions after a 50-day break in the UK read 1112, with the only horse to have beaten him being Mutasaabeq. Combining the conditions of seven furlongs, good or better ground, and in the UK after 50 days or more, his record reads 11121, and one of those includes a ready victory here on the July course.

He holds potential after just 12 career starts and enjoys a small field, so he looks good value to make his mark at this level following his run 57 days ago. Pogo is most feared, but I expect him and Nostrum to clash for the lead. This has not been the place of work for Witch Hunter in the past, with two heavy defeats, so Tiber Flow gets the vote to fill the final place.
Back the selection at 13/82.63 or bigger.

15:35 Chester - Back Al Shabab Storm @ 3/14.00 3pt (NAP)

Al Shabab Storm - 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has not been granted the kindest of draws, but it won't prove detrimental in this small field. The three-year-old is firmly on the upgrade and would have landed a strong race at Goodwood last time but for hanging his chance away inside the final 100 yards. That form looks strong, with the winner beaten just four lengths when favourite for the Britannia next time at Royal Ascot, and the selection was better than the bare result.

We had a selection in that Goodwood race, and I mentioned that Al Shabab Storm needs to go left-handed. Today, he should be seen to much better effect, having returned to Chester, where he went ever so close on his penultimate start over six furlongs.

He finished with a flurry here in May behind Garfield Shadow when given plenty to do from a wide draw and having to travel widest of all to make his challenge, and the third has since given that form a boost. He looks well handicapped on the balance of his two runs to date, and he rates a confident bet that he will get the job done under Jason Watson today.

The selection had Jungle Mac well behind last term when the pair met at Goodwood, but he still rates a danger if he is coping with this sharper track with his recent form as strong. Al Shabab Storm should be too strong at the finish for Gunfighter and Ziggy's Condor. Blue Prince continues to run well but looks held on the recent form and doesn't seem to be progressing, so Sunfall can give him the most to think about under Silvestre De Sousa. However, Sunfall is far too short a price on the bare form, and this sharp track is not certain to suit.

The selection has a good record on good ground or better, holds strong course form and has proven himself ahead of the handicapper twice this term. He makes plenty of appeal at 9/43.25 or bigger.

15:40 Newcastle - No Bet

This looks very trappy, and I am none the wiser about why Richard Spencer's Giant heads the market. On the bare form, he has a bit to do in this company. Many arrive out of form or are exposed, though.

Still, that is not the case for United Approach 5/16.00, who is bred to improve for distance and steps up to seven furlongs from an encouraging run over six at Newbury on seasonal return.

I want to see headgear go on him, but that may come next time. Still, he is the most attractive proposition in this field despite being in an unfavoured draw in stall two. He can hang left, but he is a horse with lots of potential off this opening rating of 88 on just his second crack at a handicap. Surprisingly, he opened at 10/111.00, but that was just a rick, it seems, as he was immediately cut to 5/16.00. At that price, I can leave him alone.

A similar case can be made for Local Hero, who dotted up at Kempton last time, but his two best performances have now come at that venue, so it might be wise to tread lightly if you like him.

Eldrickjones is best on the AW, and he looks like a big price to back up his win over course and distance three runs back. He should go well but is vulnerable to an improver.

Now Read: Ryan Moore's thoughts on his Saturday rides here

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2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) JULY 1st

2024 P/L = +59.85.43 ROI 12.67%

BSP P/L = +64.5 ROI 13.66%

2024 P/L Ante-post = -1


2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%


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