Horse Racing Tips: Lavelle and Russell to hit the target in Monday 17/1 double

Trainer Emma Lavelle has shown a healthy profit at Kempton in the last five seasons

Alan Dudman picks out a handicap debut selection and a novice over fences for the first time in Monday's [17/1] double...

  • Muskoka should be happier over 2m4f

  • Russell filly could be in lightly off 101

  • Alan Dudman has a 17/118.00 multiple for Monday at Kempton and Carlisle


Kempton - 13:15: Back Muskoka @ 9/43.25

Trainer Emma Lavelle has some good numbers at Kempton and is already 1-2 this season and backing her horses to a level stakes of a point would have returned +69.50 at 14% from her 71 runners in the past five seasons and her chase debutant Muskoka gets the nod early on at Kempton.

He wouldn't have been an obvious one from a hurdling effort last November at Huntington where he finished a well beaten second, but the nerves were jangling there as he nearly ran out when ducking to his left at the final hurdle.

A positive to glean from that was that he was staying on and he wasn't quick enough to deal with the front-runner Case No Mento, but the ground was quick there with Timeform adding (good to firm), so I don't think the decent surface today at Kempton should be a negative.

His last effort in the summer was at Uttoxeter 134 days ago and while beaten by Breaking Waves who had dropped to a good mark, he was travelling just as well on the inner and was matched in-running at 6/42.50. I give him another chance at the trip certainly and it will be interesting to see how he fares over fences.


Carlisle - 13:30: Back She's Notjoeking @ 9/25.50

A celebratory time up at Kinross no doubt with Lucinda Russell bringing up her 1000th career winner recently and she's another trying something new today with her first run in a handicap with She's Notjoeking. Russell will know her family well too having trained the dam.

It looks a lean mark at 101 for the selection and that underrates her on her bumper efforts as she was a tidy winner on her debut at Newcastle last winter when she scored by 2L.

She also has some Hexham form, something I like as her win was in heavy over 2m so it looks an obvious and wise move to go up to 2m4f today.

She's clearly better than her comeback run at Hexham 30 days ago, and I've taken the view that quite a few of the Russell runners have needed their first run and this race looks a good spot in terms of the opposition plus there's the claim of the excellent Patrick Wadge.

As a daughter of Milan, 2m4f looks a big positive and she usually races up with the pace.


Now read more tips and previews for Monday here!


Recommended bets

Back Muskoka in the 13:15 at Kempton 0.5pt @ 9/43.25

Back She's Notjoeking in the 13:30 at Carlisle 0.5pt @ 9/25.50

You can back Alan's Sportsbook double on Monday 0.5pt @ 17/118.00

ALAN DUDMAN'S P AND L SINCE MULTIPLES COLUMN INCEPTION

Multiples 2021 to present: +55.27pts

2021 to present Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to 1pt stake (0.5pt EW) settled at BSP: +192.94pts

Alan Dudman

Alan is a long term member of the Betting.Betfair team and has been a broadcaster and writer for over 20 years.

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