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Two ante-post bets
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In Excelsis Deo can land the Paddy Power Gold Cup
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Look to old friend Does He Know on Sunday
There's no telling how good Roger Varian's Qazaq could be, and he must be taken seriously on the visual impression he has left the last twice on handicap debut from this rating of 89. However, this is a deep race to make your handicap debut, and an each-way chance is given to Lion Of War - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who has been on the radar for some time and took a big step back in the correct direction returned to the AW at Kempton last time.
The four-year-old held plenty of promise earlier in his career, including an excellent 3/4 length second to Burdett Road at last year's Royal Ascot meeting in the Golden Gates Handicap from one pound lower. This is a lesser race than that (class 3), and he has been gelded and fitted with blinkers, which could prompt continued improved form. However, the angle is the AW surface. He has had two outings on the AW - a ten-length victory at Newcastle and his latest narrow running-on second from a wide draw in stall nine at Kempton.
He has been granted an excellent low draw today at Southwell, and a prominent position over the favourite (drawn in stall 12) may give him the edge. He stays further than this 1m distance and is undoubtedly handicapped to have a big say. In the hope that this son of Roaring Lion can grab an advantageous early position and gain first run on the favourite, he looks good each-way value for a small staked punt under Billy Loughnane.
Play the selection at 6/17.00 or more significant but no shorter in this deep race.
19:30 Southwell - Back Lion Of War
Saturday's feature race has an attractive early look. I can imagine this might cut up with Protektorat running from a handicap mark of 167, putting seven of these out of the handicap.
Ginny's Destiny has been the big talking horse of the week for this race, and you can read Paul Nicholls' thoughts here. However, his profile says he has needed the run both years on his seasonal debut and not only that but he has improved for a run to the tune of 30lbs in previous years. The eight-year-old is respected and will be given every chance from the front, but I can't imagine that Harry Cobden will be allowed a soft lead. If he is, this could all be over because if he continues the progressive thread he showed last year, he is a 160-horse. Nicholls' other runner, Il Ridoto, is interesting in his second-time up record. His form figures on his second start read 241, and he goes well here, so he must be respected from a fair mark, but he is one of those out of the handicap.
I am sure plenty of people will look to 2022 winner Ga Law as the answer following an excellent prep run for this at Chepstow 35 days ago. He has excellent claims, and the ground has come in his favour. He will go well.
However, the first spot goes to the very well-handicapped In Excelsis Deo - 9/110.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who will be primed for this on his first run for 100 days. The six-year-old jumped poorly at Galway in a 22-runner event, but I am happy to ignore that outing and hope this race cuts up to a smaller field.
Harry Fry's runner was an outstanding winner at this venue in April in a brilliant time, and he was excruciatingly unlucky in the Cheltenham Plate. The race was not run to suit him, held up at the rear of the field, and he found all sorts of trouble. He needs to jump better, but he was a huge eye-catcher there, and his last run here was outstanding. He loves the good ground, is highly progressive and has gone well fresh, including here over course and distance when an eye-catcher behind Dancing On My Own over an inadequate 2m distance on last year's seasonal return.
He is unexposed at this distance and lightly raced, and with four places on offer, he is the each-way angle into the race. The one concern is whether he can go the early gallop set by Ginny's Destiny. However, if that horse is taken on, he will be staying on to pick up the pieces, and with the Sportsbook offering four places and each-way terms 1/4 odds, now is the correct time to bet him.
Back In Excelsis Deo to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup
The Sportsbook has opened Does He Know 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - too big, and he must be of interest in returning to the race he won two years ago following an excellent seasonal return at the track three weeks ago.
The nine-year-old shaped well for a long way before faltering for fitness, having got into a pace duel with Broadway Boy. These days, he may just need the run. Still, there's nothing of the quality that finished ahead of him last time, and he has optimal conditions with the drying surface to dominate these from the front.
It would be a surprise if anything could go his early gallop on good ground, so he should secure a lead, and I expect this race to cut up to a single-figure field. The selection is handicapped to have a big say and is straightforward so he can reclaim the race.
Back Does He Know to win the Holland Cooper Handicap Chase