Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: 4/1 Blewburton is set to improve at Salisbury

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has one Salisbury selection.

Daryl Carter looks to Salisbury on Tuesday, highlights a two-year-old he wants to keep on his side at 4/15.00 for his sole bet of the day, and discusses his points strategy...

  • One Tuesday selection

  • Blewburton has plenty more to offer at Salisbury

  • Ground and trip can see further progress


Predicting the markets is usually a significant strength of mine. It has to be with the timing of the column, which doesn't benefit from seeing any market moves.

I am comfortable admitting I have gotten a few things wrong recently. I couldn't believe Monday's NAP went off at 15.6 at Lingfield, having advised him at 7/18.00 with a basement price of 4/15.00. I was so stunned that I weighed in again with him at BSP because he could have gone off any price--there was zero money for him. But as one follower tweeted, it didn't look like they were ever really putting the pedal to the metal on him.

You'll always have losing periods, but you can do your best to cap them, predict when they are coming, learn from them, and adapt. Detecting things like the market moving in the opposite direction, particularly when as confident as I was with Monday's NAP, will be a tell-tale sign--coupled with previous betting data--that could mean a tricky patch is possibly approaching.

Thankfully, I made a successful LAY in the opening race of the day at Lingfield on Monday--after time, Annie, I know.

I back everything I tip, but I don't tip everything I back. Still, the core of my betting is the column selections.

Which brings me to the point-staking strategy in this column.

This column works on a staking strategy that is carefully planned out. It's not or never has been just throwing two points here or three points there. The same is true of my betting strategy: for one winner to provide profit on the day regardless of the number of selections. Or at least get to breaking even.

For example, I wouldn't recommend five selections at one-point win stakes with the lowest-priced runner at 5/23.50. If the other four lose and the 5/23.50 chance wins, it's a loss on the day. Something would have to give. The number of selections would need to be reduced, or the points stake would increase on that selection depending on the price of the other recommended bets.

However, if the lowest-priced horse of those five were 4/15.00, I would at least break even with one winner at a one-point win stake on all five selections.

The advised points also depend on the value the selection offers, but the core of the strategy (one winner makes a profit) will always remain.

It's the reason I'm not too fond of level-stakes betting. It's a way of never putting your neck on the line. All tipsters should confidently say when they like something enormously, reflect it on a points system, and take the hit when it goes array.

However, each to their own. Thankfully, Royal Ascot is approaching, and I am working to the bone on the meeting. I will have a couple of pieces for the meeting out in the next few days.


14:00 Salisbury - Back Blewburton @ 4/15.00 1pt

Still, on to today, and the horse I want to side with is Blewburton - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who shaped with considerable promise at Leicester on his debut and connections have been patient in picking his next target.

The two-year-old, Blewburton, sees contrasting conditions likely to be touted as damaging to his chances, but they are actually an excellent reason to see him in a better light. He was a runaway winner of a run-of-the-mill Maiden on debut on very testing ground, but his action and pedigree suggest he could be a better horse on a sounder surface. The five-furlong distance on that occasion was the bare minimum for the son of Saxon Warrior, and the combination of today's faster ground and the move up to six furlongs are big positives for him.

Two-year-old form at this time of year is not worth the paper it's written on, but it suggests he is overpriced compared to today's favourite Cayman Tai. The Leicester third was only a short head behind Cayman Tai next time out at Chepstow and ran well enough following that behind a fair sort at Catterick. Still, the time was ok, and his closing splits were solid enough to make him interested in following up under a penalty.

Nothing could lay a glove on the Eve Johnson Houghton runner once the penny had dropped, and he was eased at the line when only just getting the revs up. He left the impression that he could be a potentially smart type, and I am happy at 4/15.00 or bigger, but that is his basement price with the number of potential improvers in the field.


Now Read: Tuesday Horse Racing Tips: Timeform's trio of tips at Salisbury and Wetherby


Recommended bets

DARYL'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) JULY 1st

2024 P/L = +59.85.43 ROI 12.67%

BSP P/L = +64.5 ROI 13.66%

2024 P/L Ante-post = -1

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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