Cheltenham Festival Focus: 11/2 Super sub the right Champion Hurdle bet, plus 33/1 Arkle bet to bolster the hand

• John Durkan winner and third, were outstanding

• Ballyburn is no two-miler

• Sir Gino can prove the best Champion Hurdle bet before Saturday's Fighting Fifth

• 33/134.00 could look huge for Arkle player by the end of the week

In week five, Daryl Carter looks back at the week that was, rounds up the notable action relevant to the Cheltenham Festival, including the brilliant action at Punchestown, dives into a very informative John Durkan and dissects Ballyburn's performance.

He also adds a 11/26.50 chance to his ante-post list for the Champion Hurdle and a second crack at the Arkle at 33/134.00. He looks at the market movers and highlights this week's notable action.

We start the "week that was" at Thurles on Thursday, where Minella Sixo gave recent conqueror Potters Charm a form boost, winning a three-mile Novice Hurdle. Still, Minella Sixo only had to run into the low 120s to win this, keeping in line with the original assessment of Potters Charm's Cheltenham race in week three.

At Ascot on Friday, Joe Tizzard's First Confession also gave Potters Charm a form boost by winning his Maiden Hurdle by 12 lengths. He had little to beat here, with Milan Tino continuously overbet with little evidence, and he was not put in the Cheltenham race given an "educational ride", so a "form boost" may not be the correct term here.

On Saturday, the Ascot Hurdle may have thrown up a Stayers Hurdle contender with Nicky Henderson's Lucky Place 20/121.00. The five-year-old was strong at the finish over 2m3f here, fending off Blueking d'Oroux, who attempted to give him six pounds. However, according to Henderson, it's only through a lack of opportunity over fences that he runs over the smaller obstacles. The Reelkeel Hurdle on New Year's Day will offer more insight here but expect him to head down the Stayers route.

Speaking of the Stayers Hurdle, would it be wild to suggest that Haydock Betfair Stayers' Handicap winner Shoot First 50/151.00 could play a hand in the Grade 1 contest?

There was a lot to like about this performance. He has had little racing; this was his first on soft ground. He defied a huge market drift of 22/123.00 to land the spoils in a gruelling test. A handful of these failed to give their running, but he could do no more than finish his race powerfully. Keep an eye on what the handicapper does and his next engagement.

Also at Haydock, the Betfair Chase saw Royale Pagaille land the race for the second year running and perhaps take advantage of the lack of a recent run in Grey Dawning, who came there to win his race. However, Grey Dawning came out with plenty of props, jumping the final fence in front mud-splattered, but he waivered under pressure, finished very tired and came to a walk crossing the line.

The rain turned this into an attritional test at the final hour, but Dan Skelton's horse emerged with plenty of credit on his first start outside of Novice company and will surely improve from this outing as he did last year.

As for his Cheltenham target, I expect Skelton to do the same as he did with Protektorat - head to the Gold Cup and then Ryanair the following year. He is 16/117.00 for the main event in March, but he must improve a lot to be a 175+ chaser over three miles. Still, he isn't one to give up on.

Ballyburn is no two-miler

Ballyburn returned to the track with a smooth 2m3f Beginners Chase win at Punchestown on Saturday, unchallenged to win eased down by 13 lengths over stablemate Ocastle Des Mottes. This was a good performance, albeit a straightforward task, as he was unhurried for the lead and not challenged.

The time was only okay, and his jumping was big, clean, and careful at one or two. His sectionals showed he tired towards the end of the race, likely lacking race fitness, and he is expected to come on leaps and bounds for the outing.

A solid chasing debut from BALLYBURN
Jumping well and coming away very easily!

He's got some engine!! pic.twitter.com/VyhVIR13Ck

-- Rein It In! Horse Racing (@ReinItInHR) November 23, 2024

How do we think JONBON will fare this season?

