Cheltenham Tips for Wednesday: Tony Calvin's best bets on Day 2

• 7/18.00 Doddie looks Great investment in the Coral

• 18/119.00 Hardy can thrive on Cheltenham debut

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Rachael Blackmore Superboost

Rachael has a solid each-way chance on Monty's Star in the Brown Advisory at 14:10 today, and if you fancy the horse to finish in the top three then you can back it at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00, from 4/91.44.

Too many people are afraid of backing and tipping losers, and are so keen to get on the board at Cheltenham that they play it too safe and veer towards the top end of the market to break their Festival duck early.

And, in doing so, they probably have too many bets.

And too many bad ones.

That is understandable, as the pressure can mount quickly if the losers pile up - everyone loves to point to any win, while happily ignoring the losers - but I just can't adopt that safety-first strategy.

I'll continue to focus on bigger prices in the main, take the inevitable losing runs, and be very selective if doing so.

That said, I was so grumpy last year, after just one winner on the first three days, that I refused to go down the boozer on Gold Cup day, as is customary in this neck of the woods.

I was a bit of a self-indulgent arse, in fact.

It all worked out well enough on the day itself thanks to Faivoir (I am still getting over that bad defeat at Sandown on Saturday, but at least Harry Skelton held his hands up afterwards) and you have to stick to your script.

13:30 - Gallagher Novices' Hurdle - No bet

My script certainly does not include backing Ballyburn at 1/21.50 in Wednesday's opener at 13:30, a race that has cut up massively from 24 at the five-day stage to just eight.

I get that he could be a class apart and blow these away, so I would simply advocate ignoring him for betting purposes rather than actively laying him.

The horse I have had my eye on for this, for the past week or so, is Jingko Blue.

In an ideal world, I would have liked to have filed this copy after seeing how the Nicky Henderson runners fared on the opening day - especially as I am tipping two of his on Wednesday - but that wasn't an option.

Not ideal, but we are where we are.

But, for once shortening prices made my mind up for me and hopefully worked in my favour.

I was all set to tip him at 20s each-way, and flag up the 7s without the favourite, but they were trimmed to 14s and 5s just before 2pm on Monday.

With 16/117.00 and 13/27.50 available elsewhere, I had little opportunity but to pull the tips. Mind you, the 20s and 18s in the outright market was taken just before this went live, so his price is going one way at the moment.

This is the case for him if he drifts back out, though.

Now, it may seem fanciful to expect Jingko Blue to turn the favourite over, given his handicap win came off 124 last time, while Ballyburn won his Grade 1 by seven lengths.

However, he was clearly very impressive there in winning what is looking like a strong 0-125 - the handicapper upped him 16lb to a mark of 140 - and I love horses that finish as strongly as he did up that punishing Sandown hill.

The time was very good and the form has worked out too, with subsequent wins for the second and fifth (the third and fourth haven't run since).

And, while he has 17lb to find with Ballyburn on official figures (though Timeform actually have him as their second top-rated in here, which surprised me), we are dealing with a horse having just his fourth start over hurdles here.

I suppose one of the potential upsides of not having an interest at this stage is waiting to see if the Non-Runner departments of bookmakers succeed in getting a withdrawal in this dead-eight.

14:10 - Brown Advisory: No bet

Talking of scurrilous lies, it is almost certainly not true, but at last week's Cheltenham Preview in Dublin I passed on the gossip that Fact To File is going for the 3m+ Brown Advisory at 14:10 because JP has had a lump on him for the race, rather than Willie Mullins necessarily wanting to go there with a horse with his stamina to prove.

I'd rather be against than with him at 10/111.91, but I stuck up Sandor Clegane at 20s each-way, three places, last week and I'd be hopeful he can finish in the first three.

But, with the field cutting up to just six, the each-way angle has now sailed into the sunset and his Sportsbook price of 16/117.00 - though a bit bigger on the Betfair Exchange, obviously - is not that appealing win-only.

