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Two big handicaps from Ripon on ITV this Saturday
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All four televised races for Newbury priced on the Sportsbook
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Alan Dudman eyes a 16/117.00 chance this weekend with a best bet at 4/15.00
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Gosden four-year-old stats worrying
Four races from Newbury headline this weekend's ITV coverage and all four are priced up on the Sportsbook - although the opening 13:50 Geoffrey Freer Stakes is perhaps the least attractive in terms of a punting proposition.
The inclusion of Vauban adds some interest and the traders have place him at 11/82.38 ahead of recent Goodwood winner Al Aasy at 7/42.75 - and both have jockey bookings for Saturday with William Buick on Vauban and Jim Crowley on the "double A".
Vauban has to finish off a race, plain and simple. His tame finish at Ascot in the Gold Cup saw him trade at around 6/42.50 in the run in-play, while Al Aasy came through the a smallest gaps to Glorious Goodwood - and no doubt Crowley in-running went from zero to hero. What a ride!
There's nothing to get too excited about the others. Sumo Sam is massive and wouldn't look out of place as a police horse at a football match, but she needs soft ground and the weather is forecast for two rainy days this week.
Arrest was the one-time Derby favourite and won this last year, and he's another who wants some cut in the ground.
John Gosden has been attracting plenty of comment and criticism, and to add my two pennies worth, he's had just nine turf winners with four-year-olds this season - which is way down what it should be a top yard.
The following 14:25 5f Handicap at Newbury is more like it in terms of a punting race with 16 at the time of writing on Tuesday and four of those are three-year-olds.
Cover Point looks a vulnerable favourite here at 3/14.00 on the Sportsbook, as he beat a small field at Musselburgh last time in a race where it paid to sit handy.
The first-time headgear worked well, but his previous efforts this season were underwhelming - although a 2lb rise is minimal.
Myconian looks well treated on his juvenile form of 2023 and he ran his best race of this season last time out at Newmarket in a 0-85. He attracted money that day too despite being sent off 14/1, and the cheekpieces back on Myconian revived him.
Good ground suits him and his profile suggests he'd want the rain to stay away, but it's the mark that is crucial here as he was rated 99 when trying Meydan. It's tumbled down to a more realistic one now, and on juvenile form where he mixed it with the likes of Big Evs at Royal Ascot - he looks of interest each-way at 10/111.00.
Richard Hannon's filly The Big Board won three times last season - including a 5f Class at Ascot from a mark of 92. She's versatile ground-wise, but has become very unpredictable. Her best form is at Ascot and showed a bit more last time, and is another who is well treated.
It is that sort of race.
We'll spin on through time order for the Newbury card and another big field handicap potentially for the 15:00 over 7f with 21 entered on Tuesday morning.
It's another priced up on the Sportsbook and four places on offer for each-way bets on the antepost book.
We've got two previous winners back for more with Spangled Mac 25/126.00 and Documenting 50/151.00 to get their name on the honours board once again.
Documenting is well into the veteran stage of his career at 11 year of age, so it's remarkable he still holds a rating of 94. All colours fade, although it seems the colours of Documenting are fading the slowest.
Spangled Mac's victory 12 months ago came in the first-time headgear and the gallop end-to-end suited him from off the pace as he finished off near side. It's hard to fancy him on two runs this season, but his run in the Scottish Stewards' Cup was better than the bare result as the race didn't suit him with his hold-up style.
A horse with a completely different profile here is James Tate's United Approach - and priced up at 5/16.00 on the Sportsbook, the traders haven't taken too many chances.
He looked a useful two-year-old from a pair of starts - as he caught the eye on debut at Ascot coming from a long way back and bolted up Ayr.
The 4yo was only seen once last term - although it was a winning return under a penalty at Doncaster. He looked impressive there again with his sectionals in the middle part of the race good.
On the time theme again, the Newbury 6f Handicap that Lethal Levi won in May broke the track record by a narrow margin and earned an A++ sectional upgrade on the At The Races site with time tools. United Approach was returning after a near-400 day absence and the race didn't suit him in terms of coming from off the pace.
Lethal Levi was well handicapped from 91 and made the running, but on that run, I wouldn't dismiss United Approach's chances of getting 7f with more match sharpness.
