Sam Turner on the Cheltenham Festival: Nothing novicey about superstar Demand

• Gaelic proves the ultimate Warrior at Punchestown

• Star Mullins novices already take high rank

• Stylish Dawning impresses, but what did he achieve? 

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Seven days of seismic moves in Cheltenham 2026 betting

In last week's piece, the only Cheltenham Festival ante-post bet that truly made any appeal was Alexei and he was more speculative than concrete.

As enjoyable as the racing was at the November meeting, it produced more tremors than seismic shifts in the March markets.

However, all that has changed in the last seven days with high-quality equine talent rolled out on a daily basis and prices collapsing quicker than an England batting line-up.

Final Demand, Lulamba and Kopek Des Bordes formed a brilliant trio of novice chase winners in the early part of an informative week which culminated with a pulsating John Durkan Mermorial Chase at Punchestown on Sunday.

As good as that marquee Grade 1 event was with Gaelic Warrior battling back to head stable Fact To File in the dying strides, the one performance of the week which left me in awe was Final Demand and below are the reasons why.

This week's notable antepost Market Movers:

• Gaelic Warrior 6/42.50 from 5/23.50 for the King George (26 Dec)
• Gaelic Warrior 8/19.00 from 12/113.00 for the Gold Cup (13 Mar)
• Grey Dawning 12/113.00 from 16/117.00 the Ryanair Chase (12 Mar)
• Grey Dawning 16/117.00 from 33/134.00 for the Gold Cup (13 Mar)
• Jango Baie 3130/1 from 12/113.00 for the King George (26 Dec)
• Jango Baie 7/18.00 from 20/121.00 for the Ryanair Chase (12 Mar)
• The Jukebox Man 9/25.50 from 12/113.00 for the King George (26 Dec)
• The Jukebox Man 12/113.00 from 20/121.00 for the Ryanair Chase (12 Mar)
• Wodhooh 2/13.00 from 3/14.00 Mares' Hurdle (12 Mar)
• Kabral Du Mathan 50/151.00 first show for Champion Hurdle (10 Mar)
• Desertmore House 8/19.00 from 10/111.00 Cross Country Chase (11 Mar)
• It's Only A Game 25/126.00 from 40/141.00 for the Champion Bumper
• Electric Mason 14/115.00 from 25/126.00 for the Pertemps Final (13 Mar)

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Cheltenham can prove Final's destination

Although the dust has settled on Final Demand's chasing debut at Navan, I didn't cover his return to action in last week's column as the complete data wasn't all available.

It certainly is now and it makes impressive reading.

While the overall time wasn't flash with a steadily run first circuit a contributory factor, the son of Walk In The Park could not have done any more at his obstacles with RaceIQ measuring his jump index at a stellar 9.2 (out of 10), a figure which puts him joint top of all debutant novice chasers in their database since the operation began keeping data.

Final Demand gained in excess of 25 lengths on his rivals, including 10 at the final two fences as he brushed aside the talented Wingman to win with his head in his chest and virtually repeat the margin of victory when they met in a Grade 1 hurdle at Leopardstown in February.

What was just as taking, was the manner in which he opened up from the first fence in the straight (third last) as there were still five or six rivals in close proximity at that point, but with two to jump he had only Wingman for company and his sole adverary was left toiling in strides.

It was as complete a performance as you would hope to see from a novice chaser; a perfect blend of respect and adventure, combined with efficiency and natural ability and it is difficult to envisage him being beaten this season if he remains fit and healthy.

Quotes of 6/42.50 for the Brown Advisory Chase (now 5/42.25) at the Cheltenham Festival don't really set the heart racing, but if you take the view that he is a potential Gold Cup winner, as I do, then for those happy to tie up some capital until March, Final Demand may still appeal.

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All a-Bordes the Kopek bandwagon

A day after Final Demand's romp, trainer Willie Mullins took the wraps off another of his marquee novice chasers when Kopek Des Bordes duly dismantled 10 rivals to justify thin odds in a beginners' chase.

In contrast to potential Arkle Chase rival Lulamba, who made his chasing bow on the same afternoon at a sunny Exeter, last season's Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner jumped all of the obstacles on offer with no low sun issues robbing him of welcome chasing experience.

This was just his sixth career start and, although the overall time was extremely modest, his final circuit time was on a par with the 164-rated five-length Fortria Chase winner Found A Fifty while he was 17-18 lengths quicker from the four-furlong marker than his illustrious rival in winning with a finishing speed percentage of 111.43% according to RaceIQ data.

Rider Paul Townend was keen to teach his mount something over the first few obstacles, but by mid-race Kopek Des Bordes had tanked into the lead and, once his partner had fully let off the handbrake by the second last, the five-year-old's final two leaps were his best and featured rapid recovery times of 0.34 seconds at each obstacle (gained seven lengths on his rivals).

The layers wasted no time installing him as a general 7/42.75 chance for the Arkle and the precautionary price was easy to understand given this was a performance oozing in class.

The only slight reservation would be Kopek Des Bordes' enthusiasm and determination to do everything in top gear - traits which aren't always suited to a Grade 1 two mile contest at Cheltenham - and he clearly sports the hood for good reason.

However he is with a top team, has pace and ability in spades and adores his jumping so deserves to be current favourite over Lulamba.

