Sam Turner on the Cheltenham Festival: Tizzard ace could prove an Al of a Champion bet

• Improving Greatwood winner looks a Champion price

• Side with Saints to march back to winner's enclosure

• Capitaine can rule again after eyecatching effort

Blogs concerning the Cheltenham Festival and potential ante-post wagers are plentiful these days and, if you're the type of punter or racing enthusiast that is completely turned off by the prospect of digesting more Cheltenham views then this piece may not be for you.

However, while I will endeavour to discuss the merits (and failings) of horses which might find themselves at Prestbury Park in March, there should be more to this column than just a list of Festival wagers - well, that's the intention anyway!

In this curtain raiser, I will use RaceIQ data to compare some of the notable performances which occurred during the three-day November meeting while I will also endeavour going forward to identify those which may have been overrated and overhyped in future columns.

It is a bit early in the day to get too excited about the festival markets just yet, but there was one performance during the weekend which promised plenty and is covered below, along with some reasons why odds of 33/134.00 plus are pretty enticing.  

Champion Hurdle: Alexei ups the ante

Those of us old enough to recall West Country stalwart Rooster Booster and his victory in the Champion Hurdle, will remember that the dashing grey took an age to add to his initial hurdles success in a Taunton maiden hurdle back at the start of the new millennium.

It was more than two years before the son of Riverwise won the County Hurdle under Richard Johnson, but the confidence he gained from that defeat of The Gatherer set him up for a breakthrough campaign which saw him win four times prior to completing a rout in the 2003 Champion Hurdle.

Having landed the Greatwood Hurdle off 134, Alexei is currently someway from that level, but he is sure to have earned a sizeable hike in the ratings for this six-length romp and I wonder if he, like Rooster Booster, could leave handicaps behind and develop into a live contender at a price for the Champion Hurdle.

A decent surface is the key to the German recruit who began life in this country winning a Wincanton charity race with Tom Malone on board.

He has since wasted little time landing four of his seven hurdes starts since with two of the defeats easily excused by the trip and soft ground and the fact he has been extremely well backed both at Ascot and now Cheltenham suggests he is something out of the ordinary.

Two miles on good ground are Alexei's optimum conditions and the pace he showed to pull readily clear of Helnwein with a further seven lengths back to the third was extremely taking.

There are plenty of ifs and buts at the head of the Champion Hurdle market with some of those above Alexei in the list far from certain to be targeted at the race.

Should trainer Joe Tizzard find another opportunity where he can showcase his talented gelding's deadly change of gear on his favoured ground then the 33/134.00 may prove a distant memory.

November Meeting Lessons: Supremely West run can be overlooked

The well-worn adage; 'beware those already qualified for the Pertemps Final' was born out in the three-mile handicap hurdle on Saturday where Supremely West and Long Draw took out two thirds of the market, yet could only managed fourth and fifth respectively.

While the latter stuck on to take fourth following some sloppy early leaps, the stewards enquired into the running and riding of the well-backed market leader Supremely West who could only finish fifth having raced towards the inside of the hurdles track, along with the front-running Gowel Road, for the entirety of the three-mile contest.

Jockey Harry Skelton explained 'that his priority was to sit prominently and race with cover as his mount has a tendency to race keenly' - sadly for followers of the favourite that meant Supremely West took the most worn racing line which led to him finishing a well-beaten fifth, three places behind the all-the-way winner Kikijo and Skelton second string Prince Zaltar who was well backed prior to finishing second having raced wide throughout.

Skelton compounded the error in the next race by reverting to his much preferred route of navigating a wide berth on Royal Infantry in the ensuing handicap and the move nearly paid off with his mount arriving at the last hurdle with every chance before fading back into fourth.

Quite what the motivation was for racing round the inner, just about the only time one of the Skelton's hurdlers raced there all weekend, is unclear, safe to say this is not form to trust, as likeable as the winner is.

Moving forward, I would be forgiving of Supremely West and positive about Kikijo and Gowel Road.

The former was only winning off 120, but caught the eye at Aintree with his doughty head carriage and he topped just about every RaceIQ jumping metric here to win in a modest time.

He is clearly one to keep onside, while Gowel Road's winning days may not be done given where he raced and how close he finished to a progressive, well handicapped winner.

Talent Tracker: Six to note 

Heads Up should be winning soon

There was plenty of chat about which part of the chase and hurdle track was favoured during the November meeting and the common census that was reached, correctly in my view, was that the outside rail on the hurdles course was the place to race wherever possible.

One or two which ignored a pretty obvious track bias included Supremely West (discussed above), Heads Up (Friday, Grade 2 Hurdle) and Bespoke Tailor (Sunday, 2m novice hurdle), while El Capitaine's fine run is covered below.  

Runner-up in the bumper at last year's festival, Heads Up was a shade too keen under Mark McDonagh who, if he could have his time again, may have steered a wider passage in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle.

It would be stretching things to suggest it cost him victory though, given the way the Challow Hurdle-bound No Drama This End, compared to the mighty Denman in the post-race debrief, careered away from the Irish raider in the straight.

Heads Up still showed an inclination to edge right at his hurdles, but is clearly well above average and ought to find compensation soon.

There was also plenty to take from the effort in fourth of Destination Dubai who jumped better than he had at Wetherby in an egg and spoon affair and might find further improvement over three miles when tackling handicaps.

Finally, Bespoke Tailor's passage around the inside rail wasn't as pronounced as some, but he still emerged best of those that raced on that part of the track and this was a marked step up on his Fontwell debut.

He remains of real interest going forward given his finishing speed percentage at 103.93 per cent was second best and he also gained five lengths with his hurdling.    

Lord Of All Saints one to forgive 

El Capitaine and Lord Of All Saints took in the opening conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle and both performed with enough promise to suggest they are worth putting in the tracker.

The former, a narrow winner off 112 at Newton Abbot, took the inside passage under his Irish rider, yet still ran remakably well to take fourth for his in-form connections. On this evidence there could me more to come over further in time.

Given Lord Of All Saints was 13th, beaten 26 lengths, he may not go into too many notebooks, but there was enough in the performance - which appeared much-needed fitness-wise - to suggest there is better to come.

Harriet Dickin's five-year-old reeled off a hat-trick on bad ground last year and was just too enthusiastic here, tanking to the front three hurdles from home under regular rider Bradley Harris before dropping in a hole.

I will be following his progress closely now the rains have come.  

Last, but no means least, Aeroplane Blonde deserves a mention as he did remarkably well to finish fourth in the gloom in the final race won by French Emperor.

The time of the finale wasn't flash and it paid to race handily, so it was to the five-year-old's great credit that he finished fourth having been held up early on.

The gelding's chief achilles heel remains his jumping; errors cost him dearly on his Carlisle comeback and it again halted his progress at a big price here as he was rated 11th on the RaceIQ 'lengths gained' metric and was also bottom of the 'speed lost at hurdles' rating.

If he can clean up his hurdling technique, his racing in the low 100s looks extremely exploitable.

Ante-post Ledger

Champion Hurdle - Alexei each-way @ 33/1  

Tracker Talent

Aeroplane Blonde

Bespoke Tailor

Destination Dubai

El Capitaine

Heads Up

Lord Of All Saints

Now read Katie Midwinter's latest tips here