Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: 13/2 Ramses can claim Veteran crown at Warwick

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter heads to Warwick and Kempton for his Saturday bets.

Daryl Carter heads to Warwick and Kempton on Saturday and expects a course winner to claim his Veteran's title...

  • Now is the time to catch Flegmatik

  • Back old boy Ramses to relish the return to Warwick

  • A fresh look and more bets added on Saturday morning

It's been a frustrating day again with price movement. The tips on the Racing...Only Bettor podcast all still stand, but as I was filing this column, the price of Volcano went from 25/126.00 into 18/119.00 into 14/115.00 just before clicking the publish button, so he had to be scrapped.

The case I made on the podcast still rings true, but frustration has set in, and I refuse to be a column that chases a price.

For clarity, I have backed him, and I hope you have, and any 18/119.00 or bigger is acceptable. The same is said for The Changing Man earlier on the Warwick card, having flagged up his 14/115.00 on the Podcast, which is now a general 11/26.50 chance - the correct price.

I was all set to have an almost maximum advised bet on Saturday on Rare Edition at 15:50 at Kempton if the Betfair Sportsbook had opened up around 11/82.38 but our odds compilers are a savvy bunch and have rightly made him a 5/61.84 chance.

I have two for now, but I will take a second look in the morning after the market settles, and there will likely be additional selections.

So be sure to keep an eye on Twitter for updated selections.

13:30 Kempton - Back Flegmatik @ BSP 1.5pt

The Novice Chianti Classico might prove challenging to beat here. Still, these are optimal conditions for Flegmatik - currently 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who has been knocking on the door of late in better company and has now returned to a venue he has run well at on multiple occasions.

The Dan Skelton runner finished third at Ascot last time behind two very well-handicapped horses and left the impression his time is near. Today's race, on balance, is much softer, and his last visit to Kempton resulted in a neck second behind Our Power in a deep race last February on his fourth outing of the season.

Interestingly, he scored on his fourth outing here in 2022 before racking up another victory at this venue, and today is his fourth outing again.

He can now boast figures of 20113 when running at Kempton and having left the impression that his current rating of 137 is not beyond him, the three-pound claim of Tristan Durrell only enhances his chances.

Drying ground conditions are favourable, and there's little reason why he shouldn't be making his presence felt strongly in this weaker contest.

His 5/23.50 looks the basement mark, given this would be the shortest price he has had for an SP since 2019, so back to using BSP. Still, outside of his biggest rival, Chianti Classico, Gustavian is feared most ahead of Latitude. The former is 21 lbs better off with Moroder, but they have been running at a lower level.

13:30 Kempton - Back Flegmatik @ BSP

Bet now

14:15 Wetherby - Back The Last Day @ BSP 1pt

The Last Day - currently 11/112.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - fell at Ascot on seasonal return, but he still went through that very strongly run affair with some zest, and this is a dip into much calmer waters today.

The 12-year-old tends to need his first outing of the year in recent seasons, and he might be worth chancing in this less competitive environment to capitalise on a very handy rating of 133 with that run now under his belt.

Evan Williams' runner has typically been seen the best at Aintree, but he has gone well elsewhere under the right conditions, notably when looking like bolting up at Haydock in 2022 before falling at the final flight. He cruised to the lead there, looking miles ahead of the handicapper off of a rating of 132, and today is a very similar scenario with flat tracks looking his preference.

He is lightly raced for his age, and although usually unfavoured by the market, he has a big chance against this bunch. Gunsight Ridge is an obvious danger and can go well fresh, so it is feared. However, this pair went off joint-favourites at Aintree last year, and today, the selection represents good value.

Back The Last Day at BSP as he has moved from 7/18.00 to 11/112.00 at the time of writing this, and he has previously gone off and won at big prices. Any 11/112.00 or bigger is acceptable.

14:15 Wetherby - Back The Last Day @ BSP

Bet now

14:42 Kempton - Back Hermino AA @ 20/121.00 1pt e/w (6 places)

I landed on the side of Hermino AA - 20/121.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - after much deliberation between Mark Of Gold (price far bigger elsewhere) and Mothill (rise in class a concern) as well as those towards the top of this market.

Still, the selection - who is top-price with Betfair - caught the eye travelling strongly when up to 3m at Cheltenham last time and has a highly progressive profile.

Gary Moore's runner cut no mustard in two starts over fences this season but bounced right back when returned to the more minor obstacles at Cheltenham upped in distance. He could not open his stride for much of the race, having been caught on the heels of runners in a contest that turned into a bit of a dash from two out.

Still, he travelled powerfully through the contest, leaving the impression that he had a big pot in him.

In handicapping terms, he looks fairly treated today, particularly on his efforts last term, including making Howlingmadmurdock - now rated 144 - work hard at Sandown. He also beat a twice subsequent winner, Goodwin Racing, at Plumpton in refined style, and previous to that at Doncaster, he would have gone much closer than his eight-length defeated margin suggests behind Moon Hunter (129) and Theatre man (134) if not for a bad blunder at the last.

There's undoubtedly a bigger pot in this horse at some point, and he is less exposed than most in this race. His ability to travel in a well-run race and staying prowess will see him hold every chance.

He makes an appeal at 12/113.00 or bigger.

14:42 Kempton - Back Hermino AA @ 20/121.00

Bet now

15:35 Warwick - Back Ramses De Teillee @ 13/27.50 1pt e/w

As I mentioned with the previous selection, I like horses on the sharp end of the pace at Warwick and Ramses De Teillee - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - fits that bill and rates a fairly confident bet.

David Pipe has a fair record in this race and saddles the selection to finish a running-on second at Sandown in this contest last year, having gone off a 6/17.00 joint-favourite. He lost nothing in defeat and his finishing effort when well clear of the third suggested he retained plenty of ability.

He now looks like a horse to catch fresh, having never been better than winning here at Warwick on a seasonal return last year over De Rasher Counter by nine lengths off of 137 (Celebre D'Allen 14-length fourth).

Today he has an almost identical scenario off two pounds higher and has optimal conditions. Ramses De Teillee has indeed been targetted at this contest, given his good yards record, and he will give us a good run for our money on the sharp end.

He has won twice immediately on the back of a wind operation, so the recent procedure is another positive, and it might take a fresh horse to land this competitive affair.

Back him at 6/17.00 or bigger.

15:35 Warwick - Back Ramses De Teillee @ 13/27.50

Bet now

Now read Tony Calvin's Saturday racing tips

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Daryl's P/L

2024 P/L = Updated monthly Feb 1st

Daryl's P/L History

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%


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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.