But a win wouldn't surprise me, as he was just over a length behind Paul Nicholls' Stay Away Fay in the Albert Bartlett last season and he shaped much better than the bare form suggests behind Embassy Gardens last time.

I'll probably chuck a few quid at him at 20s+ on the Exchange, for what it is worth, even if Timeform have him with 19lb to find with the favourite.

14:50 - Coral Cup: Back Doddiethegreat

None of the handicaps on Day Two have filled. We are one shy in the Coral Cup at 14:50, and three off a full field in the Grand Annual at 16:50.

I am backing two each-way in the Coral Cup, and Doddiethegreat looks a very good investment at 7/18.00, six places, with the Sportsbook, even with the Hendo form stipulation.

He looked very unlikely to get into the race last week but he is a huge player now.

Unbeaten in two bumper starts, he comes in here after just four outings over hurdles, and among those was a second to the Imperial Cup winner Go Dante here in December and a staying-on fourth on heavy ground over 2m in the Betfair Hurdle last time. That's tasty handicap form.

The step back up in trip should suit this 2m5f winner, and I'd be surprised and disappointed if he doesn't rate a fair bit higher than 132 under these conditions.

Again, the stable form worries me at this stage - it has to - but I'd have him as favourite in here.

Personally, I am going to have half my intended stake on him at this stage, and then press up once I have seen the Tuesday action and been suitably satisfied, even if I have to take shorter odds.

14:50 - Coral Cup: Back Supreme Gift*

*since been declared a non-runner

The second tip is Supreme Gift at 66/167.00 each-way, six places.

His first four starts of the campaign were over fences, winning once at Ascot, but he ran a cracker when sent back over hurdles in a first-time visor over an extended 2m7f at the same track recently, finishing second to an in-form improver.

A 3lb rise was fair for that career-best effort, he has course form, handles mud, and the 66s is simply too big to ignore with the extra places.

Harry Cobden is not a bad booking either, and he is four from 18 for the yard, with five of the 14 losers finishing either second or third.

Even the bottom price of 40s out there would interest me, with the six places.

15:30 - Champion Chase: No bet

I put up Captain Guinness at 8/19.00 each-way 1,2 without El Fabiolo in the Champions Chase as my best ante-post bet at last week's Festival Preview (watch it below).

As I said earlier, these types of markets are not the most solid or lasting from a betting perspective, which is why I also said 20s each-way in the main market was a fair alternative, too (he is 16s now there in another worrying dead-eight).

All have stood their ground from the five-day stage, and the 8s Without El Fabiolo is now 11/26.50, so I will sit tight for now. It's still a fair price, but nothing more.

However, the horse is actually 13/53.60 without the top two in the betting with the Sportsbook, and I certainly would not put you off at that price. I think Edwardstone has blow-out potential from the front (please find headgear stats and pace maps below).

16:50 - Grand Annual: Back Hardy Du Seuil

I am not going to waste my time or yours by insulting you with any comments or thoughts on the Cross Country at 16:10 or the bumper at 17:30.

Neither discipline interests me or, more importantly, gets me close to risking my hard-earned (not) cash, so that leaves the Grand Annual at 16:50.

I'll cut straight to the chase here; I was going to stick up Hardy Du Seuil at 25/126.00 each-way, five places, with the Sportsbook. And then he was cut to 18s at 2:30pm on Monday.

However, there seems to be a general move for him on Monday afternoon, so I am going to stay with him at 18s.

He has no Cheltenham experience, which is an obvious worry, but I thought he shaped plenty well enough from off the pace at Sandown last time.

That was his first start over fences since April 2022, and he also wasn't wearing the cheekpieces he had worn for his two, good previous starts over hurdles, and that headgear is back on here.

He is a 7yo who was rated 3lb higher in his novice chase days back in the 2021-22 season and the ground should be fine for him. If you can win on soft over hurdles at Sandown, this should be a breeze.

