Cheltenham Festival Focus: 8/1 Arkle upset, and 25/1 dark horse for the Stayers

• Corbetts Cross is a million for Gold Cup glory

• Three accas to consider

• Back two horses now Betfair go NRNB

• Check out our 2025 Cheltenham Festival HUB

• We're now NON-RUNNER NO BET on all 28 Cheltenham Festival races

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In week 17 of the Cheltenham Focus column, Daryl Carter rounds up the minimal action in the week that was and switches his attention to some reader's questions. Carter also looks through the NRNB markets on the Betfair Sportsbook and offers two selections for followers.

A warning to punters that Betfair - rightly so - have two markets up for each Cheltenham race. Please check before placing bets that you are using the correct markets.

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Jeriko - Pertemps bound - caught the eye

We rewind to Exeter on Sunday, February 9th, where Only By Night continued her fine form to land the Mares Listed Chase from Kilbarry Saint. The runner-up had been some 12 lengths behind the winner at Cork earlier this season but was ridden differently on this occasion. It's tough to suggest Gavin Cromwell's winner enhanced her Mares Chase claims, particularly intending to go up further in distance. She is an unappealing 11/26.50 NRNB with the Sportsbook, with connections suggesting the Arkle could be an option should the ground come up heavy.

Also at Exeter, Jeriko Du Reponet caught the eye following a third-place finish in the Pertemps Qualifier, and he is now 5/16.00 NRNB. Nicky Henderson has a fair record with placed horses in festival handicaps, and this race tends to go to one with a bit of class, so he must be on any shortlist. He was asked for a significant effort between the second last and final flights, though, and it looked like hard work. Given the heights he promised, there's every chance he is just a busted flush, but it's too soon to write him off.

At Navan on Sunday, Better Days Ahead scrapped home in the Grade 2 3m Novice Chase over last year's Albert Bartlett winner Stellar Story. As a Ballyburn fan, I fear the runner-up more than the winner on this evidence. Stellar Story is a dour stayer, but this was yet another slowly run affair he has been involved in. The Albert Bartlett last term was very steadily run, with the first three dominating the race and filling out those positions at the finish. One suspects Stellar Story could turn into a National horse down the line, but he may struggle with Ballyburn's turn of foot in the Brown Advisory. He looks set for place money, at least at 12/113.00 NRNB.

It's tough to know what Navan bumper winner Copacabana achieved in a race that turned into a dash and was run six seconds slower than the opening Maiden Hurdle. He now sits at the top of the Champion Bumper betting at 4/15.00 NRNB but makes limited appeal.

At Wetherby on Wednesday, Dan Skelton's French recruit Live Conti laid down his Triumph Hurdle claims. This French import had some strong form in France that was continuously boosted. He ran six days earlier than Lulamba and recorded a better circuit time (a pinch of salt here with unknown ground conditions). There's little doubt he has a bright future despite not clocking figures anywhere near what you would expect for a Triumph candidate, but he is quick and a strong stayer and should not be underestimated at 25/126.00 NRNB.

Ballybow 14/115.00 NRNB is set for the Albert Bartlett following Thursday's Mercedes-Benz Grade 3 victory over Ballygunner Castle. This was a dawdle of a race, but he showed a bright turn of foot to get the job done and reversed earlier season Fairyhouse's form with the winner over this long trip. Still, his rating and form need to improve significantly at the festival to be crowned a winner.

On Saturday at Ascot, The Changing Man had a straightforward task to land the Reynoldstown Novices Grade 2 following the early departure of favourite Jingko Blue, and he should be considered for the Ultima Handicap, providing the assessor doesn't go overboard with this victory. He is improving steadily.

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Corbetts Cross should be 100/1101.00 for a Gold Cup, not 11/112.00

Flawless frontrunning display!

