Cheltenham Festival Focus: He could win an Arkle, Turners or a Browns, he is that good

With just five weeks to go, the Cheltenham picture looks ever more apparent, and this weekend's Dublin Racing Festival has cleared some murky waters.

Fourteen 2021 Cheltenham Festival winners came from last seasons Dublin Racing Festival, and it provides the most form reliable clues to winners in March.

Just the one selection to add to our list this week, but I have handicappers sitting in the palm of my hand that I want to get on our list, so it will likely be two a week from next Sunday.

Stattler the new National Hunt Chase 3/1 fav

Stattler improved on all known form at Naas last Sunday in the Racecourse Business Club Novice Chase (Grade 3) when running out a narrow winner over Farouk D'alene and 2021 Albert Bartlett winner Vaniliier.

It was a good performance from Willie Mullins' runner. He was surprisingly short in the market even with long-term National Hunt Chase ante-post favourite Run Wild Fred in the contest before his withdrawal (due to high temperature).

Stattler, a horse that looked a non-stayer last term over hurdles, saw out the finish stronger than his rival - who admittedly has looked as though 3m is his very limit of stamina - and he now looks the right favourite for the National Hunt Chase at 3/1 in March.

He is not one I am rushing to back, though.

On Monday at Punchestown Kilcruit bounced back with a devilish display in a good time figure. He shed his Maiden tag with a bloodless victory in a first time tongue-tie when winning by 21 lengths. I was impressed by this performance. He looks a big player in the Supreme Novice Hurdle, for which he is now an over-priced 14/1 chance.

He is a likely market shortener on the day, but the poor record of seven-year-olds still puts me off.

At the same venue, Classic Getaway scrambled home in a poor contest to win at the second time of asking over hurdles and is now a 12/1 chance for the intended target of the Albert Barlett. I was hoping for a more impressive performance from him, but he lacked that finishing spark that we all wanted to see, and he looks like one that will come into his own over fences and needs more time. It's like the price tag that will force him to the festival, but there will be more battle-hardened rivals.

Wherever he goes, whatever he does, I want to be with State Man

I was blown away with the performance of State Man for Willie Mullins at Limerick on Tuesday, and although it was not one of note on the clock or in the form book, visually, I thought it was excellent.

The fact that he hasn't clocked a fancy time on this occasion or hasn't beaten a great deal may see him fly under the radar for March. He may not have the experience for a Ballymore, but with his RPR rating of 132, he is likely to get a handicap mark in the high 120's to low 130's, and that would make him an attractive proposition for something like the Martin Pipe for which he is currently a 12/1 chance. He is also 12/1 for the County Hurdle, which would see him scrape in at the bottom of the weights if he is lucky.

He has only had three career runs, but he looked promising on debut for Willie Mullins before falling in a race that clocked a good time figure and one I have little doubt he would have won if staying on his feet.

We could take a chance a play at 12/1 for the Martin Pipe, but I want to wait, and if that means taking a reduced price, so be it.

Super Saturday in Ireland

Minella Cocooner won the opening contest of the Dublin Racing Festival with a determined front running performance to book his place in the Ballymore, for which he is now an 8/1 chance. Willie Mullins suggested after the race that there was no need to go up in trip, so this looks like the obvious target.

In the last ten years, winners of this race have failed to go on to win the Ballymore Novice Hurdle, finishing 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 7th. Still, it was an excellent front running effort, and he is firmly on the upgrade without looking like a typical stand-out candidate. This race is still up in the air for me at the moment, but hopefully, our patience will be rewarded.

Bad news, though, our early column selection Eric Bloodaxe wanted for speed, and he will not be winning the Albert Bartlett, unfortunately.

No hedge needed as Vauban is a special talent

Our ante-post selection Vauban at 11.010/1 got the job done in style as he quickened up smartly to land the Spring Juvenile Hurdle comfortably.

He was a little keen early on and always shaped like he wanted to go a stride quicker when held up behind the leaders. I must admit watching the race, I wasn't entirely happy with his position on the outside of the field, and he made one or two mistakes at his hurdles, but it was never going to be enough to stop him in hindsight.

