Cheltenham Festival Tips: Daryl Carter's 2025 Champion Chase ante-post big race verdict

• The ground will play a big part in the betting markets

• Jonbon can finally gain a deserved Cheltenham victory

• Blood Destiny is one to consider at a price

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Ground conditions to play a big part in Champion Chase

There are plenty of angles to consider for punters when tackling the Champion Chase, and the most significant of those may be the on-the-day ground conditions. That's difficult to predict at this stage, but it will ripple the market.

For example, Willie Mullins pair Energumene 8/19.00 and Gaelic Warrior 13/27.50 would have their chances significantly enhanced with any rain, while Marine Nationale 9/110.00 and Solness 9/110.00 would see theirs decrease.

The going description will determine the value of the current ante-post prices, so it is tough to get involved at these prices and consider this race a betting medium.

Jonbon will be knocked, but he would be a worthy winner

However, if the race were run tomorrow on good to soft ground, it would be difficult to get away from the favourite, Jonbon, who has done little wrong in his career and is arguably in career-best form this season when others are far from it.

He has been remarkably consistent at the top level, a winner of 12/14 chase starts and never out of the first two in his entire career. The stick most will use to beat Jonbon is his Cheltenham record, but when looking at his form figures, which read 12122, any other horse in training would be praised for such outstanding figures at Prestbury Park.

Jonbon has found arguably the most outstanding hurdler of a generation in Constitution Hill and the outstanding Novice Chaser in El Fabiolo too good. At the same time, his defeat at the hands of Elixir De Nutz in January last year is easily forgivable, considering his shuddering error. Jonbon should have been upgraded considerably for his trial day runner-up effort to Elixir De Nutz.

Jonbon's relentless galloping, turn of foot, and career-best RPR ratings this season mark him down as the one to beat, and those knocking his Cheltenham record do so with few other stones to throw, and it's not like improving horses are lining up to take him on.

Who can possibly beat Jonbon?

According to a recent Willie Mullins stable tour, Gaelic Warrior could end up in the Ryanair, and that would be the correct decision. The seven-year-old won a weak Arkle last year on ground that was changed to heavy following that race. It was a staying performance rather than a speedy one, and he arrives on the back of RPR ratings more than 20lb inferior to Jonbon's latest, and he was fitted with a tongue-tie for the first time at the Dublin Racing Festival.

He is another with a good record at Cheltenham, and those attempting to be clever will offer Leopardstown's track as a plausible excuse for him to bounce back. That may be a genuine reason to see him be competitive at the Cheltenham Festival, but he could only come into consideration for the Champion Chase if the course was plagued with rain on the run-up to the race.

Should the rain arrive, then 11-year-old Energumene would come into the reckoning, but following a defeat to Jonbon in the Clarence House at Ascot, it isn't easy to see this old-timer re-capture the excellence of his youth.

El Fabiolo has been touted for the Ryanair, but his jumping has gone a little wayward in recent starts, getting no further than the second at the DRF. He has abundant talent if granted a clear round, and he is not one to write off entirely should his first fall at Leopardstown make a man of him.

There are negatives to the remainder of this market. Il Est Francais is the most interesting possible for this race. He showed an abundance of speed to kick away from the King George field from the off and dominate the race. Still, he outpaced three milers; this time, he will have much quicker horses chasing his tail. He will certainly have competition for the lead and he will be asked to go quicker for longer than he ever has.

Those at bigger prices have plenty to find, but Blood Destiny is the most interesting 40/141.00. He is crying out for a move back to 2m, and he jumps impeccably well. If he could put behind him an idiotic Juvenile Hurdle performance from two years ago at this venue, then he could be a live outsider. His form needs improving but he wants to go left-handed and 2m. He is still unexposed and exciting!

Champion Chase verdict

For now, Jonbon will get the Champion Chase verdict, and perhaps he will be a bridesmaid no more and gain a just-deserved Cheltenham Festival victory. Those Supreme backers from the past can gain deserved compensation.

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