Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: The favourites to oppose on Tuesday at the Festival

We start with the Supreme Hurdle at 13:30, a race won five times in the last 10 years by a Willie Mullins runner starting at less than 13/2. Nicky Henderson's two winners in the last decade were Shishkin 6/1 and Altior 4/1, both ridden by Nico de Boinville.

No surprise, then, that the first four in the betting come from these two yards, as they clearly know what's needed for a novice to reign Supreme.

Jonbon must improve to stay unbeaten

Henderson's two are Constitution Hill and Jonbon. The former's second of two wins came in the Tolworth at Sandown, making him the only Grade 1 hurdles winner in the line-up. He travelled strongly from the get-go and put the race to bed with a good jump two out, going on to win impressively.

Jonbon has been equally impressive in winning a maiden and two Grade 2s, but in slower times and against weaker opposition. He would be getting 3lb from Constitution Hill in a handicap. As they are novices the limit of their ability is often unknown, but I'd sooner be with Constitution Hill of the two.

The Mullins pair, Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit, are both comfortable going off in front. The former is ridden by stable jockey Paul Townend, the latter by the trainer's son Patrick, Ireland's champion amateur.

Dysart Dynamo is top-rated by 4lb, so he may well keep his position at the head of the market. I certainly wouldn't want to lay him, or his stablemate who won the Grade 1 bumper at the Punchestown Festival after finishing runner-up to Wednesday's Ballymore favourite Sir Gerhard here.

If you want to oppose one of the market leaders win and place in the opener, I suggest Jonbon.

Saint Sam will do well to be placed in the Arkle

Four of the five that head the market for the Arkle at 14:10 come on from the Grade 1 Irish Arkle Chase at Leopardstown last month.

Saint Sam made the running until two out at which point he was readily reeled in by Blue Lord and the mare Riviere d'Etel. The well-backed Haut En Couleurs, trained like Saint Sam and Blue Lord by Willie Mullins, fell at the third.

Of the four, three are bred to jump fences, the odd one out is Saint Sam whose errors under pressure at Leopardstown caused him to look like a square peg in a round hole at times. It wouldn't surprise me to see him back over hurdles if he is unplaced in the Arkle.

He is certainly not entitled to beat Blue Lord or Riviere d'Etel, and Edwardstone and War Lord are arguably the best two two-mile novice chasers in England, having come first and second in a Grade 1 at Sandown in early December.

So, much as I love Saint Sam's will to win and attitude, I think this is a big ask and he will struggle to be placed.

The Ultima Handicap Chase at 14:50 doesn't lend itself to laying. There are 24 runners and the shortest-priced horses on the Exchange are Floeur 109/1 and Does He Know 1110/1. With four places, the place market doesn't appeal either.

Honeysuckle faces her stiffest task yet

Honeysuckle deserves to be odds-on for the Champion Hurdle at 15:30, but 1.674/6 is plenty short enough on her two runs this winter. She earned Racing Post ratings of 160 at Fairyhouse and 159 when coming home clear of Zanahiyr and Saint Roi in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. Her perceived main rivals, Appreciate It and Teahupoo, were both rated 165 on their last starts, which gives them a squeak despite having to concede 7lb to the favourite.

It boils down to whether Honeysuckle is as good this year as last March when she was a conclusive winner of the Champion. If you think so, then leave the race alone from a lay perspective. If you think her form has dropped off 7lb, then she is worth laying at 1.684/6 on the Exchange.

Mares' Hurdle favourite gets the thumbs down

The Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle at 16:10 has an open look to it for once, with Telmesomethinggirl, Queens Brook and Stormy Ireland 4.77/2, 5.49/2 and 7.413/2 respectively.

The last four runnings have seen four odds-on shots turned over: Apples Jade in 2018. Benie Des Dieux in 2019 and 2020, and Concertista in 2021 - all cherry-picked in France by Willie Mullins.

The Irish champion trainer knows what's what with regard to this race. He has won nine of the 14 runnings since it was first run in 2008. In 2017, 2019 and 2020 he had the second and third. Last year he had the runner-up but missed out on third.

He runs three of the first five in the betting, and you could put a good case for each one winning, as all three are Grade 1 winners.

Stormy Ireland won the Irish Mares' Champion Hurdle in May. Burning Victory has run consistently well on the Flat and over hurdles since winning the JCB Triumph at the 2020 Festival. Echoes In Rain won the Irish Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown last spring.

With Gordon Elliott's consistent mare Queens Brook never having finished out of the first three in eight starts, including the 2020 Champion Bumper, you have to wonder how Telmesomethinggirl can be favourite.

The only race she has won in the last 18 months was the Mares' Novices' Hurdle 12 months ago - as uncompetitive a Grade 2 as has been run in recent years.

She looks a stand-out win lay at 4.77/2 but if those odds are too big for your taste, a place lay at around 2.01/1 could reward.

Gaelic Warrior can not be opposed on form

Hot on the heels of a possible Mullins' 1-2-3 in the Mares' Hurdle comes the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, a race in which Mullins has the 3.814/5 favourite Gaelic Warrior.

While nine trainers out of 10 would have prepared the four-year-old for the Triumph, Mullins has kept this dark horse under wraps with this handicap in mind since buying him in France last summer.

Gaelic Warrior failed to win at Auteuil - coming third twice and sixth once, all with James Reveley in the saddle - but showed enough to be rated 140+ on the strength of what has been achieved by those that finished ahead of him. That he runs off 129 is astounding. How come the handicapper's assessment is so wide of the mark?

Clearly, he needs to have everything go right if he is to win a 22-runner race but Paul Townend is likely to keep him out of trouble and I, for one, won't be laying him. He is there to be shot at, though, and hasn't run since June so I can appreciate why some will see him as one to take on.

Stattler's stamina will be put to the test

The closing National Hunt Novices' Chase has attracted quality rather than quantity this year, and is all the better for it.

The favourite is Run Wild Fred, who ran second in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse last April. Rated 140 then, he is now 158, and so very much on the up.

Third favourite Vanillier was 10 lengths adrift at the line when they were second and third behind Fury Road in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown after Christmas, so Derek O'Connor's mount is understandably two points longer in the betting.

Mullins' Stattler is second favourite in the betting at 3.55/2 to win. Stattler's stamina is less assured than his stablemate's, who was fourth in the Ladbroke Trophy Chase at Newbury in November, and as Stattler was a well-beaten fourth behind Vanillier in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle last March he appeals as a lay at under 4.03/1 on the Exchange.