Sea The Stars' record worth following
Back Alnilam @ 4.3100/30 in the 16:40 at Kempton
City Walk winning easily at Chelmsford for yesterday's Daily Racing Multiple column far eclipsed the rather lugubrious effort of Appointed One, who didn't fire at all and even finished behind a horse that was 150/1. The double bid thwarted, but the 9/4 win of City Walk means it's 19 single winners in 18 days.
Undeterred by Appointed One's flop, Charlie Appleby again features for the first selection with Alnilam, a son of Sea The Stars making his debut today.
I don't mind backing a newcomer at all, and with a Sea The Stars, you know what you are getting. He'll stay further and the 1m this afternoon is a bare minimum, but the sire has a 21% win record over 1m at Kempton and 36% placed. Although rather surprisingly that number is only 15% at 1m4f.
The trainer is 20-62 at 32% with his 3yo runners on the AW this term.
On pedigree, his dam Awareness is a full sister to Pathfork - a horse who rattled off a hat-trick of juvenile wins from debut to National Stakes in Ireland.
In opposition; Regal Rambler finished second last time at Chelmsford, a race that produced a poor time figure. While Melfet was green but ran well on his debut last December, but has been off since then.
Stats point to big run from Gosden debutant
Back Courage Mon Ami @ 6.05/1 in the 17:10 at Kempton
An unusual (for some) tactic today in backing a pair of newcomers, but the stats of sire Frankel over 1m4f at Kempton are so strong, it's enough to persuade me to go with Courage Mon Ami.
The super sire has a 17% win-rate at Kempton over all distances, but crucially he is 15-49 at a massive 31% and placed at 49%, meaning the sire's runners find double the improvement given a trip. A crude way of measuring perhaps, but they gallop so well.
The dam Crimson Ribbon has produced three horses, whom all won races at 1m and 1m4f rated 90 and 102.
It's a fine Anthony Oppenheimer family and John Gosden has a fantastic 33% strike-rate at Kempton with 34 wins from 103 over 1m4f.
And the name sounds something like a Derek Trotter phrase, or a Voltaire novel. Mr Oppenheimer might be a fan of both, although I suspect more the latter.
August/September singles winners:
City Walk 9/4 Won
Shaara 6/1 Won
Tarhib 5/4 Won
City Vaults 5/2 Won
Sea Stone 9/1 Won
Funny Story 5/2 Won
New Kingdom 8/1 Won
Prakasa 6/4 Won
Well Educated 9/4 Won
Kingori 10/11 Won
Dynamic Kate 10/11 Won
First View 9/2 Won
Mostahdaf 9/2 Won
Leopold's Rock 4/5 Won
High Velocity 9/2 Won
Back On Springs 5/4 Won
Rapid Flight 2/1 Won
Marching Army 10/1 Won
Vino Victrix 7/1 Win and Place
Larry Looby 2/1 Won
Autumn Festival 4/5 Won
Alma Libre 7/1 Placed
Queen Fleur 17/2 DH Win and Place
Prince Of Pillo 5/2 Won
Seeking Gold 5/4 Won
See The Sea 5/1 Won
Tarrabb 5/2 Won
Anmaat 9/2 Won
Tyrone's Poppy 11/4 Won
Recommended bets
Back Alnilam @ 4.3100/30 in the 16:40 at Kempton
ALAN DUDMAN'S P & L
Multiples 2021 to present: +60.04pts
Bets Of Day 2016 to 2021: +25.10pts
Irish Racing Tips 2020 to 2021: +21.63pts