Cheltenham Festival Focus: Christmas unwrapped but 12/1 for the Ryanair looks like a gift still to open

• Sir Gino was simply sublime, but was Con Hill?

• Gaelic Warrior must step up in trip to win at the festival

• Back 12/113.00 Ryanair chance

In week 10 of the Cheltenham Focus column, Daryl Carter rounds up the notable action relevant to the Cheltenham Festival from a busy Christmas period. He dives into the performance of Constitution Hill and Sir Gino's miraculous display. Daryl touches on beaten horses and all the racing under the radar in a blockbuster column.

Banbridge was great, but impossible to back ante-post

Potters Charm's victory in the Grade 1 Formby Novices' Hurdle was far from a Cheltenham Festival-winning performance. We have continuously commented in this column that Potters Charm (146) and Valgrand (140) ratings (and all British Novices) have been inflated, and this is further proof that this is the case. Potters Charm is worth a rating of around 139 - 15lb below the average required to win a festival novice race.

There is no evidence to suggest his rivals in this race - Celtic Dino (134), Country Mile (138) or Roadlesstravelled (138) - are worthy of their respective ratings yet either, so his 8/19.00 for the Turners Novice Hurdle does not appeal (he goes straight there).

At Kempton, The Jukebox Man won the Kauto Star Novices Chase Grade 1 in fine style. He was entitled to win this race on form. He is a smart horse, but this is another race that lacks the depth of a usual Grade 1 contest and can be downgraded. Ben Pauling's runner is the standout British Brown Advisory 5/16.00 candidate, but he has run to the low 150s and will need to reach the mid-high 160s to be competitive against the Irish.

Banbridge won the King George at Kempton as he put in a stout-staying performance to reel in the runaway leader Il Est Francias in the closing stages. This was a gutsy performance from Joseph O'Brien's runner. Still, as for the Cheltenham Festival, he remains ground-dependent and unreliable for an ante-post bet, with plans reportedly fluid on his final destination.

Nicky Henderson's Kientzheim won on her debut at Kempton in good style - a half-sister to 1m4f AQPS Flat and 2m hurdle winner Joyeuse, whose dam is a half-sister to the same connections' Champion Hurdle winner Epatante. She was 2-3 in French bumpers and has been made 12/113.00 for the Mares Novice Hurdle.

She jumped the path and edged to her right at several flights, notably the last. Still, she travelled strongly in a steadily early run affair (around nine seconds slower than the Christmas Hurdle Grade 1 circuit time) but quickened up very nicely from three out to the finish to win going away. She looks smart, alright, and I'd ignore the initial RPR of 106 (since changed to 113) entirely with this closer to 120.

King Con bounces back, but...

Constitution Hill bounced back to become the first three-time winner of the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day. Nicky Henderson's stable star was cut into 8/111.73 for the Champion Hurdle, having taken the scalp of Lossiemouth - now 8/19.00.

Constitution Hill felt the stick from Nico De Boinville for the first time in his career but found plenty when asked. He travelled powerfully through the race, which went a stop-start gallop, and he showed no ill effects from the hiccups that have kept him off the track for over a year.

CONSTITUTION HILL - THE KING IS BACK

Nine runs
Nine wins
Christmas Hurdle
Champion Hurdle
Fighting Fifth Hurdle
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Tolworth Hurdle
What a racehorse pic.twitter.com/5ffREhRu0X

-- Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 26, 2024

The overall time of this race was the quickest of Constitution Hill's three Christmas Hurdles by six seconds, with only Yanworth in 2016 recording a better time (by 0.40 secs) in the last 10 years. That tells us plenty about the ground and little about what version of Constitution Hill we saw, given Silver Streak, under easier ground conditions, was only two seconds slower in 2020.

There was plenty to like about the visual impression as the Henderson horse went through the race with plenty of zest and jumped accurately. He can be forgiven for tiring late, with closing sectionals only narrowly quicker than stablemate mare Kientzheim from the second last to the line.

However, Constitution Hill slammed a similar type to the third Burdett Road (142) last year in Rubaud (149) hard-held on the bridle and, this time was made to work much harder for a similar winning distance (nine lengths). Constitution Hill came off the bridle once he jumped the last only one length ahead of Burdett Road, who made a hash of the final flight and lost any remote chance he had. Still, one would have expected Constitution Hill to glide past that rival given the luxury of the performances he has offered, but this was an average Champion Hurdle performance.

One could argue that Burdett Road is an improver, but the evidence doesn't suggest that just yet, and it may be wise to tread with caution on that front.

Watching this race back with Lossiemouth's ignorance, perhaps the same result wouldn't have had the glittering glow without her presence and an offer of a performance rating of around 159. Still, given the winner's trials and tribulations, that's harsh, but he must now be closely inspected at heavy odds on for the Champion Hurdle.

Lossiemouth "didn't look right" from the off, having to be niggled along to go the gallop, and her rider commented following the race, "she was never at the races". Still, that's the easy out for connections.

