Cheltenham Festival Focus: Christmas covered and King George cleared up

• Christmas reviewed in-depth

• Division separated now for easy tracking

• Happy with our current position for now

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It was a hit-and-miss this Christmas for our ante-post selections. Sir Gino advised in week one, looked very good and is now 6/17.00 following a Kempton romp.

Irish Point won the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown and is now 5/16.00, while Jeriko Du Reponet won in fine style at Newbury and is now 5/16.00.

Bubbles burst, however, with Mighty Bandit seemingly not himself and out to 20/121.00 from 8/19.00 and Flooring Porter out to 25/126.00 from 14/115.00.

As it's the turn of the year, this column will now review the action in division format. We kick off with the open chase and hurdlers.

Barking mad if Irish Point misses Cheltenham for Aintree

On Saturday December 23, Crambo won the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle and showed a tremendous attitude to fight off the challenge from Paisley Park to get up on the line. He looked like a dour stayer and had no trouble lying up in the middle of the pack in a race run at a good gallop.

Given the lack of depth, there's no reason he shouldn't go well in the Stayers' Hurdle, and his 8/19.00 could look more like 5/23.50 on the day. He would be very much toward the top of my shortlist.

The horse that beat Crambo at Aintree at the end of last season was our ante-post selection for the Stayers' Hurdle Irish Point, who is now 5/16.00 for the race in March, having laid down a strong marker in winning the Grade 1 Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle in testing conditions at Leopardstown on December 28.

That was very impressive from Irish Point!

Now 4/1 from 16/1 for the Stayers Hurdlepic.twitter.com/tzUblhXaJj

-- Betfair Racing (@BetfairRacing) December 28, 2023

Irish Point cruised through a steady run affair but effortlessly put 11 lengths between himself and the runner-up Asterion Forlonge. He relished the move up in distance as his speed figure from Aintree suggested he would, and this classy youngster has now proven to be the form horse for the Stayers' Hurdle thanks to Crambo's efforts at Ascot.

He easily scalped last year's winner of the Leopardstown Grade 1 in Home By The Lee, who could only manage a 20-length fifth despite having the run of the race. Home By The Lee finished fifth in last year's Stayers' Hurdle, with the runner-up Dashel Drasher beaten at Ascot by Crambo.

The two youngsters both look like the form horses for the Stayers' Hurdle - a division that needs new blood - and with improvement to come from both, it's hard to think these two wouldn't be in the thick of things come March.

Connections of Irish Point also have Teahupoo, who could only manage third behind Dashel Drasher and Sire Du Berlais in last year's Stayers' Hurdle, with three lengths separating the first five home.

Teahupoo currently 4/15.00 for the Stayers' Hurdle remains on course for the race and will arrive fresh. However, Irish Point would and should be their number one for the race after his performance at Leopardstown, with an unexposed profile at 3m.

It would be a travesty if the form horse in Irish Point should miss Cheltenham for Aintree. Seeing anything emerging as a stronger contender than Crambo or Irish Point is exceptionally tough.

King George thriller leaves a sour taste for Shishkin punters

I was on Shishkin to win the King George on December 26, and I have no shadow of a doubt that had he stood up at the second last, he would have won the race convincingly.

I can say that confidently, having had a saver on the winner Hewick, who came through to pick up the pieces from a tiring Bravemansgame and Allaho, who both look shadows of their former selves.

INCREDIBLE!!!!!

Hewick comes from the clouds in a dramatic finish G1 King George VI Chase to give @jhanlonracing & Gavin Sheehan victory in the @kemptonparkrace feature pic.twitter.com/J0UoJh6Eeu

-- Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 26, 2023

Hewick was flat out from the flag fall but kept up to his task by Gavin Sheehan to run out a comfortable winner. He was fading in last season's Gold Cup on the turn into the home straight but strangely looked like a strong stayer here. He is unlikely to get as good ground as he had at Kempton (which seems important to him) when lining up in March. Still, he must be taken seriously and is now 16/117.00.

Hewick was given reminders before the seventh from home, and many have made the "opinionated" comment with no substance to back it up that they went too hard. That's not the case.

