Daryl Carter's Tips: 8/1 Expect an Alien invasion at Kempton

• Elegan Man can prove himself a Group horse at the Curragh

• Karl Philippe is still unexposed over 3m

• Alien expected to score under optimal conditions at Kempton

16:05 Kempton - Back Karl Philippe @ BSP 1pt

Karl Philippe Showed the benefit of a wind surgery and a fitting of a tongue-tie 14 days ago at this venue when finishing with running left, and he left the impression that his rider should have been more aggressive with him.

In the hope that Jack Hogan presses on a little earlier for home this time, he is handicapped to have a big say, and it might be the right time to catch him, having had few opportunities on genuine good ground. His only other run on the ground, described as good, saw him score on a seasonal return in 2022 over Zanza.

He should be ridden prominently today and he will prove hard to pass under optimal conditions with an unexposed profile over three miles there could even be more improvement left in the nine-year-old.

He looks a fair price at his opening 10/34.33 but I would like to hold off and see if we can get bigger on the Betfair Exchange given it's been a long while since he has had a BSP of shorter than 4.1

16:10 Curragh - Back Elegant Man @ BSP 1pt

There was little between White Birch, Maxux and Village Voice in the Group 2 Alleged Stakes over course and distance last time, but it may pay to look outside of that form line and side with the unexposed Elegant Man.

He has something to prove switching to turf for the first time, but his action would give confidence that soft ground will prove to be no issue. He arrives on the back of an excellent weight-carrying handicap performance 38 days ago at Newcastle, and given he was drawn in the car park, keen through the early part of the race and fended off a rapid improver going away at the line, this level should not be beyond him.

The four-year-old is on a steep upward curve, and his second to Rebel's Romance - a twice subsequent winner, including the Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic - at Kempton in December on just his second career start is the strongest form line in this race. On that occasion, the selection was only in receipt of four pounds, was a conceeding experience and was worth marking up, having come from off the pace.

The percentage call is to treat Elegant Man as a very smart horse. This race looks there for the taking, with the possibility of an easy lead. Being on the sharp end of the pace is where you want to be at this venue. I hope connections continue with the tactics that worked so well at Newcastle and Dundalk the last two times, so he gets the vote.

Back the selection at 2/13.00 or bigger but I suspect there is price movement to come in this contest and given it's competitive nature use the BSP.

17:50 Kempton - Back Alien Storm @ 8/19.00 1.5pt (NAP)

h Alien Storm - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has been catching my eye this season, looking like a well-handicapped horse at times, and he might be worth siding with in an open affair, having run well here in the past.

He can't have been right here in March in the first time tongue-tie when jumping violently out to the left, and given he hasn't done that before at this venue, it's worth simply putting a line through.

He was only satisfactory at Plumpton last time, but it hinted that he was working his way back to form. I am not sure what happened after his hugely eye-catching run at Doncaster in January, but there must have been something a miss as he now shapes like a horse building back up to a bigger effort. His Doncaster fourth is fair form, and he sprinted home from the back of the last.

He had also previously shaped very well at Cheltenham when lacking the speed of the winner Our Champ. He had previously had that horse behind in a Novice contest (which may not have been Our Champ's true running) and the potentially useful Rewired - who was all out - and he stuffed today's favourite Inoui Machin at Taunton.

He was a good second to Russian Ruler at this venue last April, but he is a horse that has been crying out for a stiffer test of stamina, and this 2m5f trip should bring out further improvement. He must be fairly treated on his second here to Attacca (pulled 19 lengths clear of the remainder).

Today, under these ideal conditions, in an open field where a few have something to prove on recent efforts, he can put it all together.
Any 6/17.00 or bigger looks a good bet.

P/L UPDATE APRIL

I do apologise for dragging my feet with updating last month's P/L with Punchestown and the flat season starting, it's been a bit hectic. Still, below is an updated P/L for April.

April P/L
To advised prices = -8.85 ROI = -7.11%
To BSP = -20 ROI = -16.06%

2024 BY MONTHS
JAN
AP = +29.38 ROI = 33.59%
BSP = +9.5 ROI = 10.89%

FEB
AP = -20.52 ROI = -33.37%
BSP = -31.8 ROI -51.73%

MARCH
AP = +54.01 ROI = 50.25%
BSP = +73.4 ROI 68.32%

APRIL

AP = -8.85 ROI = -7.11%
BSP = -20 ROI = -16.06%

MAY (currently ongoing)
AP = +20 ROI = 74.43%
BSP +47.9 ROI = 171.19%

2024 up to and including May 5th

Advised Prices = +74.02 ROI = 18.10%
BSP = + 79.1 ROI = 19.34%

2024 BY DAY TO ADVISED PRICES

MON = -13.2 ROI = -40%
TUES = -6.07 ROI = -13.05%
WEDS = +6.75 ROI = +16.08%
THURS = -9.8 ROI = -17%
FRI = +43.68 ROI = +70.46%
SAT = +53.16 ROI = +44.86%
SUN = -0.3 ROI -0.71%

WIN/ EACH WAY BETS TO ADVISED PRICES

WIN = +57.12 ROI = 20.26%
E/W = +16.9 ROI = 13.31%

BY CODE TO ADVISED PRICES

AW = +0.32 ROI = 0.49%
CHASE = +35.1 ROI = 27.34%
HURDLE = +32.2 ROI = 20.62%
TURF = +10.8 ROI = 20.38%
BUMPER = -4.5 ROI -100%

More info on request as should be the standard for any tipster.

Now Read: Bath Racing Tips: Shoot for the stars