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Pinafore is of strong interest on soft ground
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Rosa Applause will relish the move to seven furlongs
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Native King rates a great bet at a big price
Plenty hold chances in this valuable Listed Dick Poole Fillies Stakes so it's worth giving a mention in today's column. The one with arguably the most promise is Ralph Beckett's Tabiti. However, her 7f debut victory at Newmarket didn't point to this move down in trip being an obvious next step when analysing the sectionals (she clocked the fastest first and last furlong). Still, she left the impression that she could rate highly.
She is a well-built filly and moved through her race effortlessly at Newmarket when setting the fractions. However, having missed her intended engagement in the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood due to soft ground, one suspects this is a means to an end with the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket in two weeks. Still, she is the most promising Filly in this field, and Ryan Moore in the saddle is a big draw.
Magic Mild might prove vulnerable to something with a stronger finishing effort, but she has clocked good times when scoring at Newmarket and shouldn't be underestimated.
Jewelry looked very good at Newbury, holds a speed edge on Troia, and is respected, but she might be better for this experience.
Greydreambeliever won despite looking green at York on her debut, but I'm not convinced the daughter of an Authorized dam is going to be seen to best effect at this distance now up in grade.
Is the drop in trip for Tabiti just a minor inconvenience? Probably, but I don't want to pay 15/82.88 or so to find out.
There are a few to consider here, and top of the list was Under The Twilight, who holds an excellent record of 3-3 at Salisbury and has been better than the bare result the last twice at Windsor in solid races. She is sure to be popular, but the angle into her is exposed. It's much of the same form, and the impending rain at Salisbury just swings things in favour of William Haggas' Pinafore - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook.
The filly travelled much better at York when fitted with the first-time blinkers over a trip too far. The move back to six furlongs and returning to a softer surface are both reasons to expect a bigger performance under Tom Marquand.
Pinafore scored last term off three pounds lower at Nottingham on soft ground and went close in a Listed event at the Curragh. Those are her only two efforts on a slower surface in Britain, with the other being an excusable one at Chantilly.
She has threatened to be a good horse on occasions, and with an eye-catching run last time now could be the chance to get on her at a good price. She certainly doesn't stay seven furlongs, so three runs this term are easily forgiven, and her latest effort was just her second in a handicap since scoring at Nottingham. Everything looks in place to give her another chance, and her price is too high to turn down.
16:25 Salisbury - Back Pinafore
Rosa Applause - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has hinted that a stiffer test of stamina would suit her on a couple of occasions now, and with an excellent staying on third to the smart Vicario at Haydock under her belt, now looks like the time to catch her.
She has lacked the pace in handicaps to get the job done over six furlongs, but she has been consistent, and her form in defeat would give her every chance from this rating of 85. She has excelled in Fillies only company with form figures of 3113; this is just her second handicap against her own sex.
Her dam was a 7f winner as a two-year-old, and there is plenty of stamina in the pedigree, so this move up in distance looks long overdue. Circe likes it at Newbury, but she is becoming exposed, so it's Queen's Reign down in the distance that is feared the most.
Any 4/15.00 or bigger is acceptable, and she has a great chance.
16:40 Newbury - Back Rosa Applause
A few of these can be made cases for, but the firm preference is for Native King - 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who rates one of the day's best bets at a price now on a more conventional track. He was impressive on his handicap debut at Chester when negotiating a wide draw in stall 10, coming from last to first and scoring with any amount in hand. That effort saw the smart Treasure Time well held in fifth, and he is now 17 lb higher in the handicap.
He suffered a slow pace at the rear of the field when a beaten favourite next time at the same venue but was tenderly handled for another day.
His effort at Goodwood on his latest outing was very eye-catching from an impossible draw following a slow start, and he stayed on under minimal pressure but pulled the arms off his jockey in doing so.
He holds an excellent pedigree and is undoubtedly ahead of the handicapper on all known evidence, just eight pounds higher than his handicap debut victory. At the same time, he is unexposed on the turf following three starts and has a good piece of Novice form when narrowly behind the 92-rated Sisyphean in February.
The move to a stiffer mile today will certainly favour him, and we have yet to see his best. Gloucestershire is interesting and handicapped to go well, but his absence since his debut in May must be a concern. Aafoor has been in the tracker since catching the eye at Goodwood and enhanced his form next time at Newmarket in a smaller field. He rates the biggest threat, but the selection will surely end the season higher than 83.
Any 6/17.00 or bigger is acceptable.
17:00 Salisbury - Back Native King