Cheltenham Festival Focus: 33/1 chance can Triumph at the Festival

• 33/134.00 Triumph Hurdle hopeful for Daryl

• Mister Meggit is the leading British Novice Hurdler so far

• Avoid Farren Glory over fences

In week three, Daryl Carter looks back at the week that was, rounds up the notable action relevant to the Cheltenham Festival, and dives into what he says is the current stand-out British Novice Hurdler thus far. He also adds a 33/134.00 chance to his ante-post list, looks at the market movers and highlights this week's notable action.

A week of disappointments?

At Fairyhouse on Tuesday, Croke Park landed his Beginners Chase by half a length over Iris Emery, beating three rivals in a prolonged time. This was disappointing, and it would be surprising if he were up to the standard of a graded novice chase at the Cheltenham Festival. His task was made easier by his stablemate's withdrawal before the race, and Sequestered (4th) is blatantly looking for a handicap rating. He wouldn't be on the radar for the festival. He was reported to have bled after the race.

At Chepstow on Wednesday, the Champion Bumper eighth, Royal Infantry, made a winning start over hurdles at 4/91.44. However, this was run at a pedestrian pace. Royal Infantry crossed the line comfortably on top and will have many supporters following this effort but Supreme Novice Hurdle quotes even as big as 40/141.00 are well wide of the mark. He reached three from home 24 lengths slower than the division two winner, Jurancon, and only came home from three out to the finish around four lengths quicker. Compared to the 2m3f Maiden winner French Ship, Royal Infantry got to three out ten lengths slower. The Class 5 handicap hurdle winner Hedera Park (rated 88), who was held up stone-cold last in his field later on the card, got to three out on par.

There's no chance the handicapper could rate this hurdling debut from Royal Infantry higher than 118, leaving him at least 30lbs to be competitive in a Supreme Novice Hurdle. He is open to further improvement, but his future almost certainly will be over middle-distance to staying trips.

As for Jurancon and the very promising runner-up Tripoli Flyer, this performance can rate closer to the 130 mark, and considering the second was making his seasonal debut, he can be marked up closest to that rating. French Ship was average on the clock, beating Dan Skelton's Let It Rain, which was not asked for maximum effort. The mare was on the bridle between the third and second last when French Ship's rider was riding all out. She was ridden out under her hands and heels, and this performance was worth a rating of around 120, with a note to say that an improved effort from the runner-up is not to be used as a form boost for French Ship.

Fil Dor one to keep on side for Grand Annual

On Thursday at Clonmel, Fil Dor, runner-up to Saint Sam in the Clonmel Oil Chase, is worth a mention. He has been in the doldrums for some time now, but it would not surprise me if connections had one eye on the Grand Annual this season with a falling handicap rating. The six-year-old has shown little of his old spark, but he did run well enough in the Ryanair last term, and if they are clever, he may turn up at the festival with a rating in the 140s (currently 149).

El Cairos was an impressive bumper winner at Newbury on Thursday for Gary Moore and David Maxwell. He showed a tremendous turn of foot in the home straight, and while something like the Champion Bumper is a million miles from this level of form, he is worth highlighting.

Also at Newbury on Thursday, American Sniper won the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Qualifier. However, he must raise his rating of 120 to take up the "win and in" option before the final. A rating of 129 was the lowest that got into the race last year, but he won't be good enough.

JPR One Could develop into Britain's second-best 2m chaser

On Friday at Exeter, JPR One landed the Haldon Gold Cup at the expense of Djelo. Joe Tizzard's scorer could be one to keep on the side over 2m this season, and he could develop into Britain's second-best 2m chaser behind Jonbon. He is open to improvement; the first-time tongue-tie may have aided this performance. Good ground could be the key to him developing into a Champion Chaser 50/151.00, and people should not sleep on him. This victory was another boost to Gaelic Warrior's Arkle form, which has seen runners who finished behind him claim seven wins between them since Cheltenham.

At Gowran Park on Saturday, Henry De Bromhead's Nara made amends for her chasing debut fall by running out a compelling winner of the Mares Beginners Chase in an excellent time. Good ground looks beneficial to her, and she is well on the way to being a 140-plus Mare on this evidence. She is 50/151.00 for the Mares Chase. The caveat is that she has two high-150 mares in Dino Blue and Limerick Lace to contest with, but she should be taken seriously.

The result of Saturday's Rising Stars Novices' Chase at Wincanton was disappointing. Boombawn landed the contest over second-season novice Soul Icon with Handstands falling at three out. This is no more than high 130 to low 140 form.

At Sandown on Sunday, Jeriko Du Reponet was a Grade 2 winner over hurdles, and Nicky Henderson said in a stable tour that he "should be top-class" over fences, but things went wrong on this chasing debut.

He was a big market drifter from 1/51.20 out to 8/111.73 at SP. He disappeared before the race back to the saddling shed and made post time very late. The scenario was bizarre, and he ballooned the ditch (2nd), almost unseating his rider. He made mistakes throughout but was warming to his task before he walked through the last of the railway fences and was shortly pulled up. I wouldn't be too forgiving of this, as his hurdle form was only average. However, he did look the best of these despite his wayward jumping. He was reported to be fine after the race. Bizarre.