Is he a potential @Betfair Tingle Creek winner?... pic.twitter.com/ddI7gMoblq

-- Sandown Park (@Sandownpark) October 31, 2023

However, right now, his jumping speed is not that of a two-mile chaser. A typically speedy two-mile chaser will glide over the obstacle, while Ballyburn is up and down, taking longer than expected for a natural two-miler. Ballyburn lost 5.39mph at his obstacles. It's worth taking a closer look at Jonbon and Ballyburn's closing stages (I wish I had the means to make one video to compare the two, but maybe that's in the future) to see the difference in the type of jumpers they are.

While there's no doubt Ballyburn may have the class to come through an Arkle, the best of him is to come over longer distances. He has a high cruising speed, but the real acid test over two miles will come if he makes a mistake at a fence and is asked to pick up and catch some naturally faster jumping horses, and his ground may be lost at the obstacles.

I do not doubt his class and ability for one moment. I am simply trying to pinpoint his optimum distance, and as a punter, I want to back him over three miles on this evidence. He is now 2/13.00 for the Arkle and 4/15.00 for the Brown Advisory.

Outstanding John Durkan sees new Gold Cup favourite

The John Durkan at Punchestown on Sunday was the best race on either side of the Irish Sea for a decade on paper, and it lived up to the billing with a thrilling finish.

A bit of housekeeping first: our Gold Cup selection, Iknowtheywayurthinkin, was a big market drifter, and he put in a poor performance. He is now out to 20/121.00. Unfortunately, likely, they will now head down the Irish National route, so we will have to look elsewhere.

Fact To File ended with the spoils despite a market drift to 7/24.50, beating last year's useful novice Spillane's Tower with reigning two-time Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs a two-length third and the well-backed Fastorslow in fourth.

This was run at one hell of a gallop, around 11 seconds quicker than last year's result when Fastorslow won the race. From start to finish, there was no let-up in the pace, clocking a circuit time more than seven seconds quicker than Ballyburn on the previous day and only around two seconds slower than the Grade 2 two-mile Novice Chase winner Touch Me Not.

The relentless gallop saw Fact To File outpaced on occasions between his flights but still put in strong individual sectionals. He made a severe ground-losing error at the eighth, which at this pace would have seen a lesser horse drop away, but how he got back into a rhythm, despite being short of room on occasions, marked him down as a very worthy new Gold Cup favourite (11/4].

He saw this out strongly. Only Stella Story and Search For Glory were quicker than Fact To File from the back of the last to the line across the two days, and they went at a sedate pace throughout their three-runner race. This was Fact To File's eighth career start and only fifth chasing start.

The show

𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐓𝐨 𝐅𝐢𝐥𝐞 holds off Spillane's Tower to lead home a JP McManus one-two in a brilliant edition of the Grade 1 John Durkan Chase.

The new kids on the block in the staying chase division!@punchestownrace | @WillieMullinsNH pic.twitter.com/pFqV5lTQyv

-- Racing TV (@RacingTV) November 24, 2024

He was beaten on last year's seasonal return; the limit to his potential, particularly with the view to going back up to 3m, is entirely unknown. He rates an outstanding prospect for the year ahead, and while many will have the view that others will be fitter next time and get the better of him, you could easily counter-argue that with the improvement angle.

Runner-up Spilane's Tower was flattered by his second-placed effort, having played no part in the robust pace at the rear of the field and instead would look to upgrade the third, Galopin Des Champs.

Galopin Des Champs, rated 17lb higher than winner Fact To File, emerges from this race with plenty of credit, having done most of the hard yards on the front end, and that suggests his Gold Cup claims are very live for a third-year. The market has pushed him out to 9/25.50, which seems overreactive to the defeat rather than the bare facts of the performance. Galopin Des Champs shaped like the drop in distance to 2m3f was against him, and another year older, he lacked a change in gear as he tired.

Still, this was a better seasonal return from the 2023/24 Gold Cup winner than his defeat in the same race last year, and a return to Leopardstown on his next start, where he has been dominant, could see him return to the top of the Gold Cup market - if you like him, take the price now.