He probably needs to brush up his jumping but even the revised 18s looks a touch too big to me.

I will definitely give you an update on this column on Tuesday afternoon, and hopefully add more bets after seeing the early Cheltenham action.

I pulled the Jingko Blue selection, and Hardy Du Seuil nearly followed suit, too.

Good luck.

Update - 10am Tuesday

The rain arrived, pretty much as expected on Tuesday, with 8.4mm having landed as I write this - the Monday afternoon forecasts predicted over 7mm - and the official going is currently soft, heavy in places. Actually, the clerk of the course says they have had 11mm, and not 8.4mm (as per the rain gauge, which doesn't appear to be accurate).

Everyone is surely working on the basis of heavy ground though. The updated going stick reading at 9am was 3.7 (from 5.6 at 12.30pm on Saturday).

To my mind, nothing much has changed since I did the above column on Monday afternoon.

Well, apart from the fact that Henry Daly took my 66s selection Supreme Gift out of the Coral Cup at 8.22am.

But no damage, as it is non runner money back with Betfair for every race at Cheltenham.

I was going to provide this update after watching the opening races on Tuesday. But, on reflection, I thought it would be an over-reaction to read too much into a few performances. And, anyway, it may be wise to wait until after racing to hold stronger opinions, to see what the Time Bandits make of the going.

So I am going early, and suggest you back Jingko Blue at 5/16.00 without Ballyburn with the Sportsbook now.

I appreciate these Without markets move very quickly, to little money, but that's a fair bet to have for small stakes. There is some 11/26.50 in the wider marketplace, with my Mr Honest hat on.

As I said above, when making the full case for him, Timeform do have him as their second top-rated in the race behind the favourite.

Sandor Clegane remains a fair price at the current 19.018/1 on the Exchange in the Brown Advisory, and obviously I myself continue to be totally apathetic towards the Cross Country race (there is an 8am inspection on Wednesday to see if it can go ahead - due to the rain, not lack of interest) and the Champion Bumper.

I am happy to rely solely on just Doddiethegreat in the Coral Cup in the absence of Supreme Gift. Hopefully, Hendo horses fire this afternoon.

The money has continued to come for Hardy Du Seuil in the Grand Annual, and he has surely hit his price now at 15.014/1 win-only on the Exchange and 12/113.00 with the Sportsbook.

Another quiet betting day, then.

Good luck.

First-time headgear stats for Wednesday at Cheltenham

Nicholls - cheekpieces (21 from 72 since 2016)

Padraig Butler - cheekpieces (0 from 1 but that was a 20/1 second in 2022; Fons Vivus at Tra-more)

Brassil - cheekpieces (0 from 2 since 2016; though one was Panda Boy when an excellent second in December at Leopardstown)

Elliott - blinkers (20 from 152 since 2009)

John McConnell - visor (0 from 6 since 2020)

Cromwell - pieces (10 from 72 since 2016)

Pauling - visor (1 from 5 since 2014)

Mullins - hood (26 from 152 since 2013)

Note: Franciscan Rock runs in a tongue-tie/cheekpieces combo for the first time, having run in both headgears separately before.

Pace Maps

Probable/possible forward-goers (manually done, not autogenerated)

Gallagher: Ile Atlantique, Mercurey

Brown Advisory: American Mike?, Sandor Clegane?, Stay Away Fay

Coral Cup: Maxxum, Beacon Edge?, Finest Evermore, Jigoro, Sa Majeste, Benson?, Shanbally Kid?,

Champion Chase: Edwardstone, Elixir Du Nutz, Gentleman De Mee

Cross Country: Don't care in truth but Coko Beach, Didero Vallis, Foxy Jacks, Minella Indo, Streets Of Doyen for the Cheese Wedge Lovers

Grand Annual: Dancing On My Own, Maskada, Calico, Harper's Brook, Unexpected Party, Gemirande, Hardy Du Seuil,

Bumper: Definitely don't care - and not enough information anyway with so little evidence to go on.

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