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Two selections
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Johnny is good value bigger than 8/131.61
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Chance 11/112.00 shot moving up in trip
Indeed, the day's best bet is Johhnywho - 5/61.84 on the Betfair Sportsbook. His price is skinny for a selection in this column, but the racing is hardly as inspiring as the weekend ahead, and he looks like a solid wager at a venue where he has performed excellently well in the past.
He didn't kick on in the staying division last year, but hurdles were always a means to an end for the talented point-to-point winner, and I expect him to be one of the novices from last term to turn it up a notch now tackling the larger obstacles.
The first hurdle he jumped in public was like a chaser, and while he has not won since his Novice Hurdle victory, he offered plenty of promise against some useful rivals. The move back down in distance is a positive, as he looked a non-stayer at times over three miles.
Today, he has excellent conditions and a proven record fresh, and he is one of the most exciting runners on any card on Thursday.
The market could decide his fate, but 5/61.84 looks pretty fair, given the improvement I expect. I understand this is not a bet for everyone but if you are playing, no shorter than 8/131.61.
13:48 Carlisle - Back Johnnywho
The most reliable option in this contest is Dan Skelton's race-fit mare, Shakeyataifeather, but Harry Skelton's absence and the penalty make her a little less appealing.
Joe Tizzard's Sweet Caryline looked like an improved model at Newton Abbot when chasing home an easy but useful winner in the 124-rated Huelgoat. The winner had the run of the race, but this mare was being taught her trade, and she learned plenty throughout. She particularly caught the eye approaching the second last, and she finished off her race well.
Circuit time comparisons rate her performance around 105, so she must improve, but that is entirely possible.
The one that has been missed in this market is the former Gordon Elliott horse Versace Twentyone - 11/112.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook. A winner of a Roscommon bumper over the now 126-rated Hey Sunshine in July, she has been crying out for a step up in trip in three hurdle starts this summer, and her race fitness could prove a significant advantage.
She stuck on well, having been outpaced at Hereford last time, and made up significant ground on the Fergal O'Brien winner and pulled eight lengths clear of the third.
Her improvement hangs in the move up in trip suiting her, but her pedigree points to it being the correct move. Chance her at 11/112.00 or bigger.
14:45 Ludlow - Back Versace Twentyone