Shishkin and Frodon led the first circuit with an almost identical time figure from the first fence to the last in the home straight first time as Il Est Francias and Hermes Allen in the Kauto Star earlier on the card.

In the second circuit, we see how good Il Est Francais is and possibly how lacklustre the older horses (other than Shishkin) are - their first fence times to the final winning line differed more than 19 lengths.

Il Est Francais was 19 lengths quicker than King George's runner-up Allaho from the first fence to the finish line.

Il Est Francais reached the fifth fence from home at 4.17.99, and Allhao at 4.22.00, some 16 lengths behind, and the Kauto Star winner was ten lengths quicker from the third last to the line.

The closing sectionals see Allaho slow from 2-1, along with Bravemansgame, who were both slightly hampered by the unseating of Shishkin. Hewick, with a clear path, came home stronger than both but made no ground until after the second last and was 4.5 lengths slower than Il Est Francais from three out to the finish.

The only time winner Hewick made any ground on the leaders was after the second last when Shishkin came down, causing interference. Hewick's closing sections were still much slower than Il Est Francais.

Proof in the sectionals that Shishkin may have won King George

The sectionals tell us Hewick made up six lengths on Allaho and Bravemansgame from 3-f.

Hewick was 1.88 seconds or 7.5 lengths behind Shishkin jumping the third last, and 2.07secs or 8.2 lengths behind Shishkin at the second last, meaning Shishkin was going away from Hewick.

In contrast, Hewick was 1.5 secs or six lengths behind Allaho at the third last and only 1.34 secs or five lengths behind Allaho at the second last. This suggests Allaho was slowing, but in no certain terms does it mean Shishkin would have been caught like Allaho and Bravemansgame were.

Shishkin is 12/113.00 for the Gold Cup, which looks ridiculously overpriced considering this was his first start of the season, and he was the moral winner of the race. All roads lead to the Gold Cup.

In isolation, this reflects well on Shishkin, but still, on the comparative time with Il Est Francais, it does ask a question of the older horses who would have never got near the Kauto Star winner according to the sectional times.

Gallopin Des Champs bounced right back to form with a demolition job in the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown on December 28, giving a beating to his closest rival in the Cheltenham Gold Cup market, Gerri Colombe.

This was an outstanding display and possibly even a career-best effort. It's hard to forget just how good he was in last season's Cheltenham feature, and it will take a very good one to beat him again this year. He is 5/42.25 for the Gold Cup and exceptionally hard not to like for back-to-back wins, particularly in light of the King George.

The bubble has been burst a bit for Gerri Colombe, for whom many felt he was good, just not Gallopin Des Champs good at the depths of their hearts, and that proved the case. Perhaps it's harsh, given it was just his second start outside of Novice company, but he has an almighty bridge to the gap. Gerri Colombe is now 10/111.00 for the Gold Cup, but I'd say he will certainly be better than he showed here at Cheltenham.

Constitution Hill looked better than ever at Kempton

Constitution Hill won the Christmas Hurdle on December 26 at Kempton effortlessly. Indeed, he looked better than ever, and his hurdling was sensational. There's no stick to beat this remarkable horse, and another Champion Hurdle awaits, for which he is 2/51.40 and unopposable.

State Man won the Grade 1 Matheson Hurdle, scalping Impaire Et Passe and blowing his wow factor out of the water on December 29 at Leopardstown.

Impaire Et Passe shaped well but could never land a glove on State Man, who was always well-positioned and had too much speed for his stablemate. State Man is unfortunate to be around simultaneously as Constitution Hill, as he is a clear and very good second-best in this division.

As for Impaire Et Passe, small money arrived in the Betfair Exchange market for him for the Arkle, but that looks unlikely, and he may have few avenues to go regarding Cheltenham. The Stayers Hurdle could be on the agender.

Luccia got her career back on track by winning the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle off of a rating of 136 when making all at Ascot on December 23. She is now 16/117.00 for the Mares Hurdle, and she could go well there if continuing to improve, but her price doesn't appeal for now.

Dinoblue won the Grade 1 Chase at Leopardstown on December 27 over 2m. She's a good horse, but she still has the stamina to prove over 2m4f for the Mares Chase where she is 5/23.50. The Grade 1 she won was handed to her on a plate. Dysart Dynamo was held up for the first time in his career, which didn't work.