Indeed, he ran at Newcastle over 7f last time and kept on well enough despite being a little keen. He is bred for this sort of trip and he's one I want to back this Saturday.
Poet Master is towards the head of the betting for the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at 15:35, and the final race from Newbury on the ITV this Saturday, and he's the one I was most drawn too at 4s on the Sportsbook as I am still to be convinced about Lake Forest who is the same price.
He looked so good last time in winning the Group 2 Minstrel Stakes in Ireland at the Curragh, and I revisited the race this morning to watch and it was quite a sight. Slightly different tactics were used as he took a lead, but he ran all over the field and 2f to go quickened up sharply.
The 4yo is such a strong traveller, he looks capable of cutting at at Group 1 level, and Karl Burke seems to have an endless supply of quality Sheikh Obaid horses, in fact I'd love to know just how many he has.
Burke said of the Curragh win: "Really impressive, he's a lovely horse. He had a few little issue, a sore back etc, so he'd had a bit of treatment since his last run and that's obviously worked the oracle."
He missed the Lennox Stakes but this looks a good spot at Newbury for the weekend, and while he carries a penalty, the 4/15.00 appeals greatly, in fact I make him the best bet of the weekend.
Two of the big handicaps from Ripon have found their way onto the ITV cameras too, and while the track eschewed the chance to be a Premierised (is there such a word?) meeting, we have two big fields for the Silver Trophy and Great St Wilfrid races with 29 and 30 entered at the time of writing.
Obviously the draw comes into play here and it might be a case of waiting for the final decs.
A couple interest me at big prices - notably Origintrail with Jo Mason already booked for Ben Haslam. I am such a fan of Mason and am staggered the trainers down south don't use her. She showcased her skills at the Shergar Cup meeting just gone, and was only denied by a whisker by Hayley Turner on New Image with a fine ride in defeat.
Mason is enjoying a season's best tally with 52 winners and when Haslam uses her, they are 5-14 together at an impressive 35%.
Indeed, crunching the numbers further, her record over 6f at Ripon is decent too with 16% win and 44% placed.
Origintrail is at 16/117.00, and while she hasn't won for a while, she has a consistent record at Ripon and seems to be the track she likes the best and with four places on the Sportsbook, she looks each-way material after a good run last time in Yorkshire.
Tim Easterby has about a million entries (okay, seven) with Havana Pursuit, Glendown and Spirit Of Applause all Ripon winners previously, but sorting out his runners at this stage is not an easy task.
The 14/115.00 on Showtime Mahomes is worth a second look with the four places, as I don't think he's badly handicapped at all and his trainer Grant Tuer won the Great St Wilfrid last term.
His last win came off 70 and off 67 can threaten again, especially as he could suit a strongly-run 6f as he has winning form over 7f.
He's a hold-up performer who hasn't always gone through with his finishing effort and the draw could be key as he would like to be where the pace will be. Tuer is a bit quiet at the moment, though with just 1-19 at 5% in the last two weeks, but Showtime Mahomes hasn't been running too badly this term.
Will the veterans have a big say in the Great St Wilfrid?
The Great St Wilfrid looks ultra-fiendish with the market leader chalked up at 8/19.00 on the antepost book with some real old Saturday favourites here - including good old Summerghand and fellow veteran Dakota Gold.
Summerghand was just touched off in last year's renewal in a race where they split into two groups and the first two home were in the far side posse drawn in six and seven. Indeed, trap six seems a good spot in the race as the last two winners have been housed there.
Summerghand is one of the market leaders at 8s, while 2019 winner Dakota Gold is twice the price at 20/121.00.
One at this early stage for the race is Secret Guest - a 14/115.00 poke for the Great St Wilfrid, and he's one that needs a fast run 6f to produce his best.
He shaped well just a few days ago at Redcar behind Makanah (a horse I must have backed 10 times without winning). Secret Guest returned after wind surgery and a break there, and with him not so reliant on ground as soft and good to firm comes alike, he's another with a hope of getting a draw where all the speed is.
Plus, Andrew Breslin can claim 3lb and is booked up (as of Tuesday), and these claims can be worth their weight in gold in these big handicaps.
It's not quite enough for a bet at the moment, as I also want to see Easterby's plans for the race.