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Chance Walking On Air to upset Skelton favourite
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Southwell selection down in grade
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Silver can grab gold
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It might be that L'Eau du Sud is miles better than these, but he has had multiple intended engagements for this chasing debut, with connections seemingly looking for a soft opportunity. That must be a slight concern, considering he got better as the year went on last term, and he would ideally want easier ground than this.
Walking On Air - 15/28.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - offered lots of promise for Nicky Henderson, and while moving to the Gary Brown yard can hardly be seen as an upgrade, the selection was highly thought of with a view to going chasing.
He made a strong chase debut for Seven Barrows at Newbury last year when going down by a neck to a subsequent Grade 2 winner in Henry's Friend when attempting to give that rival 12 lb, and he jumped poorly in the main. Still, he showed a strong engine to finish how he did in that contest, and the better ground today will be no issue.
With that first chase experience under his belt and David Bass in the saddle, knowing his mount stays further than this, he could put pressure on the inexperienced Skelton runner and be hard to catch.
15/28.50 or bigger looks fair for an upset.
14:05 Stratford - Back Walking On Air
The unexposed horses have been thrust to the top of this betting, but the market may have made a mistake. Neither Karl Burke's nor Tom Clover's horses look particularly well treated on the balance of their form, which means there must be some good value down the field.
Silver Samurai - 11/112.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - shaped with promise here last time in a stronger race than this, and today represents a dip back into Class 4 company.
He is zero for ten on the AW, but that doesn't tell the story, as he has had plenty of near misses. He chased home two unexposed three-year-olds over course and distance last time and had to wait for room to make his challenge. Take out the runaway winner, who was thrown in and given a 13 lb rise in the handicap, and he has been beaten just 3/4 of a length under minimal pressure with the jock using his stick just once.
He doesn't win often enough to be considered a banker by any means, but he should get a race run to suit. He is handicapped to go close if he can build on his latest outing, and this looks like a fine opportunity.
8/19.00 or bigger is acceptable.
Recommended Bet
18:15 Southwell - Back Silver Samurai