Horse Racing Tips: Sire stats and headgear point to a Wednesday 15/2 double

• Dubawi sire stats at Kempton excellent with juveniles

• Cheekpieces and quick ground ideal for Gowran Park tip

• Alan Dudman plays a 15/28.50 multiple today across the UK and Ireland

Kempton - 17:25: Back Elwateen

Kempton starts with at 17:25 with a Fillies' Novice race and trainer Saaed bin Suroor has a newcomer in the Shadwell silks - something I cannot recall ever happening, even from the salad days of the trainer back in the 1990s.

The filly in question is Elwateen - and the angle in here is the stats for Dubawi on the All-Weather.

The star Darley stallion is around 20% win and 42% placed at Kempton and even higher with juveniles with a win rate of 25%.

Her dam Tawkeel was a top notcher - who won a Group 1 in 2020 by 5L and won on debut, and while backing any newcomer is a risk and a guess-up in itself, a starting point of 7f here isn't a negative.

I backed and tipped a Saaed bin Suroor newcomer last week at Pontefract in the column - a race where the market was very much with Midnight Thunder, but he blew the start by 10L and then made up all that lost ground to hit the lead travelling comfortably only to be nailed on the line. The newcomer hit 1.374/11 on that occasion too.

This is the yard's third juvenile runner of the whole year, and while a fairly short price at 11/82.38 today, I don't see her shortening much more.

Gowran Park - 17:40: Back Mount Parnassus @ 5/23.50

Gowran Park is where my interest lies for the second leg, and quite the drift too on Mount Parnassus this morning on the Sportsbook from 7/42.75 out to 5/23.50, and that's now a backable price.

Mount Parnassus has shown plenty of ability so far in five starts for Donnnacha O'Brien and is rated 87 at the moment - which is a good standard and quite a high one for a Gowran Park Maiden.

In fact, the assessor in Ireland has dropped him 1lb after his latest run at Leopardstown - although he raced too hard in front and didn't last home and traded at 1.75/7 in-running.

Cheekpieces are on for the first time, and I see that as a plus to harness that eagerness, and while the draw in 13 isn't ideal, the sharper track here might suit him better as I don't doubt him staying 7f.

The 2yo's run behind Hotazhell at the Curragh in June looks a standout run, as Hotazhell has subsequently won a Group 3. His two below par runs have both been on soft, and with a claimer on board and quick ground, you'd be pretty disappointed if his level of form couldn't take this.

Now read Alan Dudman's latest Antepost Preview ahead of this weekend