Daryl Carter's Tips: 5/1 Skelton runner to shine down in grade at Doncaster

• A look to Doncaster on Saturday for a 5/16.00 ante-post bet

• Return to good ground a big positive

• Dropped significantly in grade

14:35 Doncaster - Back Nube Negra @ 5/16.00 1pt (Saturday ante-post)

The race looks like it will cut up with The Big Bite, Rouge Vif, Numitor and Sacre Coeur all holding double entries this weekend, and this race has had a small field with five, six and seven runners in the last four years.

Tommy's Oscar holds this as his only entry this weekend, and the drop back to 2m is a welcome sign, having been weak at the finish at Musselburgh over 2m4f last time. Still, he is hardly well handicapped these days, but his record of 2-3 here at Doncaster and never being outside the first two over 2m in chase races means he must be given plenty of respect.

Nube Negra - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - does hold two entries, but connections will surely opt for this race over heavy ground and an extra half a mile at Newbury.

He is not the force he once was, but he has done little wrong when granted a flat track, and with the drying forecast this week, he will return to genuine good ground for the first time since 2022.

His last visit and only visit to Doncaster resulted in an effortless Novice hurdle victory, and with some spark seen the last twice, he could be the answer dropped significantly in grade.

Today is the first time Nube Negra has dropped below a Grade 1 or 2 contest since 2019, and the calmer waters and less demanding assignment than the Grade 1 Clarence House last time will be a welcome rest bite for him.

This smaller field scenario should suit, and he can outclass these on a going day. I would expect him to go off close to 5/23.50, so 5/16.00 looks like a good value bet at this stage.

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