Daryl Carter's Tips: 4/1 William can make it a sweet Saturday

Daryl heads into Saturday's action with bets from Newbury, Market Rasen, Newmarket and the Curragh.

Daryl Carter heads into Saturday in fine form, has a strong NAP from Newbury, and takes a two-pronged attack on the Group 3 Hackwood...

  • Ehraz and Rohaan expected to feature heavily in Hackwood

  • He says his NAP at Newbury is a well-handicapped runner

  • Francky primed for a third straight win at Market Rasen


14.25 Newbury - Back Sweet William @ 4/15.00 2pt NAP

Sweet William - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - won for us 15 days ago at Doncaster and is a horse firmly on the upgrade and one to keep on the right side of. His rating of 88 looks well within his grasp on the balance of his four runs to date, and stepping up in distance today will surely be the making of him.

The unexposed four-year-old has strong claims now moving into handicap company, having given Saint George - a subsequent Queens Vase runner-up and Bahrain Trophy third now rated 109 - a good fright at Southwell on seasonal return when conceding race fitness. The selection has improved with each outing, and despite the lack of depth at Doncaster last time, it read very well on the clock.

His final start as a three-year-old saw him chase home Cadmus (84), a lightly raced sort that the useful El Habeeb touched off in his previous start, who was subsequently beaten four lengths in the St Leger and is rated 110.

His immediate and collateral form stand up and the fact that connections had given this horse an Ebor entry suggests, like me, they think he is well ahead of his handicap rating in the 80s, considering you couldn't get into the last two runnings of that race without a mark of 100.

Today's rivals are talented on their day, and he faces a tough task on handicap debut, but there's surely more to come, and he makes plenty of appeal at anything 7/24.50 or bigger.

Back Sweet William @ 4/15.00

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14:35 Curragh - Back Albasheer @ 7/18.00 1pt

A chance is given to Albasheer - 7/18.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who was a huge eye-catcher when steaming home from off the pace in the Wokingham on his belated handicap debut and was only beaten three lengths.

That was a real step back in the right direction and a hint that he figures on a handy mark, and the hope is that he can build on that run to land this valuable prize. If you tailor-make a trip for him, it would be today's first attempt at 6 1/2 furlongs, so he is very hard to ignore with such a lightly raced profile.

He offered plenty of promise in 2020 when he was an impressive debut winner before being touched off in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster by Chindit (ironically, recent Wokingham winner Saint Laurence in behind) before an excellent sixth in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket.

He must have had his issues because it wasn't until the following August we saw him when touched off a head by Jumby in a conditions event at Salisbury. Since then, he has put in a couple of below-par runs, been off the track for 582 days and switched yards and ownership.

Still, he has had just eight runs in his life, and his two runs this season in Listed company and in the big-field Wokingham event are enough to suggest he is on his way back, and today could be the time to catch him.

The fitting of the blinkers last time helped, having shown a tendency to hang right, but he finished like a train, and that performance is too hard to ignore.

Archie Watson has made an effort to book Colin Keane, and British hopes have a good strike rate in this contest (won last year by Mr Wagyu).
Back him no shorter than 6/17.00.

Back Albasheer @ 7/18.00

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15:00 Newbury - Back Ehraz @ 10/111.00 1pt and Rohaan @ 8/19.00 1pt

The market surely has made a mess of this one. The Frankie factor must see Lezoo 4/15.00 as short as she is at the top of the market because it's certainly not what she has achieved on her latest outing. I don't get this fascination I've seen over the past week about Commanche Falls 4/15.00, either. I think he is a woeful price.

Still, I am not moaning, given the value that offers down the field, and I want to back two.

The horse to take a bit of a swing at is Ehraz 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - for Richard Hannon. He made an auspicious return to action in April at Doncaster on heavy ground, and considering he had never encountered a surface like that, he ran remarkably well when attempting to chase home soft ground specialist Vadream.

He did the best of those held up off a slow pace and showed a bright turn of foot to get in contention before shaping like he needed the run. The concern is that he has been off for 112 days but may have needed time to get over those excursions.

Still, he holds significant potential after just nine starts, one of which includes an excellent fast-finishing short-head second to Tiber Flow in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes here at Newbury last May, which recorded a blistering time (three seconds faster than Persian Force), in which he clocked three consecutive sub-11-second furlong sectionals and the fastest final furlong. It was a tremendous effort, and a repeat of that must see him in the mixer.

The return to Newbury and a sounder surface are both in his favour, and his defeat to Rohaan last year at Ascot in the Group 3 Bengough Stakes (Commanche Falls in third) saw him get no clear run at things.