This was a decisive performance from the now twice raced Juvenile, and there is undoubtedly more improvement to come from him once he learns to settle. His gear change was effortless around the home bend, and he quickly got to the front and showed an excellent attitude to the line.

If we are to be critical, you could say that he jumps slightly to the right, but other than that, there was plenty to get excited about on this evidence.

His splits on the clock were good, and his overall time of 4m2secs reads well compared to the bumper run on the card of 3m59secs. Taking a closing time figure from the cross path to the line, he was 0.84secs faster than Facile Vega (eased down), which is no more than the confirmation of the visual performance witnessed.

He looks every inch a worthy Triumph Hurdle winner in March for which he is 5/2 - and I am tempted to go in again.

Now is the time to get lucki in the Arkle

Blue Lord won the Irish Arkle Trophy from Riviere Detel, albeit in controversial style as he crossed over the runner-up at the final fence where she blundered. The mare did remarkably well to battle back to get within 1/2 a length of the winner.

Blue Lord is hard to warm to. He is one of those solid and consistent horses without being a superstar, and backing him feels like settling for a Kens Fried Chicken because KFC is closed. He remains an 11/4 chance for the Arkle and Riviere Detel - who probably has the best form on offer, a 4/1 chance.

On the figures, this was not an improved performance by Riviere Detel on her run behind Ferny Hollow, so the fact Blue Lord only scraped home to beat her doesn't bode well.

The concern for Riviere Detel backers is that she will be two pounds worse off with the winner in March and she didn't exactly sparkle at the Cheltenham venue when seventh in the Boodles.

Neither of them makes too much appeal, and Saint Sam even less so after finishing third to the pair while Haut En Colours' jumping came unstuck, and he needs vast improvement with time, not on his side.

Edwardstone's 3/1 price tag didn't move, but in my mind, this is looking more and more likely to go to the English, and the clear value in the race is Third Time Lucki 9.08/1 on the back of the weekend's events.

Third Time Lucki (6th) and Edwardstone (5th) were closely matched when they both ran in the County Hurdle last year with only a head-splitting the pair, but the latter needed every yard of that trip to get close to the Skelton runner, and the Arkle is over a furlong shorter. Despite finishing behind Edwardstone at Sandown, it was a performance that could be upgraded while at the same time putting a line through it could also easily be argued.

I was impressed with how he settled at Doncaster on his latest outing in a three runner affair, and fences look to have made him into a man. He could meet Edwardstone at Warwick in the Kingmaker on Saturday, and he could be favourite for this race come next Sunday.

Third Time Lucki also has the advantage of being the only horse towards the top of the market to have seen the Cheltenham fences. I want him on side.

Continuing at Leopardstown Conflated caused a minor shock in the Irish Gold Cup and there looked to be no fluke about it. He is now an 8/1 chance from 100/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Our selection Minella Indo ran bounced back to form and ran second, which should put him spot-on for March, and he is in from 8/1 to 4/1 for a repeat victory.

Outstanding Facile Vega will take a world of beating in March

Shut the shop, it's over, and if you disagree with me, you're wrong. Facile Vega put in the day's top performance, running out a commanding bumper winner eased down effortlessly.

It was a performance that wowed many, including myself, and it's no surprise he was priced as short as 11/10 for the Champion Bumper in March. He faced a decent bunch of rivals, all of whom came into the race on the back of a victory, and this contest has an illustrious roll of honour, including Appreciate It, Envoi Allen and Kilcruit.

This is the one they all have to beat, and he could prove one of the bankers of the entire week if reproducing this performance.

The highest RPR produced in the Champion Bumper in the last ten years was 142 from Champagne Fever, and this performance today will likely match or eclipse that - so worth keeping an eye on when produced.

Two very exciting English Novice Chasers

Yes, I said English. L'Homme Presse demolished his rivals at Sandown on Saturday in effortless fashion and is now 11/2 for the Turners Novices Chase, which looks to be his intended target.

