Daryl Carter's Tips: 7/2 Crisford filly can put rivals in a spin

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Daryl Carter has two bets on Monday.

Daryl Carter returns to the flat on Monday and says both his horses are in with a big chance at Kempton...

  • Two bets on Monday, both at Kempton

  • Smart filly for the Crisford's is the one to be with

  • Max will be fully wound up for Kempton target


14:00 Kempton - Back Twirling @ 7/24.50 1pt

Simon And Ed Crisford targetted this race for a useful filly in 2022, so it's likely it's no accident that the return of the smart debut winner Twirling - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - comes in this race.

She has significant substance to her debut win over course and distance, with the runner-up now rated 93, the third rated 77 and the fourth rated 104. She was very inexperienced under pressure in the home straight, and it was only as she headed the runner-up that she put her head down and went on through the line.

She looks potentially useful on that limited evidence. She is surely the form horse in this race, so it makes little sense that there is so much between her and the typically always favoured Godolphin runner, English Rose.

English Rose looked useful 172 days ago when scoring on debut at Newmarket, but she went off an unfancied 9/25.50 chance that day with stablemate Spring Dawn, who had a horrid passage out wide and was heavily backed into odds-on. Interestingly, Spring Dawn (rated 84) has since been sold to Ireland for 80,000gns, having faced defeat in an average handicap at Ascot off of a rating of 82.

The third, Achillea, is rated 74 and was work marking up that day, while the fourth, Ludmilla, has proven disappointing in multiple handicaps off of ratings in the mid to high 70s.

The form of the favourite has been overplayed in this market, and Twirling could prove well above average when granted a solid pace.

Back at 11/43.75 or bigger.

14:00 Kempton - Back Twirling @ 7/24.50

Bet now

16:00 Kempton - Back Max Mayhem @ 5/16.00 1pt

This has surely been the target for Max Mayhem - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who qualified for this event in April on his seasonal return and looked to have been intentionally given a break since running at Ascot in August.

This race is for qualified horses only, and Kevin Philippart De Foy is a master at planning a route. He made it clear that he gave his five-year-old a break before targetting the handicap at Epsom on Derby day before he failed to give his running on the unique undulating track, and it looks to be the same ploy here.

He ran a screamer from off the pace in the Duke Of Edinborough off of a rating of 97 at Royal Ascot. Still, he was continuously denied a clear run to finish a three-length sixth before a narrow defeat to the useful City Streak at the same venue before he likely found the run coming too quickly on his final start when beaten out of sight in August.

However, the switch back to the AW surface looks like a positive move, considering he was a very cosy winner over a couple of these in his qualifying heat, and his only other start on an AW surface was a fast-finishing third.

He looks handicapped to have a say on the best of his form. Graignes is feared, ahead of Savvy Knight, but conditions are ripe for a big run for the selection.

16:00 Kempton - Back Max Mayhem @ 5/16.00

Bet now

Read week 1 of Cheltenham Festival Focus here.

Recommended bets

Back Twirling to win the 14:00 at Kempton @ 7/24.50 1pt win

Back Max Mayhem to win the 16:00 at Kempton @ 5/16.00 1pt win

DARYL'S P/L

Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update December 1st

Advised Stakes = +123.42pts ROI 11.1%

BSP = +114.7pts ROI +10.34%

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