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Lula gives Hendo reason to shout 

Earmarked for the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown in a couple of months time, Lulamba only jumped eight of the 12 fences on offer at Exeter with the low sun an issue and his technique could be described as a work in progress.

Like rival Fingle Bridge who was pretty average across the first four fences, Lulamba warmed to his task and three of his last four leaps produced respectable recovery times away from the fences (0.50/0.60/0.70 seconds).

In contrast to his Irish counterparts, the overall speed figure was extremely swift so Lulamba's jump index of a below-par 6.0 could be forgiven somewhat and, although he will surely gain more lengths in jumping with this experience behind him, it was a solid, if unspectacular start.

The lightly-raced runner-up Fingle Bridge has been difficult to train, but he is clearly highly talented and his data confirmed he ran two races in one.

His first four fences saw him lose on average 8.68mph at his obstacles, while the final four produced an average loss of just 4.8mph as he warmed to his task and stayed on takingly to finish second.

Unfortunately, everyone saw his finishing effort and putting up a seven-year-old of a fragile constitution who, according to his handler, is unlikely to go to Cheltenham as a horse to follow might not be the smartest move, as talented as he no doubt is.

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Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip: Warrior plants Festival flag

Fast forward to the weekend and Ascot, Haydock and Punchestown featured a number of star performances, not least Jango Baie who turned the 1965 Chase into a romp.

Another disappointing effort from Il Est Francais aside, this was a sizeable step forward from the Arkle Chase winner who showed the benefit of a wind operation and no ill effects from an injury sustained in the Manifesto Novices' Chase at Aintree in the spring to pummel his rivals.

The Tiger Groom gelding really hit the line strongly here, recording a finishing percentage of 102.99% in comparison to Gidleigh Park (99.79%) as he comfortably reversed placings from Aintree to advance his claims for the King George, for which layers cut him to 3/14.00.

Standing in his way is the formidable presence of Gaelic Warrior who took his record right-handed to seven wins from eight starts with a titanic defeat of Fact To File in a vintage renewal of the John Durkan.

The first two home were an incredible 29 lengths ahead of Fastorslow at the line and both recorded stunning jump index ratings of 9.1 (winner) and 9.5 (runner-up).

In fact, Fact To File's rating features in the top 10 ever recorded in the RaceIQ database which shows just how good Gaelic Warrior must have been to beat him.

Many felt the winner did too much in front, but a finishing speed percentage of 101.06% decrees that Townend judged it near perfectly at the head of affairs and, if anything, Mark Walsh sat too far off the winner - an opinion vindicated by a final circuit time of 3:15:50 compared to Gaelic Warrior's 3:18:00 which suggests Fact To File had to work harder than ideal to track down his stablemate.

Given both are trained by Willie Mullins, trying to predict with certainty where they will run next for ante-post purposes is as easy as facing Mitchell Starc with a pink ball in a day/night Test Match, but either the King George or the Savills Chase look on the agenda for both.

Which one ends up in which is anybody's guess, but the King George does look a natural fit for Gaelic Warrior given his love of going right-handed, and his comprehensive defeat of Grey Dawning in the Bowl at Aintree (3m1f) highlighted the 2024 Arkle winner's staying prowess.

Having won that Grade 1 over a staying trip, I find it hard to believe Gaelic Warrior will revert to the Ryanair Chase in the spring unless the ground was bottomless and, although his price for the Gold Cup has tightened up, he will only be eight in March whereas stablemate Galopin Des Champs will be trying to regain his title at the age of 10 (no winner that old since Cool Dawn in 1998) with history largely stacked against such a feat.

At general odds of 8/19.00, he makes some appeal for the Gold Cup, especially as his owner must surely prefer a tilt at the blue riband event instead of trying to win the Ryanair for the third time.

With this in mind, and the fact Fact To File is as short as 7/42.75 for the Ryanair and connections are often swayed by market position when evaluating targets, let's add Gaelic Warrior to the ante-post portfolio.

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Dashing Dawning still needs to improve

Finally, it would be remiss not to mention Grey Dawning's creditable victory in the Betfair Chase, after which many firms trimmed Dan Skelton's gelding to 14/115.00 for the Gold Cup.

Skelton had been on the record ahead of Saturday's Grade 1 test revealing his eight-year-old had done plenty of work as he sought compensation for defeat in the staying feature last year.

Victory this time round was never seriously in doubt though and the better ground he encountered clearly played to his strengths and compromised the chance of some of his rivals, most notable Royale Pagaille who was outspeeded from the last.

The closing four-furlong sectional times from Saturday's chases make interesting reading with Grey Dawning's time of 62.50 seconds, comfortably the slowest of the quartet, while he only gained 4.33 lengths on his rivals with his jumping.  

This was a fine effort from Grey Dawning who clearly didn't have to be at full capacity late on and is capable of stepping forward again, but he will need to as a three-length defeat of an 11-year-old Haydock mudlark is far removed from the level Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File reached just 24 hours later.   

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Sam Turner's Cheltenham Festival Ante-post Ledger

Champion Hurdle - Alexei each-way @ 33/134.00  

Gold Cup - Gaelic Warrior win @ 8/19.00

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Talent Tracker

Aeroplane Blonde

Bespoke Tailor

Destination Dubai

El Capitaine

Final Demand

Heads Up

Lord Of All Saints

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Now read Katie Midwinter's latest tips here

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