Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: 12/1 NAP has been completely missed in Musselburgh market

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter looks to Musselburgh and Cheltenham for his bets on Monday.

Daryl Carter kicks off the new year with four selections from Musselburgh and Cheltenham and says his NAP will take a world of beating if he repeats his latest run...

  • Look to the Skeltons at Musselburgh

  • Donald McCain runner has an excellent chance

  • Back Ed Keeper to reproduce Newbury goods.


13:10 Musselburgh - Back In This World @ BSP 1pt

In This World - currently 9/43.25 on the Betfair Sportsbook - made a very encouraging second start of the season when doing well from the rear of a slowly run affair at Cheltenham to get within two lengths of the winner who had previously finished sixth in the Greatwood Hurdle and had the run of the race.

The time figure called for horses from the rear of the field to be upgraded on December 15, and he caught the eye with a very strong finishing effort. What's more, this horse promised plenty earlier in his career and having been plagued with issues, his latest run was a real step back in the right direction.

He looks almost certain to end the season higher than his current rating of 120, and the presence of Harry Skelton can only be a positive. He has an excellent chance against more exposed horses and rates one of the day's better bets if he can repeat his effort at the home of jumps racing last time, with the move up in distance another positive.

9/43.25 looks his basement price, so take no less but wait for BSP for a better price.

13:10 Musselburgh - Back In This World @ BSP

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13:45 Musselburgh - Back Ballygeary @ 12/113.00 1pt e/w (4 places) NAP

Donald McCain has won two of the last three of this event, and he saddles two with Ballygeary - 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - easily the most interesting and less exposed.

The seven-year-old was a big eye-catcher at Cheltenham on his penultimate start when given too much to do by the winner, who was primmed to run well and had the run of the race. Ballygeary passed all rivals bar the first and second and had left his race in the middle part, having given away too much ground. Still, he clocked an identical circuit time figure to the winner and left the firm impression this rating of 119 was well within reach.

He scored in a two-runner affair at Banger 30 days ago in a workmanlike fashion, but that small field affair when forced to make his own running was simply a case of job done.

Today's bigger field scenario at a tighter track should suit well, and he is not short of pace for a race of this nature. He ran his Cheltenham race on the same card as Williethebuilder and dwarfed his circuit time.

He looks overpriced for a trainer with a good record in this event, and I suspect this has been his target.

With plenty of competition for the lead, this could set up well for the unexposed seven-year-old, who has a 4-6 strike rate over hurdles, and he easily brushed aside Caithness in a Novice Hurdle at Kelso, giving him seven pounds under a penalty in March - he is now 13 lb better off.

He looks to have been completely missed in the market and is fancied to make a bold bid for glory and continue his progressive thread

He looks overpriced at any 6/17.00 or bigger.

13:45 Musselburgh - Back Ballygeary @ 12/113.00

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14:20 Musselburgh - Back Frere D'Armes @ BSP 1pt

Frere D'Armes - currently 7/42.75 on the Betfair Sportsbook - gave the firm impression that a return to form was imminent when running second at Ascot behind Boothill, and with no such competition here, this looks like a great opportunity to get back to winning ways.

He had cut no mustard on his final season start at Ayr or Ascot on return, but there seem plausible excuses for those runs. Outside of those efforts, he looks remarkably well handicapped given the horses he has bumped into and beaten, which includes the likes of Haddex Des Obeaux (157), and his recent form has already been boosted by the third Triple Trade.

The step up in distance should hold no fears, given how he saw out his Newbury victory in an excellent time figure last November when holding off Aucunrisque and Newbury Gold Cup winner Datsalrightgino.

This is much, much calmer waters today, taking on mainly exposed older rivals with only two aged below nine years old, and he has had the holding of one of those on his most recent outing. There's plenty of pace in this contest, which should suit, and he is hard to ignore despite this track holding some question marks, which is why he is not a stronger staked bet.

There are dangers here. Coopers Cross could enjoy getting back on a sounder surface, but whether he has the pace to challenge around here is debatable. With the market moving, it's best to back at BSP where he is currently 2/13.00.

14:20 Musselburgh - Back Frere D'Armes @ BSP

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14:40 Cheltenham - Back Ed Keeper @ 5/23.50 2pt

The day best bet comes in the form of the unexposed Ed Keeper - 5/23.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who ran an excellent race at Newbury when upped to 3m for the first time, clocking an outstanding circuit time figure and closing sectionals.

An eight-pound rise for Sam Thomas' improving six-year-old surely underestimates his ability. He bettered the Long Distance Grade 2 hurdle winner at every possible point and was on the sharp end of a powerful gallop.

The Grade 2 comparative race has since produced the Grade 1 Longwalk Hurdle runner-up at Ascot next time, and the pacesetter Mahons Glory won at Kempton by 11 lengths.

Not only did Ed Keeper demolish the comparative 3m Grade 2 race, but he clocked a final circuit time quicker than Jeriko Du Reponet - who has since won again - and only narrowly slower than Juvenile winner Woodhoo.

His sectionals marry up well with the races run over 2m, clocking an almost identical four out-to-finish time, and there can be no way on that evidence that he is not at least worthy of a rating in the 140 in due course, meaning he could prove ten pounds ahead of the handicapper today.

Today's ground conditions are differing, so expecting a repeat of that performance may be unwise, but it is tough to ignore his claims, particularly given the 16-length fifth has come out and won at the same venue next time easily, and the 25-length eight has chased home the useful Howlingmadmurdock at Carlisle next time.

With the scope for further progress, he looks to be the one to be on. Any 5/23.50 or bigger is acceptable as I make him a stronger favourite than the market does around 11/82.38, mainly armed with the recent time figure of Springwell Bay and Butch.

Springwell Bay has a fitting of a first-time tongue-tie and is now moving up to 3m for the first time. While he was a shoo-in for a much lesser race last time, he faces a far stiffer task today over an unknown distance.

The biggest danger may come from The Newest One, who clocked a good figure when chasing home Buddy One - better than Springwell Bay on the card and will handle conditions and is the each-way play in the race for those looking for something at a bigger price but there are only three to play for.

14:40 Cheltenham - Back Ed Keeper @ 5/23.50

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Read Cheltenham Focus Week 8 Here.

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Daryl's P/L

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% BSP = +99.4pts ROI +7.84%

2024 P/L = Updated monthly Feb 1st

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