His jumping ability is a great asset, but he has a sizeable engine to go with it, and that makes him potentially very dangerous to any of his rivals at Cheltenham, including Bob Olinger.

He has already had a sighter at the Cheltenham fences, and there are very few holes, if any, to pick in his performance today. He is a rapidly improving Novice Chaser that has to be taken very seriously.

Over at Wetherby, Ahoy Senor could not have been more impressive, and it was good to see his jumping improved upon from his Kempton run now going the correct way around. He is a very exciting horse that it has taken me time to warm to, but it's hard to get away from his raw talent. Cheltenham will ask new questions of him, and dominating this three runner affair will be a far cry away from what he will see at Cheltenham. Still, he is a raw talent and is now 9/2 for the Browns Advisory Novice Chase.

Saturday Handicap eye-catchers

Dunboyne - Made a bad error when travelling smoothly and then had to be snatched up in the home straight but was given an easy time of things. He is qualified for the Pertemps Handicap Network Final - although I have a strong bet here if he gets qualified.

Frero Banbou - Another Venetia Williams well-handicapped two miler who could head to the Grand Annual.

Mister Coffey - Crying out for a step up to 3m and did well despite damaging a fence at Sandown. He could be one for the Ultima Handicap.

Dans Le Vent - Made up considerable ground to do the best of those from the rear in a race where it paid to be prominent. Another crack at the Coral Cup looks on the cards.

Galopin Des Champs simply outstanding

Galopin Des Champs proved impressive in the Grade 1 Novices' Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday, winning by a widening nine lengths, and you would have to be impressed about how hard he hit the line over that 2m5f trip.

The immediate reaction of Ruby Walsh after the race was that he doesn't need to go any further for the moment - that comment gave me the feeling that Willie and Ruby may not be signing from the same hymn sheet when it comes to his Cheltenham target.

Galopin Des Champs in now 15/8 for the Turners Chase, where he will meet Bob Olinger and 13/8 with the Betfair Sportsbook for the Browns Advisory.

He took a few chances in the early stages at his fences, almost standing off an extra stride, and he got in tight to one or two but proved he had a sizeable engine when careering away from Master McShee and Gaillard Du Mesnil. The latter improved again after chasing home Bob Olinger at Punchestown.

The third favourite, Fury Road, made a significant error that cost him any chance of being involved in the finish. Second favourite Capodanno made an early departure after looking reluctant to race when setting off.

But this was all about Galopin Des Champs, who looks well above average and is very straightforward. He will have stiffer tasks ahead, with Bob Olinger lying in wait should he go for the shorter trip at Cheltenham, while the Browns Advisory would be an easier assignment. However, six-year-olds have a poor record, and Willie Mullins has admitted to making a mistake with Allaho in 2019, so perhaps Capodanno won't go here either.

He looks very exciting indeed.

Chacun Pour Soi bounced back to form at Leopardstown and took the scalp of the 156 rated Dunvegan. The Betfair Sportsbook cut him into 7/1 for the Champion Chase, but he needs to prove he can travel and put up the same performance at Cheltenham against a proven festival winner in Shishkin.

Interestingly, Galopin Des Champs clocked a three-out to finish time just 0.22 secs slower than Chacun Pour Soi despite having run over 5 1/2 furlongs further.

Here is how the circuit times compared from the first fence in the home straight (first fence 2m race jumps).

(2m) Chacun Pour Soi circuit - 4.08.00
(2m5f) Galopin Des Champs - 4.08.40

Three out to finish

Chacun Pour Soi = 1.06.63
Galopin Des Champs = 1.06.85

From the last fence in the home, straight Chacun Pour Soi reached three out at 3.01.68. Galopin Des Champs got to three out at 3.01.79.

A two-mile pace for the final circuit of a 2m5f race marks him down as a potential superstar, and the Turners Novices Chase, on this evidence, is the right race for him. He is simply outstanding.

We will pick up Honeysuckle and Sir Gerhard and friends next week.