She looked like a threat between the second last and final flights and even closed the final hurdle deficit at the line. Lossiemouth looked undercooked, and perhaps a dawdle in the Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse on her seasonal debut didn't shake the cobwebs as much as her connections thought. Perhaps, more likely, this was a shock to her system, with the sectionals reflecting that this was the quickest she had been asked to run from flag fall in her entire career.

Lossiemouth looked all speed last season, and her International victory confirms she has the tools required for two miles. However, this was a hard and fast lesson on a tight track on good ground. The Kempton test may have proven too sharp for her, but I believe this will bring her on again given how she finished.
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Following this run, she enhanced her reputation with me, and her trainer shouldn't be too hasty to scrap the Champion Hurdle plan. The more galloping track and stiff finish on slower ground are likely to suit her much better. In the same breath, Constitution Hill is entitled to improve a good deal, too, but the rematch conditions will offer the Mullins camp and backers hope.

Burdett Road's team will await the handicapper's assessment, as he would be of serious interest in a County Hurdle if he is still in the 140s.

Supremely hopeful that Kopek has stacks to come

At Leopardstown, our recent Supreme Novice Hurdle selection, Kopek Des Bordes, made a fine start to life, landing his Maiden Hurdle, which had a deep look on paper. All of Willie Mullins's winners of this race have headed to the Supreme Novice Hurdle in the past 10 years, for which he is now 12/113.00. That still looks like a fair price.

This was a strongly run affair, he was keen for much of the race, jumped out to the left and hit many hurdles. However, on closer inspection, much of his messy jumping was jockey error - particularly at the last. It was a case of the job done running to around 130, and I expect significant improvement next time. He is exciting, and his acceleration into the home straight was electric.

Hellow Neighbour won the Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle and clung on at the line from Willie Mullins' Lady Vega Allen. This was around 20lbs below the rating I gave Lossiemouth in this race two years ago and similar for Fil D'or. The winner is mighty short at 5/16.00 for the Triumph Hurdle. Willie De Houelle was very disappointing in sixth, and Naturally Nimble (fourth) is a leading candidate for the Juvenile Handicap.

Croke Park won the Long Distance Novice Chase. This was a Grade 1 in name only with four runners, and it's hard to get excited about this bunch. Perhaps the runner-up, Better Days Ahead, has just that, but in terms of Brown Advisory claims, there were none here.

At Leopardstown on Sunday, It's For Me unfortunately suffered a fatal injury pulling up after the third flight. He was a talented horse that connections will sorely miss. 150/1151.00 Jeannot Lapin won the race, but the big eye-catcher was No Flies On Him, who looked like he had an easy time.

Gaelic Warrior was beaten in the Grade Rewards Club Chase on his seasonal return by Solness. There was little excuse for last year's Arkle winner, who lacked the pace to pick up the runaway winner. Perhaps he lacked race fitness, but given how well he stayed in his novice hurdle days, this performance screamed of a step up in distance.

It wasn't the strongest Arkle he won last year, and the time was only average, so he has an uphill task taking on the likes of a speedy Jonbon, whose 2023 Arkle was run around 13 seconds quicker than the 2024 renewal. Gaelic Warrior looks tailor-made for the Ryanair 6/17.00 but may find the Champion Chase 5/16.00 happening all too quickly for him.

Romeo Coolio was cut into 10/111.00 for the Supreme Novice Hurdle following his Future Champion Novice Hurdle victory in a very good time figure. He ran out a strong winner, scalping some unexposed horses to run to around the mid-140 mark. This is the highest-rated 2m hurdle performance I have recorded this season, and he is a player in the Supreme Novice Hurdle. Another jolt of improvement is needed to land a typical renewal.

Sublime and sensational from superstar Sir Gino

What a thrill to ride Sir Gino to victory at Kempton today! He was absolutely electric on his first start over fences. Big thanks to the team at home and well done to the boss on his 11th win in this race! @RacingTV pic.twitter.com/9lnX4SKuQF

-- Nico de Boinville (@NdeBoinville) December 27, 2024

The first week of this Cheltenham Festival Focus column in 2023 offered a hopeful punt on Sir Gino for the Triumph Hurdle at 16/117.00 before his British debut at Kempton. By January 27th 2024, Sir Gino was given a headline in this column: "The best juvenile I have ever seen". Fast forward to Kempton on December 27th 2024, and I can confidently say this is one of the best horses I have ever seen.

The incredible Kauto Star, Desert Orchid, and others were racing before my time. Still, Sir Gino's Kempton performance is the most extraordinary chasing debut I've ever seen.

He was electric. Despite the early hell-for-leather gallop in the following Grade 2 Desert Orchid, Ballyburn and Sir Gino were only 1.71 secs behind at the first ditch but 3.97 secs ahead at three out. Nicky Henderson has a new star who is already worthy of being in the conversation alongside Altior, Shishkin, and Sprinter Sacre, who have taken this race in before the Arkle. Sir Gino warmed to his jumping task but was clever when needed and bold when asked. The pace of this race was relentless, and Nico De Boinville oozed confidence in his mount.