Paul Townend chose Gentleman De Me, who only shows his form in the new year, while Saint Roi looks to be being handicapped, and Captain Guinness does his best work when fresh with a record of 11101 off a break, and his only defeat when post-race abnormal. I wouldn't get carried away with her now.

Limerick Lace won at Doncaster on December 29 to put away the British horses and continue her improvement. She has now been added to this market at 8/19.00 - better late than never, I guess. She has a good chance if heading this way but won't be much shorter than this on the day.

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Novice Hurdlers

Welcome To Cartries took a step forward, moving up to 2m5f at Ascot on December 22. He ground out the victory, looking in need of every yard of the new trip, having missed the second last flight, but looks like a very promising chaser in the making.

He is now a tempting 20/121.00 for the Albert Bartlett, which is his target according to his trainer, following this win, and will be taking the same route as the yard's 2023 Albert Bartlett winner Stay Away Fay with a visit to Doncaster for the River Don. He is not one to sleep on!

Jango Baie won the Grade 1 Formby Novices Hurdle (formerly known as the Tolworth Hurdle as Sandown) on December 26 for Nicky Henderson. The race was at the mercy of Royal Bond winner and Irish raider Farrens Glory before he came down at the second last.

This is not form to get excited about for the Supreme. This was run steadily, and comments from runner-up trainer Alan King on Favour And Fortune saying, "We've got to think about the Supreme", are so wide of the mark it's a little worrying for the British contingent. Favour And Fortune is 25/126.00 for the Supreme Novice Hurdle, but I would happily lay 100/1101.00 if anyone wants it.

The 2m Maiden Hurdle at Leopardstown on December 26 has been won by some notable names, including Klassical Dream and High Definition, but this year, it was the promising No Flies On Him. This race was run much quicker than the following Maiden Hurdle won by King Of Kingsfield, and he looks like a nice prospect.

He had beaten Aintree Grade 1 winner Jango Baie in a Point to Point over 2m4f in February, and the third had been six lengths behind It's For Me at Punchestown on return, having had a solid Juvenile campaign last season. He is not one to get too excited about just yet, but this was a promising start.

King Of Kingsfield gave Farren Glory a good boost, having finished runner-up to him in the Royal Bond last time when scalping the well-fancied (but overhyped) Mirazur West on December 26 at Leopardstown. This looked like a deep race on paper and nicely tied in some of the Novice Hurdle form. The winner could kick on and find himself with a nice handicap mark come March, but his 16/117.00 wouldn't appeal for the Supreme Novice, although this was much better, having been ridden off the pace.

Those fans of Mirazur West must be very concerned with his jumping out to the right. He lost plenty of ground, and although sure to come on for the run and pick up his fair share of races, you would want to see him on a left-handed track again before backing for Cheltenham. He is now 33/134.00 for the Supreme Novice.

At Limerick on December 26, Loughglynn won the 3m Land Rover Novice Hurdle Grade 2. Every year, this race seems to be run at a plodding pace, but the winner is now unbeaten over hurdles and beat Firefox in a Naas Bumper in 2022. He is going the right way, but an RPR of 128 and his stamina for an Albert Bartlett, being far from confirmed on this evidence, means he is very short at 14/115.00.

Caldwell Potter won the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle in excellent style at Leopardstown on December 27. He powered away from what looked like a deep field on paper and put his stamina to good use in testing ground conditions. This race saw the cream rise to the top with many promising prospects with unbeaten records. Caldwell Potter's victory was a good form boost for It's For Me 10/111.00 for the Supreme, and Caldwell Potter - 12/113.00 for the Ballymore - looks sure to step up in trip.

Cracking performance

Relentless from Caldwell Potter who emulates his late brother Mighty Potter with glory in the G1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle@LeopardstownRC | @gelliott_racing | @jackkennedy15 pic.twitter.com/JsVvHL8LXo

-- Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 27, 2023

Favourite Daddy Long Legs - now 33/134.00 for the Supreme - was said to have never travelled. His jumping is too slow for a Supreme Novice candidate and will likely be seen to better effect up in the distance, but he was always out of his comfort zone. Perhaps he is not one to give up on just yet, given the regard he is held, but he would be more suited to middle trips.