The big positive for Fact To File fans is the form makes absolute sense, and the clock backs up this performance. Even considering that Galopin Des Champs was below his best, the progression from Fact To File makes him a massive player in March.

Market Movers

Super-sub Sir Gino, the right Champion Hurdle bet @ 11/26.50

There was a turn-up in the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle as State Man - unbeaten since the 2023 Champion Hurdle, finding only Constitution Hill too good since his Irish debut - went down to Gordon Elliott's mare Brighterdaysahead.

A soft early lead for Brighterdaysahead saw her take a look at one or two hurdles early on as Stateman allowed her three lengths. This was a two-horse race from the get-go, but the mare made all the running until headed at the last but rallied on the run to deny Willie Mullins' runner. Brighterdaysahead's jumping again was scrappy throughout, including a mistake at the second last. Still, she outstayed Stateman at the finish with her seasonal return under her belt, likely a big factor.

She does not jump well enough for a Champion Hurdle, and this is the second week running I am convinced the Mares Hurdle is the correct aim for her.

State Man lacked race fitness and should improve from this. However, he has beaten stayers in his last four starts. Irish Point, Bob Olinger, Impaire Et Passe are all horses better over further than two miles. I do have reservations about both of these runners who now dominate the Champion Hurdle market 6/17.00 and 4/15.00 with the unseen Lossiemouth 9/43.25.

The Champion Hurdle division is not deep, particularly with the ongoing saga around the well-being of Constitution Hill.

That leads me nicely to this week's ante-post selection. Sir Gino - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is the horse I like for this. Now that he has been confirmed to be staying over hurdles and heading to the Fighting Fifth on Saturday, I expect him to end up a force in this division, providing all goes to plan.

He was the apple of my eye last season, and I don't think for one moment he was anywhere near his best at Aintree, but he still got the job done and in a quicker circuit time than Langer Dan, Bob Olinger and Impaire Et Passe.

Granted, his form is unknown, but he blew me away last term, and unlike Brighterdaysahead, his best performance has come at Cheltenham.

After just a handful of starts, he could be the next star this division needs, and he is the perfect super sub for Constitution Hill. He is 6/17.00 best price but 11/26.50 with the Sportsbook and is another, like Ballyburn, who has the quality to warrant being just the second-priced horse shorter than 10/111.00 in this column in the last three years.

He is for me at 33/134.00

I am happy with our current Arkle selection, Inthepocket, who is undoubtedly a proper Grade 1 horse. However, another in this market that has an entry this week at Thurles and looks well overpriced is It's For Me 33/134.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Willie Mullins' brilliant point-to-point winner has not been seen since he slammed Caldwell Potter at Punchestown in November last year, but he took the breath away with that effortless performance when he was strong at the finish. Caldwell Potter ended his season with a Grade 1 win by six lengths and, rated 151, It's For Me, was quoted by Willie Mullins as one of his leading Novice Hurdlers.

The key to seeing the best of It's For Me is him learning to settle, and I suspect with the Turners scratched from the programme, there's only one race he will be targeted at, and that's the Arkle.

The promising point winner was fifth in Fact To File's Champion Bumper, where he caught the eye, staying on strongly at the death, having been held up at the rear of the field. He was only a 6/17.00 chance for that and the pick of Paul Townend.

The sky is the limit with It's For Me on the balance of the evidence, and his entry this week means the 50/151.00 must be taken to bolster our hand in the Arkle.

What's On this week

Another big weekend ahead. On Thursday at Thurles, Tullyhill and It's For Me are entered in a Beginners Chase over 2m3f.

The New Lion enters Lingfield to put his Challow Hurdle credentials on the line.

Friday sees an excellent Newbury meeting kick off with the potential of seeing Caldwell Potter in action. The Long Distance Hurdle takes centre stage with Strong Leader making his return.

Saturday, Sir Gino attempts to land the Fighting Fifth and the Coral Gold Cup features at Newbury.

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