There's no stopping Pic D'orhy once again in the Betfair @Ascot Chase!@CobdenHarry | @PFNicholls

pic.twitter.com/UcM3SQglJt

-- Sky Sports Racing (@SkySportsRacing) February 15, 2025

Pic D'Orhy won the Betfair Ascot Chase on Saturday, but Corbetts Cross must be spoken of today. Emmet Mullins' runner again showed a lack of enthusiasm for fences cork screwing at most of his obstacles and losing ground at almost every flight, and landing flat-footed at the last (above). He lacks the pace over fences to be seriously considered for a Gold Cup, and anyone who argues differently can only have an ante-post docket worth a small fortune they are clinging to.

He has no chance in a Gold Cup where the early pace tests the jumping prowess of those hoping for immortality, and the prediction is that he will be tailed off early on.

Corbetts Cross wasn't considered for the Grade 1 Brown Advisory last year. Instead, he ran in a weak renewal of the National Hunt Chase with his trainer and connections cherry-picking an easy victory.

Corbetts Cross was poor at Ascot and couldn't lay a glove on the ten-year-old Pic D'Orhy, who had arrived following one of his worst career performances. This effort from the JP McManus-owned runner was around 20 lbs below what will be required at the Cheltenham Festival, and he shouldn't be on any followers' minds for a chase race in the future.

He must go back over hurdles.

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Followers Questions

How's about you run us through your day ( morning of the races ) , what u do to prepare before racing starts , would u listen to any other podcasts , how u react to the betting while the races are on ,would u follow money on course even tho u have ante post positions etc

-- Michael walker (@MichaelWal59635) February 15, 2025

Thanks for your question, Michael. The Tuesday morning of Cheltenham is full of excitement in my household as if a kid would wake up early for Christmas. However, unlike Christmas, I have nothing to unwrap yet! I find myself waiting around as the column is out. All the work and bets are done for day one, and I feel nervous as I know I can do no more. I will start to write Wednesday's column around 6 am on Tuesday, but only the bankers will go in as I would like to get a feel for the first day and see any form lines play out. Knowing all my work is done, I will listen to other podcasts. However, I wouldn't listen to any before I made my own decisions.

My Wife usually takes this week off with me, so she will make breakfast while I record the Day 2 Podcast for Betfair at around 7 am. I then scan the Betfair Exchange markets to see any movement around 9 am and start putting in some LAY bets for horses I think are getable.

I wouldn't ever follow any money in Grade 1 events, but I would have eyes on handicap money, and I always factor this in and leave myself wiggle room to take the handicap plunge.

I typically have a call with a racing pal mid-morning and then try to pop out to the shop or something to pass the time before returning to the office for midday.

I do a lot of in-running betting during the festival, so I must be at my computer for every race. You'd be surprised how much money there is to make. As for ante-post positions, they simply put me in the best possible place for a rethink on the day. They wouldn't sway how I see the race panning out, and I am not afraid to change my mind.

A nice Accumulator

-- Martin Hall (@hey_mart) February 15, 2025

Thanks, Martin. As promised, here are three below.

Supreme Novice - Kopek Des Bordes
Mares Novice - Maughreen
Double pays 7.53/1 on the Sportsbook NRNB

Supreme Novice Hurdle - Kopek Des Bordes
Brown Advisory - Ballyburn
Triumph - Lulamba
Treble pays 12.63/1 on the Sportsbook NRNB.

Arkle - Jango Baie
Ryanair - Il Est Francias
County - Iberico Lord
E/W Treble pays 540/1 on the Sportsbook NRNB

I've followed u for last few festivals and have made a good bit of profit saw u mention earlier about block betting what do u mean with this?

-- toby-gire (@gire_toby) February 15, 2025

Cheers, Toby.
Block betting over the week can be a good way to play the festival for smaller staked punters. For example, if you liked two in the Ultima, two in the Boodles and two in the Coral Cup, you could block bet these for doubles or trebles, a total stake of £8 for a maximum return of £2k for trebles. A total stake of £12 for doubles.