Down Memory Lane - now 25/126.00 for the Supreme seemed to have little excuse. We highlighted his very slow time in winning a weak Maiden Hurdle before this, and perhaps he is not up to the class of a Grade 1 horse - after all, I believe top-class horses do handle most ground types.

Predators Gold was running over a trip shy of what he wanted but gives this form a strong look and would have finished closer if not for a blunder at the final flight. He should be considered for a Ballymore @ 14/115.00 but lacks that wow factor.

It's worth noting that the Champion Novice Hurdle is an excellent pointer to the Punchestown Champion Novice at the end of the season rather than the Supreme Novice at Cheltenham. There doesn't look like a Supreme winner in here.

Jeriko and Ballyburn look like excellent prospects for Supreme and Ballymore

Ballyburn won his Maiden Hurdle over 2m4f in effortless style by 25 lengths, beating Cleatus Poolaw, who had been 13 lengths behind Daddy Long Legs at Thurles last time. This was much better from Ballyburn, who travelled strongly and quickened away.

Again, there is a lack of form here, but connections expressed that this trip or further is the way he will go.

He is now 4/15.00 favourite for the Ballymore.

It looks as though the Ballymore will be the target. He has a bit of class, and early-season backers for this race can be pleased, particularly given the sectionals of this race married up well with State Man, and he was plenty quicker than Jetara.

He sets the standard for the Ballymore and currently sits at the top of my list, with his form working out at every turn.

Talking of standard setters, Jeriko Du Reponet is now 5/16.00 for the Supreme Novice Hurdle after scoring effortlessly at Newbury. He is quietly going about his business.

Once they finally got going after holding at the start for nearly 30 seconds, the race was run at a steady gallop. Still, Jeriko Du Reponet made ground at every hurdle and wanted to go a yard quicker than the pace dictated by Officer Of State.

The most impressive part was his finishing speed over the last to the line, effortlessly clocking 20.16 seconds - 14 lengths quicker than the handicap winner Rambo T and miles quicker than the Challow Hurdle.

Jeriko Du Reponet clocked a circuit time of 4.01.63, and Rambo T, winning a handicap off 123 carrying almost a stone less, clocked 4.01.59, while Captain Teague's Challow was 4.04.54. The Henderson horse effortlessly glided home under minimal pressure.

A little bit of the bubbly?

Jeriko Du Reponet is his name

We're top industry price at 6/1 on him winning the Supreme at the Cheltenham Festival.

pic.twitter.com/b5l76FEnVX

-- Betfair Racing (@BetfairRacing) December 30, 2023

The Challow Hurdle went harder than both comparative races early, and leader Lookaway made the Grade 1 contest a stiff test of stamina and perhaps did too much too soon along with Jukebox Man.

However, both were beaten less than two lengths by the well-positioned Captain Teague. Deteriorating ground conditions may have been a factor in the time comparisons, but Jeriko Du Reponet's speed from three to the finish makes him an excellent prospect. The three to finish times are as follows:

Spring Note - 1.01.90
Jeriko Du Reponet - 56.79
Captain Teague - 1.07.69
Rambo T - 1.101.69

Jeriko Du Reponet is almost certain to appreciate a quicker surface than he had today, and better can now be expected as he develops into Britain's top Supreme Novice Hurdle contender, with this rated around 140. He still needs more, but that's highly likely in a well-run race.

Captain Teague looks like an Albert Bartlett horse to me 14/115.00, but he will need to improve on this, although perhaps his authority was masked by his idling in front.

The Challow Hurdle circuit time was nearly 12 lengths slower than the Handicap winner Rambo T. This suggests it's high 130's to 140 form given how the race was run (hard early), which will put him in the mix for the 3m race at the festival but some way off a Ballymore prospect for which he will need to run above 150.

The race has some solid form, and Lookaway is a good yardstick, having finished second in the Greatwood Handicap. He is a rock-solid 140 horse, but it is hard to argue any better, and this run was not over his best trip.