He is a horse to keep on the right side of, and the fitting of the blinkers could bring about further improvement, and given he is not far off the level required, it could be the difference. Back him no shorter than 7/18.00.

Back Ehraz @ 10/111.00

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Rohaan - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is undoubtedly the horse that sets the standard on the clock and in the form book. The drop to five furlongs last time at Ascot in a handicap looks to have ignited that spark in him, having finished with his trademark rattle for the first time this season.

It was a case of job done, and now moving back up to his optimal distance of six furlongs, he should be of significant interest in this Group 3 contest.

He has failed to win at Group 1 level on three occasions, and he is not the most straightforward but below Group 2 level at six furlongs outside of a seasonal return such as today; see's his record read 1417115.

The fourth came in this race last year when he was no match for the winner, who was a top-class Group 1 performer in Minzaal, but the second and third caught him late on when on the favoured side of the track and perhaps he hit the front too early under Hollie Doyle.

He is the form horse in this race. He has held Commanche Falls, Garrus, and Anaf (collateral form), which suggests this is a good opportunity for him.

This may not be his ideal track, but he handled it just fine last year. The quick turnaround is of little concern, and if on a going day - which his latest performance suggests is approaching - then he will surely be going close in this.

Look to take no shorter than 5/16.00.

Back Rohaan @ 8/19.00

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15:05 Newmarket - Back Equiano Springs @ BSP 1pt

It takes a leap of faith to back Equiano Springs but there's good reason to back him here at Newmarket, returning to Class 4 level for the first time this season.

Five of Equiano Springs' victories have come at Newmarket, including 1-2 (50%) here on the July course as recent as last August when a dominant winner. He is 5-8 at HQ, and this venue brings him to life. Furthermore, ten of his victories have come at the Class 4 level or lower; when tackling that grade at Newmarket, he is 4-4.

He has now dropped in the ratings down to 79, allowing him to sneak into this 0-80 contest and is back down in this grade for the first time since scoring on the Rowley Mile off three pounds higher. This season he has contested two races over seven furlongs and two over six, but those two over today's distance of six furlongs came in highly competitive Class 2 contests.

He could prove vulnerable to an improver, but Tom Queally, back in the saddle and a return to hold up tactics for the first time since scoring on the Rowley Mile last September, will be a positive, and all the three-year-olds bar Roger Varian's Almaty Star look limited (they only get five pounds also).

Still, the Varian runner is having his first start after a gelding operation and wears a hood for the first time, so he is not straightforward and might need this.

I am happy to back Equiano Springs at BSP as he rarely gets support in the market - his last four wins have seen him go off within half a point of his opening odds. I am expecting around 4/15.00.

Back Equiano Springs @ BSP

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15:15 Market Rasen - Back Francky Du Berlais @ 9/25.50 1pt

Francky Du Berlais - 9/25.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is bidding for a third straight win in this race, and trainer Peter Bowen looks to have had one target in mind for the ten-year-old.

He has surely been laid out for this, having caught the eye over course and distance in the Summer Plate Trial 29 days ago when Sean Bowen tenderly handled his mount behind the winner and reposing rival And The New.

He travelled with plenty of zest, and the defeat of nine lengths should not be taken literally. He looks high enough in the weights for his age, but he is now 11 pounds better off with last year's runner-up La Domaniale who brings up the betting in behind him, and he won this race last year with a bit to spare off just one pound lower and three pounds lower in 2021.

It's tough to find horses laid out for a race at the best of times, but there's little doubt this has been the target, and he must surely go close. With the Grand National fences aside, he has an excellent record second time up off a break with form figures of 112222. He makes plenty of appeal at 10/34.33 or bigger.

Back Francky Du Berlais @ 9/25.50

Bet now

Recommended bets

Back Sweet William to win the 14:25 at Newbury @ 4/15.00 2pt win

Back Albasheer to win the 14:35 at Curragh @ 7/18.00 1pt win

Back Ehraz to win the 15:00 at Newbury @ 10/111.00 1pt win

Back Rohaan to win the 15:00 at Newbury @ 8/19.00 1pt win

Back Equiano Springs to win the 15:05 at Newmarket @ BSP 1pt win

Back Francky Du Berlais to win the 15:15 at Market Rasen @ 9/25.50 1pt win

DARYL CARTER'S P/L

Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly

Advised Stakes = +74pts ROI 10%

SP = -14.1pts ROI -2%

BSP = +119.7Ppts ROI +17.06%

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