Daryl Carter's Tips: 5/1 Southwell specialist is a sprinter firmly on the up

• Stoute Filly can make a successful handicap debut

• Chance Crypto to be a force in France

• Appleby sprinter is firmly on the upgrade

It's been a couple of frustrating days for the column. I am okay with being wrong if the horse has run its race and was not good enough. The frustration comes when you're on the right horse but fail to get the luck, as I am sure many of you will agree.

Our selection, Shagraan 11/26.50, on Friday at Sandown, was a prime example. He was the horse to take from the five-furlong sprint, having been stuck against the rail and found the line coming too quickly once in the clear. Another was Terrisita 9/110.00 falling two out at Sandown on Saturday when cruising into the race and trading at 1.4640/85. That's racing, though, and it happens - I get that.

The biggest annoyance is that both horses will be well-found in the market next time, which feels like losing twice.

Getting ahead of the curve is the only way to profit in racing, and once the cat is out of the bag with a selection like Shagraan or Terrista, your edge has gone. So what's the play next time? Will you back them when priced at 13/82.63 and 1/12.00? That depends on the circumstances of the race, but it's unlikely the bookmakers will offer any wriggle room in the prices armed with the new info.

Many horses get priced around their most recent run, and when you don't get the result the first time through bad luck, you will be taxed next time.

With that in mind, the game turns to finding reasons why the horse you fancied last time may not run as well as the bookmakers think next. There lies the over-thinking that can sometimes plague punters, and it will pain you occasionally, but not blindly following those horses is the correct way to go.

With recent lousy luck riding firmly on our back, we plough on.

14:40 Southwell - Back Giudecca @ 13/27.50 1pt

Sir Michael Stoute's Giudecca - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is bred to be far better than this opening mark of 85, and having signed off last term with a dominant victory in a Newcastle Maiden, she is taken to make a winning return.

The three-year-old holds plenty of promise, and the move up to 1m for the first time will undoubtedly benefit her. She showed signs of temperament at Newcastle, flashing her tail under pressure, but she won readily and had three subsequent winners behind her that day.

She was a steady race-by-race improver last term, always finishing her races with running left, and her trainer doesn't often send runners to this venue. Stoute has had four seconds and a winner from nine runners at Southwell in the last five years. Today's race looks like a winnable opportunity from a good draw in stall two, so in the hope that she has too much pace - as she did at Newcastle when clocking the fastest seven-furlong race of three on the card - she can get the better of some one-paced rivals.

Unexposed and on the upgrade, she has the potential to be far better than this grade in due course.

A market drift regarding this yard's runners would be a little concerning, so keep a watch and take no shorter than 4/15.00.

14:50 Longchamp - Back Crypto Force @ 20/121.00 0.5pt

This is a tricky race to call, but it might pay to take a slight chance on Crypto Force - 20/121.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who shaped with promise on his return from an absence at the Curragh in the Alleged Stakes and is entitled to strip fitter for that outing.

The four-year-old must handle a quick turnaround of eight days, but he went well for a long way on Saturday, setting substantial fractions and being hard on the bridle two out before tiring in the closing stages. He was in desperate need of the outing and was perhaps on the unfavoured side of the track, with the first, second and third all coming outside on the fresh turf to collar him late in the day.

That was his yard debut and first outing for 574 days, and interestingly, they decided to come over to France for this Group 1 contest just a week later. On the bare form, he holds every chance with a line through Adelaide River when landing the Beresford Stakes in 2022, and the French style of racing should suit his brilliant turn of foot. He looks overpriced in an open race, and I am hoping that his recent outing brings him on a good bit.

Al Riffa is the one to beat but has been fragile, and he lacked the pace for a tactical race here last August, and the selection's fitness edge just might prove the difference. Horizon Dore has been out of sorts since his brilliant Ascot Champion Stakes third to King Of Steel, but a handful failed to give their running that day, and he needs to bounce back, having looked laboured last time.

Zarakem took full advantage of the lack of fitness of his rivals when landing the Group 2 Prix d'Harcourt, and his prior form would give him little chance in this race, so he looks short enough in the betting.

Fantastic Moon and Feed The Flame both have forms that tie in tightly together, are useful and are expected to improve on their seasonal debut. However, I wouldn't say I like the hood on the former, for which he was well below par in Germany last time when wearing it. Feed The Flame's best performance in the Grand Prix de Paris when beating Adelaide River ties in with the selection. Birr Castle shouldn't be entirely dismissed and is entitled to improve while his form is right up there despite suffering defeat to a handful of these.

Back the selection at 20/121.00 or bigger.

16:50 Southwell - Back Billyjoh @ 5/16.00 1pt (NAP)

Billyjoh - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - looked like a horse firmly on the upgrade before his run at Newbury nine days ago when hanging his chance away, but now back on the all-weather surface and returning to Southwell where he boasts a 2-3 record, he is worth keeping the faith.

The four-year-old didn't disgrace himself at Newbury when beaten under two lengths. Still, his record on the AW reads much better than turf, and his only defeat at this venue came when he continuously denied a clear run in September last year in the Racing League.

He has scaled new heights since the turn of the year, winning at Southwell and Chelmsford before an excellent staying on second behind Albasheer at Newcastle over an inadequate five furlongs (first attempt).

He caught the eye at the same venue behind Fivethousandtoone, and both of his latest efforts came in very strong class 2 races. Today's ease in grade back to Class 3 represents an opportunity for the four-year-old to almost certainly have more to offer with today's ideal conditions from a good draw in stall three.

The Michael Appleby-trained improver is one to keep on side. He can return to winning ways with this mark looking well within reach the last twice on this surface.

5/16.00 or bigger looks good value, and any 9/25.50 or bigger is acceptable. Intervention is the biggest danger now at the correct distance.

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