The Jukebox Man rated 127 before this run came out well to suggest he is a mid-130s performer but had been readily brushed aside by Gidleigh Park in a bumper at Chepstow but had also beaten Cleatus Poolaw (second to Daddy Long Legs and Ballyburn) in a Point to Point.

Johnnywho shaped like the best horse in the race before his inexperience under pressure cost him. He stayed on to run within two lengths at the line and is another that looks like an Albert Bartlett horse 16/117.00. Interestingly, connections said he had a foot infection before this race, so perhaps better can be expected.

It would be surprising if any of these 140 top-rated forms are good enough to win an Albert Bartlett, but it's solid form.

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Juvenile Hurdlers

Kala Conti won the Grade 2 Mercesdes-Benz Juvenile Hurdle on December 26 and led home a 1,2,3 covered by 3/4 of a length.

She was well positioned in a race that turned into a sprint but was notably difficult to pull up after the line. She was cut into 12/113.00 for the Triumph Hurdle, which wouldn't appeal particularly given the disappointment of stablemate and clear first choice on the day Mighty Bandit, who was found to have mucus in his nose post-race.

Mighty Bandit is now 20/121.00 for the Triumph Hurdle in March. He is not one to write off just yet.

This Mercedes-Benz is a race to keep on the right side of. It has produced plenty of Triumph Hurdle placed horses, and there were a few eye-catchers for a potential tilt at the Boodles Handicap. I will keep that for down the line, though, when we have the betting.

At Limerick on December 26, Bunting won as he liked in the 3yo Maiden Hurdle, effortlessly pulling clear of weak opposition. He looks like a work in progress for the Willie Mullins yard, and he did jump down his hurdles out the right, which would be a concern for Cheltenham.

An RPR of 116 means he needs plenty of work to be considered a serious Triumph Hurdle candidate, for which he is now a very short 8/19.00, but he did leave the impression there could be plenty more to come.

Sir Gino a star being born at Kempton

"Once it all comes together, he'll be something to be reckoned with"

Nico De Boinville is optimistic about Sir Gino's future #ITVRacing pic.twitter.com/KCqJL9swSx

-- ITV Racing (@itvracing) December 27, 2023

Nicky Henderson and our ante-post Triumph Hurdle selection from week one, Sir Gino, ran out an effortless winner on British debut on December 26. He cruised through the race and always wanted to go a yard quicker than his inferior rivals would allow him, which likely contributed to his sloppy jumping.

However, that didn't stop him from running out a brilliant winner of the race for a yard who has a good record.

He has the size and scope to be a wonderful chaser down the line, and his push-button acceleration from the second last to the final flight was very impressive to the eye. He was in a different league to his admittedly weak opposition, but this must be a serious contender for the Triumph Hurdle.

Interestingly, Nico de Boinvilles's comments after the race, "When he gets his jumping together, he will be a force to be reckoned with," are uncharacteristic of the jockey. He is well worth his 6/17.00 for the Triumph Hurdle.

I am thrilled with our position here.

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Novice Chasers

The usually informative 2m Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase on December 26 was won by Found A Fifty, who dropped back in distance, having been well beaten by I Am Maximus at Fairyhouse in the Drinmore last time.

This was a farce of a race when comparing it to the handicap later on the card. Found A Fifty was given a very, very soft lead. The winner attempted to duck out early in the race and jumped violently right for much of the contest but, despite all this, won with ease over My Mate Mozzie, who was ridden to be placed.

This was run remarkably slowly for a Grade 1 contest. At fence four, Found A Fifty was 13 lengths behind the handicap leader, and at fence five, it would have been stone-cold last. By the time Found A Fifty reached the second last fence, they were 24 lengths behind the handicap winner.

The contest turned into a dash from the second last. It was a very poor judge of pace from Patrick Mullins onboard the disappointing Facile Vega, who he strangled for much of the race. This was one of the worst rides I have seen, particularly as it took Mullins until five out to realise that the leader was jumping across him.

Found A Fifty is now 10/111.00 for the Arkle and Facile Vega out to 9/110.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook. Found A Fifty is not backable after this.

On the other hand, Facile Vega's run was surely too bad to be true, and he is better than this. His jumping was much better than his debut, but he finished like something was a miss and this was a messy race with a poor time figure.

