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Two interesting novice races are under the microscope today
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Derby entrant Saint George a decent price at 6/1 for debut
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Today's two Kempton selections pay out 37/1 on the Sportsbook multiple
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Son of Roaring Lion can make an impact on debut for Balding
Back Saint George @ 7.06/1 in the 16:30 at Kempton
Scanning the All-Weather cards, Andrew Balding has a trio of interesting newcomers to unleash today, and all at decent prices which looks a tad more exciting from a 'potential angle' against the low-grade handicaps.
The stable are a bit quiet, but then they don't have a lot of winter runners anyway so I wouldn't read too much into the 0-12 record in the last two weeks.
First up is the son of Roaring Lion with Saint George running for the first time in his career in the 16:30 1m Novice Stakes. And against Postman's Park 2.01/1, I'd rather back him at 6/1.
His dam Lady Dragon has produced three horses, with two winning as juveniles and one on debut. All three of her offspring were with Ralph Beckett and this is the first time Andrew Balding has one.
The sire Roaring has a good record with his All-Weather runners, with an 18% win and 37% placed for all tracks, although the win rate creeps up to 21% for 1m races.
In the last five seasons, Balding has introduced 40 winning 2yos at 15%.
Of course backing any debutant comes with risks attached as he could well need this, but we do get 6/1 against a horse who has had a run and we saw with the Dubawi newcomer tipped in the column recently for Wolverhampton, the stats did back up a good run, and the selection bolted up.
Filly in receipt of weight can overcome a poor draw in 12
Back Gentle @ 5.59/2 in the 17:30 at Kempton
The 17:30 over 7f is a bit trickier with the presence of a Simon and Ed Crisford 5/4 favourite Al Aali, and that stable haven't missed much recently with their well-backed runners in these sort of races and they've won with two of their last three 2yos, but the price does nothing for me at 5/4 after two runs.
Gentle at 15/4 is a filly in receipt of weight here from the market leader and with a Sea The Stars dam, 7f is a fair enough starting point. She wears a hood for debut and is drawn out wide in 12, and the latter she'll need to overcome.
But it's the sire No Nay Never that's turning into something of a hot piece of property these days, and he enjoyed a fine season as a stallion with six Group-race winning 2yos in 2022.
No Nay Never has similar record to Roaring Lion in terms of winners at Kempton. His numbers are 16% win and 31% placed at the track, and it's slightly higher at 33% placed over 7f.
The dam's two half-sisters both won on their 2yo debuts in France too.
Look out too for Balding's Juddmonte newcomer Copy Artist in the 14:25 at Lingfield today. She might just need a trip further down the line and the 7f could be a bit sharp at Lingfield, especially with two Charlie Appleby 2yos in the race. Watch her scoot in now!
December winners:
Harb 7/2 Won
Hiddenvalley Lake 5/2 Won
Tarjamah 5/2 Won
Manaafith 7/4 Won
Coolbane Boy 2/1 Won
Recommended bets
Back Saint George @ 7.06/1 in the 16:30 at KemptonBack Gentle @ 5.59/2 in the 17:30 at Kempton
Back Saint George and Gentle in a Sportsbook multiple that pays around 38.037/1 0.5ptALAN DUDMAN'S P & L
Multiples 2021 to present: +31.46pts
Bets Of Day 2016 to 2021: +25.10pts
Irish Racing Tips 2020 to 2021: +21.63pts