Sir Gino put away last year's Gallagher's Novice Hurdle winner, Ballyburn, with ultimate ease and cantered across the line to the roar of a Kempton crowd to claim his earned seat at the top of the Arkle tree 10/111.91.

Sir Gino is the apple of my eye, but his brilliance on the track is now there for all to see, and he is an Arkle winner in waiting with this performance (on my ratings) of around 164. As for his price, I hope Majborough will keep that honest on the day, and we will target that when it comes to it, but there is every chance he could go off 4/91.44, so people may want to chip away over the coming weeks.

Ballyburn was under experiment to see which trip he should be running over at the Cheltenham Festival, and they got their answers conclusively--the Brown Advisory 3/14.00. He was first on our list for that 3m race, and I firmly expect him to head there and take some stopping. He is possibly one of the better, fair-priced ante-post favourites at this stage.

He lacked the gears and was quickly outpaced by Sir Gino's speed. It will prove a different story ridden with restraint over the more extended three-mile trip, and this race looks to have produced one Cheltenham certainty and another highly likely winner.

Ballyburn won't bump into many better horses than Sir Gino, and he has emerged with plenty of credit. I saw comments regarding Ballyburn's jumping, but it was fine, and he won't be asked to go that pace again.

The Sir Gino (Arkle) and Ballyburn (Browns) double pays 6/17.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

On Sunday, The New Lion roared to favouritism in the Turner's Novice Hurdle betting 10/34.33 following an excellent display to land the Challow Hurdle. This was only a fair time figure for the grade, but he couldn't have done it any easier, and this is the second high 140 performance we have seen this term. Challow Hurdle winners don't have an excellent record at the festival, and the form is questionable to take such a short price, but he is brilliant. Paul Nicholls' Regent's Stroll looked very slow!

At Limerick, Impaire Et Passe won the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices Chase over Jordans and is running to around 148--well below his capabilities over hurdles. He will miss Cheltenham for Punchestown of Aintree.

At Leopardstown, Kaid d'Authie won the Savills Maiden Hurdle over 2m4f. This looks like a chaser with a big, long, gangly stride. He saw this out well and is likely to head down the Turners Novice Hurdle route 12/113.00, but this was only narrowly quicker than the following handicap hurdle, which was won by one, rated 104. Still, he has the size and scope to continue to improve, but he will need to on this evidence.

Dee Capo won the Rising Stars Beginners Chase at Leopardstown. Quai De Bourbon was very disappointing in the third. However, they never got racing until the second last, and the Willie Mullins horse could be one for the National Hunt Chase. Chapeau De Soleil has a bright future, but this was well off the Grade 1 level expected.

Home By The Lee won the Savills Grade 1 Hurdle over three miles and is now 8/19.00 for the Stayers Hurdle, but this is form we know all about. He will have his each-way chance again.

Galopin Des Champs stamped his authority on the Gold Cup division - now 6/52.20 - with an excellent victory in the Grade 1 Savills Chase for a second year. He is incredible at Leopardstown and looks as good as ever. Fact To File had no answers to his powerful front-running display and was pushed to 4/15.00. He may have got a soft lead, but Galopin Des Champs has danced every dance. Fact To File's stamina is under question for a true test at the Gold Cup trip, considering his Brown Advisory win was run slowly.

Market Movers

To come shortly

What's on this week?

A quiet week is ahead as expected following the Christmas action, but Betfair Sponsor Cheltenham Trials Day on January 1st to bring in a brand new year, and Fairyhouse has some good action.

Back Il Est Francais to win the Ryanair @ 12/113.00 1pt

If connections of Il Est Francais are not immediately preparing him for a crack at the Ryanair 12/113.00, then something is seriously wrong. He screams, "Drop me in the distance," and would fit the race perfectly.

The young improver has now twice run into the high 160s in Britain, and while he has never been to Cheltenham, this shouldn't pose an issue. He is a relentless front-runner, and his early pace will certainly see him gain the front-running advantage. Front runners, or those up with the pace, have an excellent record in this race.

Banbridge steals the @ladbrokes King George!

Il Est Francais was fluent until the last but Banbridge capitalised late on pic.twitter.com/OQ2Adu2NJO

-- The Jockey Club (@TheJockeyClub) December 26, 2024

He is six, turning seven, and entirely unexposed at shorter distances. He was a 2m winner in France on his chasing debut. This division lacks depth, and he looks like a very fair price at any double-figure odds.

Fact To File could end up here, although that would leave JP McManus with little chance of landing a Gold Cup. At the same time, Banbridge is favourite and ground-dependent, while Gaelic Warrior is beatable. El Fabiolo and Il Etait Temps have not been seen this term.

There are questions about most of these, and Il Est Francais fits the bill and is worth getting in the book. I hope connections do the right thing and come for this race. It's positive they have even mentioned the Champion Chase, so the drop-in trip is certainly on the agenda.

Now Read: More Horse Racing Tips Here.