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Go back in with both Arc tips at 9/110.00 and 33/134.00
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Kinross can do it again in the Foret
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NAP can sparkle in France
You can read my Arc runner-by-runner guide here, where I advised backing Al Riffa and Continuous ante-post, and I want to go in on both horses again.
I am re-entering the market because confidence remains high for both selections. I can't believe Continuous is a 33/134.00 chance in this field when last year's Arc was a much deeper race. That's bonkers to me, so I will play again.
Al Riffa also holds an outstanding chance, so I am backing both horses again.
How on earth is Los Angeles a favourite for this? It must be the O'Brien factor. It baffles me.
The market vibes said that Fallen Angel would come on for the run at Leopardstown when second to Porta Fortuna in the Group 1 Matron Stakes, but the step up in trip is a question for her, and she tackles a much deeper field today.
It must be significant that Betfair Ambassador Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Matron Stakes fast-finishing fourth Ylang Ylang, and having won Fillies Mile Group 1 at Newmarket this time last year, she could be a filly that comes good in the Autumn and the step-up in trip is long overdue, so she has plenty going for her.
Still, it's worth giving another chance to Sparkling Plenty - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who is a quicker horse than Ylang Ylang and is well suited by the French racing style. She was given no chance in the Prix Vermeille here last month from a wide draw in 12 by her rider, who dropped her out a mile off the pace. It's to her credit she managed to get within six lengths of the winner, Bluestocking, that day, given her racing position at the halfway stage.
That 1m4f trip was questionable then, and moving back to ten furlongs today is a positive move. Her rider that day, Tony Piccone, is immediately replaced by Cristian Demuro, who gets on well with this filly, and her fast-finishing third when unfavourably placed in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood is strong form. She came away the moral winner in my book.
She has done nothing but improve this season, and she looks overpriced on all known form. Today, she has a much better draw in stall seven and faces mainly middle-distance pedigree horses outside of Fallen Angel, so she should have a speed edge if this turns tactical.
Fallen Angel is respected, but the selection should be a clear second favourite, and any 11/43.75 or bigger is acceptable.
16:05 Longchamp - Back Sparkling Plenty
Kinross should have won this race last year, but for a denied passage. With another favourable draw, he can make amends and score in this race.
The seven-year-old likely has his final season, and all roads have led to this race as his ultimate target. Having proven to come good at the back end of the season, he makes plenty of appeal under optimal conditions.
It's wise to make only a little of his defeats in the early part of the year over six furlongs, as that has never been his trip. He proved at Doncaster last time that he still has the turn of foot and the quality to land a Group 1.
This race is not as deep as the numbers suggest, and there will be a strong gallop here courtesy of Big Rock - who wasn't favoured by a change in tactics in Canada last time - and Tribalist, who should set this up for the selections' typical strong-finishing effort.
Ramatuelle is very interesting. I have long thought the move back to seven furlongs could be the answer to her scoring at this level, but she is in against the boys and hasn't been seen for 107 days, which leaves a couple of questions.
The selection has optimal conditions today and, if good enough, should have an excellent chance of scoring. Back no shorter than 9/43.25.
16:40 Longchamp - Back Kinross