It's a way of trying to multiply your winnings for smaller stakes with multiple options in a race. If you add the place aspect (E/W), you can roll your placed horses across the week with some luck.

Joyeux Machin to go morbattle now Daryl looking for the bonus do you think? Any others you'd look at for Cheltenham that might be looking for the bonus double?

-- sam prangnell (@SPrangnell) February 16, 2025

Thanks, Sam. Yes, that looks like the plan for Joyeux Machin. Joyeuse could be one to look for that bonus, as the Morebattle will be her fourth and qualifying run!

Do you follow collateral form lines throughout the week in a positive or negative way for bets later in the meeting?

-- James Stock (@JamesStock21) February 15, 2025

Cheers, James. I look for collateral form lines throughout the week but don't rely on them. I hope to be on top of the form lines that matter by following everything in this column all season.

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Back Bob Olinger for the Stayers Hurdle @ 25/126.00 NRNB 1pt

The first horse that jumped out at me in the NRNB markets now offered on the Betfair Sportsbook was Bob Olinger - 25/126.00 for the Stayers Hurdle.

Trainer Henry De Bromhead was keen to mention him in a recent stable tour for this race, but with the owners also holding the ante-post favourite Teahupoo, this could only ever be an NRNB selection.

Still, should Bob Olinger run in this contest, he is certainly not a 25/126.00 chance. The angle with the classy ten-year-old is his outstanding record at Cheltenham. A dominant winner of the now Turners Novice hurdle over 2m5f, a fortunate winner of the Turners Chase and a devastating winner in 2024 of the Relkeel Hurdle - He loves Cheltenham.

His Aintree nose, second to Impaire Et Passe last April, suggests he loves coming to Britain to race. He must prove he stays three miles, but in Britain, he has always finished out his races with running left. The way British races are run suits him far better than those in Ireland, and should connections take the chance, he must be a big player in a poor division.

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Back Jango Baie to win the Arkle @ 8/19.00 1pt e/w NRNB (3 places)

Majborough is rightly leading this market 4/71.57, and there's a good chance the five-year-old could prove a class above this opposition. I don't take him on lightly, but there is excellent value in backing a horse E/W against him in this market, and that's Jango Baie. 

Nicky Henderson's runner is a substitute for Sir Gino, but it's tough to get away from how impressive he was at Cheltenham at the start of the campaign when slamming a genuine 145-rated horse in Springwell Bay who boosted the form subsequently. That was a sensational effort and not far off the level of form Majborough has shown in his two outings. The selection came out very well on the clock to mark him down as a Grade 1 horse, and his jumping is flawless. 

That was a remarkable performance when you consider it was his debut over fences, and the six-year-old went down all guns blazing in the Scilly Isles at Sandown on heavy ground to a smart stayer in the making in Handstands.

One suspects heavy ground is not to his liking, but a spring surface dropped back to 2m could show him in the best light and this track is clearly no issue. He is not short of speed; he glided across the Cheltenham turf in December and he has been underestimated in this contest. 

I would have him as the biggest danger to Majborough around 3/14.00 and ahead of L'eau Du Sud in this betting, not twice the price. I'd say this race could cut up even further with Only By Night a possible in the Mares Chase, Springwell Bay handicap bound along with Jordans and Ballyburn - who is 4/15.00 second favourite - certain to head to the Brown Advisory, leaving a "half glass full" field of six. Therefore, the best bet in the NRMB ante-post market now is Jango Baie E/W, and he holds every chance on the figures. With chinks in Majborough's jumping, he is offered as the likely beneficiary should the Mullins runner fail.

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Market Movers

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What's On This Week?

Handicap entries for the Festival are out on Tuesday.

Jade De Grugy returns to the track on Wednesday. She is currently 4/15.00 NRMB for the Mares Hurdle.

On Saturday, Jinko Blue may run again at Kempton along with stablemates Palladium and Lulamba who could take in the Adonis.

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Now Read: The Cheltenham Ultimate Guide Here.

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