Farren Glory all smoke and mirrors

At Naas on Sunday, Farren Glory gave Inthepocket's form a good boost, but Gordon Elliott's runner will not reach the Grade 1 heights he did over hurdles in this sphere. Farren Glory was hesitant at his fences and slow from the landing side despite having the run of this race. He got to three out around 38 lengths slower than the Grade 3 Castle Chase won by Quilixios, and his circuit time was identically slow.

As for Quilixios, this was a good performance. He dominated from the front and ran out a convincing winner to enhance his seasonal return form figures to 11211. The runner-up Marine Nationale had no excuses and was well placed in this fairly run contest. However, it may not have been as bad as many say on the Twittersphere, given the quality of the winner first time out. Quilixious also holds a record at Naas reading 112, and it was possibly a career-best from the winning seven-year-old. Is Marine Nationale going to be the world-beater he looked when landing the Supreme Novice Hurdle? No, but he is still a useful horse, although he again didn't finish out his race from the back of the last to the line. He doesn't look natural to me over fences and looks to find them much more complex work than hurdles. It wouldn't surprise me if he did a Bob Olinger and went back over hurdles, but we all know how that works out.

Mister Meggit is the best British Novice we've seen thus far

A future star?

Dual bumper winner 𝐌𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐌𝐞𝐠𝐠𝐢𝐭 dazzles on his hurdling debut @AintreeRaces @JJONeillJnr | @oneill_racing pic.twitter.com/o2Bzdlk5ML

-- Racing TV (@RacingTV) November 9, 2024

Saturday's opening race at Aintree saw Britain provide its first genuine potential festival contender: Mister Meggit (I fancied him in this column for the Champion Bumper last year), who won head-in-chest over 2m4f.

He beat a handful of promising sorts on the bridle in a race that clocked the fastest circuit time on the card.

He cruised clear in the style of a top horse, and all things considered, it was baffling to see the Racing Post give him a first-look 113 RPR (since changed to 119). I had this performance rated closer to 129, putting him in the same bracket as the 2020 winner, Wilde About Oscar (132). His next target is the Challow Hurdle, and with an improved performance, he will be very tough to beat.

Surprisingly, Betfair does not have him priced for the Albert Bartlett, but he is 20/121.00 for the Gallaghers Novice Hurdle. However, he looked flat out for much of this race, and his stamina ultimately won him the day. He cruised to the line from the back of the last quicker than the 2m winner on the card and matched the 3m winner Harbour Lake while on the bridle.

The Albert Bartlett would appeal to this six-year-old, who looks like a smart prospect. However, he skipped Cheltenham last year in favour of Aintree, and he could do so again and go for the Mersey Novices Hurdle. So caution is advised. But a brilliant prospect with a performance backed up by the clock.

Back Fou de Toi @ 33/134.00 to win the Triumph Hurdle

It's the time of year to take some swings, and no doubt some will miss the target. I always try to get in early with the juveniles and hope for the best. Last year was Sir Gino 16/117.00, the year before was Blood Destiny 33/134.00, and the year before that was Vauban 16/117.00. The one thing they all have in common is that they are French recruits, and it's no different this year.

I am again looking to Willie Mullins, and his Fou de Toi 33/134.00 looks like a big price in the Triumph Hurdle market, and he has possibly achieved as much as the 6/17.00 favourite Willie De Houelle from the same yard.

The three-year-old gelding made an auspicious debut in Auteuil when third to a useful winner Apollon du Luy and Paul Nicholls' Sauvignon, who both scored in Listed company next time. He was given a big task, held up at the rear of the field, and made swift headway to the last, but eventually paid for the amount of ground he covered inside the final furlong and was outstayed. Still, this was a promising debut, considering he was green and conceded racecourse experience to two sound rivals, and the fourth was six lengths adrift and rated 60kg (x2 = 120).

The winner is rated 134, so it's wise to think the selection run to a rating of 130 on this debut and taking into account the potential improvement in the switch to Willie Mullins' yard and for the experience, it wouldn't take much more to see him make into a Triumph Hurdle candidate where running to 145 will see you go close.

Fou de Toi will run in the Donnelly colours, and given his level of form, I expect them to aim for a juvenile campaign. I'm not sure if it's a positive or a negative that he was left off the stable tour. Either way, he is overpriced in a market few know much about.

Market Movers

What's On This Week?

It's a quiet week until Cheltenham's November meeting kicks off on Friday. The Shloer Chase is the feature race on the card where a small field is expected as Jonbon returns (currently 3/14.00 favourite for the Champion Chase).

Potters Charm and Valgrand may go head to head in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle.

The Triumph Hurdle Trial will be of interest on Saturday at Cheltenham and the Arkle Trial.

No horses to namecheck this week.

Now Read: More Horse Racing Tips Here.