- Testing ground at Nottingham for Tarhib
- Gary Moore uses cheekpieces tonight
- Al Dudman is backing a 49/1 Sportsbook double on Wednesday across Nottingham and Kempton
Tarhib will have her ground at Nottingham
Back Tarhib @ 6.05/1 in the 14:10 at Nottingham
Tuesday's two selections highlighted how drifters can outperform a well-backed favourite.
I really fancied Young Butler yesterday, and my basis was that with rain at Chepstow and easier ground, he would have his conditions. It was evident there was more in the surface than soft early on the card, and in the race itself, Young Butler appeared in trouble after about five seconds and hated every minute of it. Trying to predict ground can be a futile task.
Bay Breeze however doubled in price and was sent off a BSP of 12.011/1 and finished a decent second. Young Butler was at one stage 6/4, so the market got both spectacularly wrong, but never be afraid once your horse drifts. It was a case of the old adage yesterday; sometimes you are the pigeon, sometimes you are the statue.
I've tipped and backed Tarhib a couple of times this term - one a win on soft, and one a defeat when not soft, the fact the ground will be testing at Nottingham means at least she'll get her favoured ground at last and at 5/1, she is more than a little tempting today.
The 14:10 5f Handicap could be something of a first for a while, as it's a handicap open to 2yos against elders and it's something that hasn't been seen for a while.
She scored at Yarmouth in September fairly easily in 0-90 company, although times suggested the ground was more good to soft, but Jim Crowley said she enjoyed a bit of ease in the ground. Soon after she went to Newmarket finishing third in a hot 0-105 race on unsuitable quicker going.
Another go in 0-105 company came at Ascot last time, finishing second over 5f and I like the angle of her remaining at the minimum trip as she's a smooth traveller who does stay 6f.
The Yarmouth victory was a good performance on the clock with two early sub 11 second sectionals and a race finish speed of 99%.
Ascot last time they appeared to go too hard early, which is not the best thing to do with a stiff finish - and a finish that often finds out horses. She's more of a bridle horse rather than a scrapper.
Down in class keeps her of interest.
Can we trust Moonis?
Back Moonis @ 7.06/1 in the 20:00 at Kempton
Gary Moore's Moonis is an interesting runner with a back story to match as he was trained by Roger Varian and owned by Shadwell with an illustrious sister in Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares winner Eshaada.
His first two runs on the All-Weather at the start of 2022 were encouraging, and both unlucky. He was very wide on debut at Kempton, but travelled well at Newcastle in March when upped to 1m2f but looked a bit clueless at the end. However, his days were numbered with Varian and he made the 45,000 move to Moore.
He's a big strapping sort, whose legs seemed to get in his way at Windsor last time as he was gangly, but not without ability. He completely missed the break and met a wall of horses continually down the straight, and wanting to go right rather than left didn't help. It was far from the best ride I have ever seen either.
The 3yo could turn out to be useless, but I am hoping there's something there from 68. With cheekpieces on for the first time, Moore has a 14% win record with the headgear and 27% placed - both higher at Kempton than all of the AW tracks together.
Do check out Daryl Carter's Betting Masterclass published this week with an in-depth look how to treat trainer form - both hot and cold.
September/October singles winners:
Hoganville 3/1 Won
Sole Pretender 9/1 Placed R4
Maximilian Evens Won
Another Odyssey 5/4 Won
Magnetic North 16/1 Placed
Mr Alan 4/1 Won
Bright Diamond 13/2 Placed
Hurtle 2/1 Won
Good Impression 3/1 Won
Soft Whisper 2/1 Won
Enduring 9/1 Placed
Noble Dynasty 3/1 Won
Nostrum 2/1 Won
Kaif 15/8 Won
Only Money 2/1 Won
Ah La Francaise 5/2 Won
Exoplanet 5/1 Won
Courage Mon Ami 5/1 Won
City Walk 9/4 Won
Shaara 6/1 Won
Tarhib 5/4 Won
City Vaults 5/2 Won
Sea Stone 9/1 Won
Funny Story 5/2 Won
New Kingdom 8/1 Won
Prakasa 6/4 Won
Well Educated 9/4 Won
Kingori 10/11 Won
Dynamic Kate 10/11 Won
First View 9/2 Won
Mostahdaf 9/2 Won
Leopold's Rock 4/5 Won
High Velocity 9/2 Won
Back On Springs 5/4 Won