Willie Mullins mentioned that he "might need to go up in trip" as he did with Vautour, who also bombed out in this race, so his target is now unclear.

At Kempton on December 26, 3m Kauto Star winner Il Est Francais devoured his rivals from the front and performed outstandingly. However, we won't dwell on him too much as the French Gold Cup in May is his reported target, with a likelihood of skipping Cheltenham and returning to Britain for the King George next season.

He is 10/111.00 for the Brown Advisory, which suggests he is unlikely to run as he would surely be closer to the 2/13.00 if confirmed.

Still, the Kauto Star result does at least suggest Hermes Allen has a limit to his ability, considering he couldn't match the winner for pace or lay a glove on him in the closing stages. He is another likely to miss Cheltenham for Aintree, one suspects.

Marine National finally made his racecourse debut on December 27 at Leopardstown, winning effortlessly in a 2m Beginners' chase over firm footings. The form is questionable at best, and I wasn't blown away, but it was the perfect introduction, and he could do no more than win hard-held.

Marine Nationale 'foot-perfect' @Michael_OSull full of praise for Barry Connell's returning star #EveryRacingMomentpic.twitter.com/VxmlsmBqtS

-- Horse Racing Ireland (@HRIRacing) December 27, 2023

He is an exciting prospect, no doubt, and there were no chinks in his jumping to attack. Providing he stays fit and well, there's little reason to oppose him at 4/51.80 for the Arkle come March on this evidence, with the time figure backing up the performance and the lack of depth in opposition.

Willie Mullins' array of talent in the Novice chase division was well advertised by Fact To File, winning his Beginners Chase over 2m5f on December 28. He won this effortlessly and looked like a sizeable unit.

It's easy to see why they skipped a Novice hurdle campaign with him. He could easily go to the Brown Advisory or the Turners Chase, for which he is 8/19.00 and 14/115.00. He is hard to work out, but my best guess would be the 3m. However, Willie Mullins's bingo will likely continue until the day with this one - he still needs to qualify for an NH Chase.

At Limerick on December 28, Gaelic Warrior won the 2m3f Grade 1 Faugheen Novice Chase in outstanding fashion. He glided from fence to fence, and this time, his jumping out to the right was not as pronounced as it had been on debut at Punchestown.

His only two defeats have come at Cheltenham, but he is a top-class horse, whether 3m or 2m. He is now 1/12.00 for the Turners Chase, and it's hard not to give this performance a rating close to 160, having beaten Il Etait Temps (147) easily by five lengths.

When watching his fluent jumping, I had to admit I thought I was watching an Arkle horse for which he is 12/113.00. Willie Mullins has admitted he would have no problem dropping back in distance with him, and after Facile Vega's dismal performance, you would have to think that is more likely than ever.

He shows brilliant speed from one fence to another, and while the old course may concern a few with it being a tighter track, I doubt that will be the reason behind any decision-making. It's a waiting game, but he is a horse that could win over any distance.

I've had a small bet on the 12/113.00 for the Arkle, but I would be surprised if he dropped him back in distance. I see him persevering with Facile Vega, Blood Destiny and Il Etait Temps in this division.

Grangeclare West finally put it all together - a year too late for me - when winning the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novices Chase brilliantly. He crossed the line, pulling a cart, and looked exceptional. He cost a small fortune and is now fulfilling his potential. He is now 7/24.50 favourite for the Brown Advisory with us and worthy of it too.

Grangeclare West has no experience with Cheltenham, but that shouldn't be a concern. He looks like an improved model now upped to 3m, and he was once a Ballymore favourite this time last year. He may want bottomless ground; quicker going in the spring could be his undoing.

Runner-up Corbetts Cross doesn't jump well enough to be considered for the Brown Advisory, and the sharp old course will see him left well behind. His 10/111.00 looks mighty short and looked like a National Hunt Chase horse to my eye.

I would add that it's not worth giving up on Flooring Porter 25/126.00, who will have the Brown Advisory as his target and was racing on the worst of the ground on the inside rail, but his rider had no choice given his tendency to hang left and wouldn't have been suited coming wide. He loves Cheltenham and should not be underestimated. Plenty of Brown Advisory winners have been beaten before winning this race.

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