-
Etalon is ready to strike at Sandown
-
Oh My, he is well handicapped
-
Chance Nicholls' Quel to bounce back
-
*Ostrava Du Berlais added on Friday at 12:40
-
Racing... Only Bettor. Watch the latest episode now.
Venetia Williams' Ostrava Du Berlais - 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - looks like a handicapper going places and has impressed with two bloodless victories the last twice that the clock has backed up.
The seven-year-old mare has thrived since the wind surgery, the introduction of the hood, and the switch to fences, and she looks very well treated despite the nine-pound hike for a Taunton demolition job.
In my book, her rating was 126, and Racing Post has her at 128. So, despite the step-up in grade, she still looks to have plenty of mileage in this mark of 113.
Williams' French recruits tend to come good once switched to fences, and this one can't go unbacked at 2/13.00 or bigger--I expected her to be 13/82.63.
Xcitations is a horse I like to catch second or third time out and/or here at Sandown, so I expect the veteran to run well from a reduced rating. However, he is vulnerable to something with handicapping scope, which is the selection that I hope to prove challenging to beat.
12:40 Sandown - Back Ostrava Du Berlais
This can go to Dan Skelton's Etalon--7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook--who caught the eye at Cheltenham last time under a restrained ride. One suspects a return visit to the venue where he was an impressive winner last year for the same prize money as Cheltenham in a less competitive race is no coincidence.
He was a smart novice last term and recorded an outstanding time figure when bolting up at Sandown, but he has yet to have his favoured soft ground. The ground is highly likely an important factor to him as he lacks the gears of those at the top level over 2m, as seen when as short as 7/24.50 for the Haldon Gold Cup on his seasonal return.
There are several angles to consider for improved performance. First and most important is the soft ground at Sandown. His record on soft ground reads 11141 over obstacles, and he has yet to taste such a surface since his victory here last February. The second is the move up in trip. He is bred for this distance, and his sectional splits in multiple races confirm this is the correct move. Thirdly, the return to Sandown and, fourthly, the probable return to prominent tactics.
He is handicapped to have a big say, having been marked down as one of Britain's best novice chasers last term, and his stablemate is in here to keep him at a fair racing weight as he awaits bigger targets.
Providing he jumps soundly, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Etalon's chances. He makes stacks of appeals to return to the winner's enclosure, tackling a race where the similarly rated Hubrisko wants a sound surface, and the remainder would fit into a 0-130.
Back the selection at 5/23.50 or bigger.
13:50 Sandown - Back Etalon
Quel Destin - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is not one for maximum faith, but the angle has always been second time out following a seasonal break. The ten-year-old enters Veterans' Handicaps for the first time and is at his trainer's local track, and although pulled up last time, his record says it's best to forgive that effort.
He has formed figures at the second start of the season, reading 10211, since he was in Britain. The zero can be forgiven, considering he was off that year for 696 days and may have needed his first two runs, given the absence. Still, he scored on his third start. The runner-up effort came in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham. He prefers small fields, with all 12 of his victories coming with no more than 13 runners and 11 with seven or fewer.
He bounced back to win a second time following a wind operation like today in 2023. Harry Cobden should be able to grab an early lead, and he has favouring ground conditions.
He is worth chancing in a race where many have something to prove, and the track favours front-runners. Back the selection no shorter than 4/15.00.
14:40 Wincanton - Back Quel Destin
Philip Hobbs' Oh My Johnny - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - looks to have been handed a very lenient opening handicap rating of 116 as I have him rated at least 121.
There are multiple avenues to think the five-year-old is well handicapped. He scored on soft ground at Uttoxeter in a substantial time and beat a 106 Jonjo O'Neill horse 16 lengths. The time of the race was more than five seconds quicker than the division winner, Fingle Bridge, who had some useful previous bumper form, and it was quicker than handicap winner Lightningupourdays, who had previously been second to Challow Hurdle runner-up Wendigo.
On his penultimate start, he would have beaten two subsequent winners at Bangor if not for a final flight fall when up by the best part of two lengths. The eventual winner, Gentleman Bill, is rated 123, having won his handicap debut by four manageable lengths from a rating of 111. The second bolted up next time in a maiden hurdle at Warwick and is rated 125 and had previously been placed in a listed bumper and only two lengths behind Navajo Indy - the selection receives 12lb from Navajo Indy today.
The selection is unexposed and improving with every start, and he could prove hard to pass if he adopts the same front-running tactics here.
Navajo Indy and Spirits Bay are feared the most ahead of course-lover but exposed Hardy Du Seuil.
Back the selection at 11/43.75 or bigger.
15:35 Sandown - Back Oh My Johnny
Podcast selections
13:50 Sandown - Etalon
14:05 Wincanton - No bet
14:25 Sandown - Della Casa Lunga
14:40 Wincanton - Quel Destin
15:00 Sandown - Copperhead, Smarty Wild
15:15 Wincanton - No bet
15:35 Sandown - Oh My Johnny