Daryl Carter's Tips: 40/1 Chance Moon to shine at Southwell for small stakes

• Quiet day on the betting front

• Overpriced on latest Aintree hurdle run

• A much weaker class of race for Moonshine Man

It is a quiet day with just the two British meetings at Sedgefield and Southwell, with no racing better than Class 4. I've decided to have one tiny bet at a hefty price.

I was more interested in the racing at Southwell than Sedgefield when looking through the cards.

The 13:05 at Southwell is interesting if not for the opening price differences about favourite Jasmin De Grugy as big as 3/14.00 and as short as 5/42.25.

A chase debutant for Anthony Honeyball, last seen 180 days ago, rated 108 with all his best form in the spring.

The market will be the best guide here, but he is surely a 120-horse in the making and must be well treated on the balance of his form. Honeyball has a fair record of 2-5 40% with chasers at this venue in the last five years.

The one that piqued my interest at a bigger price was Goldwyn 20/121.00 for Mark Walford. Walford has a 3-6 50% strike rate here with chasers in the last five years, but it's the booking of Charlie Deutsch, who comes to Southwell for this, his only ride of the day.

This trainer and jockey partnership has not combined before, and the seven-year-old looked like a chaser last season. He beat Breizh River in March, who is now rated 133 over fences. On the flip side, Deutsch is 0-30 for trainers outside of Venetia Williams and Mel Rowley this term, finishing second just twice but food for thought.

I expect Jasmin De Grugy to get the job done and prove a progressive handicapper, but 5/42.25 is too short for me at this level.

At 14:40 at Southwell, I suspect a rejuvenated Elle Est Beau will take a world of beating at this Class 5 level. However, the cheekpieces for the first time are not the positive you want to see, and she is 0-8, so I can't advise followers to take 5/42.25. Let her win at that price.

14:10 Southwell - Back Moonshine Man @ 40/141.00 0.5pt

7

Moonshine Man (Ire)

• J: Brendan Powell
• T: Henrietta C Knight
• F:

The 14:10 is wide open, and I will have a small swing with Moonshine Man - 40/141.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who shaped better than the bare result at Aintree behind Mister Meggit, falling foul only in the closing stages.

However, that race recorded the fastest circuit time on the card, and Moonshine Man raced wide and up with the pace and contributed to the strong gallop. He travelled well down to three out and had previous Chepstow winner Ben Solo off the bridle and many others but found little when asked under minimal pressure (one tap with the stick).

That race was full of promising types. The winner and second are handy and have shown strong previous form, while the third was a 12-length winner of a point-to-point, the fifth ran well when eighth in the Aintree bumper, and the sixth was a previous winner at Stratford.

It wasn't as bad a race by any means, and he was undoubtedly better than the bare result. He isn't faced with the same calibre of horses today, so he might be worth taking a slight chance with, given he made a promising bumper debut at Warwick, is related to plenty of winners and is entitled to come on for his first outing over obstacles.

However, I suspect the market will tell if he is looking for a handicap rating or not, so without the benefit of further market information, take no less than 40/141.00 and play win-only.

Henrietta Knight is 0-63 and still looking for her first winner since rejoining the training ranks, but this is such a wide-open race with a low bar, and she previously had a 21% strike rate at this track.

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