Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: 3/1 selection headlines Daryl Carter's bets

• Gaelic Warrior and Corbetts Cross are the standout bets

• Trelawne is the strongest of the two Ultima selections

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• Serial Winners Fund - We're paying £10k for every Rachael Blackmore winner at Cheltenham

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Rachael Blackmore Superboost

Rachael has a good chance on Quilixios in the Arkle Chase at 14:10 today, and if you fancy the horse to run well you can back it at the super-boosted price of 6/42.50 (from 4/61.67) to finish in the top top four.

13:30 Cheltenham - Back Mystical Power @ BSP 1pt

In our Cheltenham Festival Focus column, I have already advised Jeriko Du Reponet 1pt @ 12/113.00 and Mystical Power 1pt @ 14/115.00.

However, I also like the chances of Tullyhill, who could get the run of this race under Paul Townend and clocked a decent overall time when landing the Listed contest at Punchestown three weeks ago.

There must be an air of confidence in Tullyhill and Mystical Power from the Mullins camp to divert their standout Novice Ballyburn to the Gallagher Novices' Hurdle, and the hint should be taken so it's wise to keep them BOTH on side.

Tullyhill was considered the Supreme Novice hope last year when they entered to take on A Dream To Share at Punchestown in the Grade 1 Bumper. Things didn't go as planned on his first outing of the year, but he improved, like many of the Willie Mullins camp, for his first start. He is improving with each run, and he took a blow after his victory at Punchestown, so I expect further from him.

Townend rides this track so well from a prominent position, and I want Tullyhill on side.

However, there is an air of star power about Mystical Power, and he is also open to significant improvement. He has only had two outings over hurdles, and his improvement from one start to the next is jaw-dropping.

His jumping will improve with a good pace today, and he is entitled - like all of the Mullins' runners this season - to take another big step forward now that he is race-fit, considering Punchestown came after 167 days off the track.

I have Mystical Power and Tullyhill above the rest.

Slade Steel will prove popular, but he needs to be quicker for me, and he is running over the wrong trip, so despite his strong form second at the DRF, I am happy to take him on. The same goes for Firefox, who must bounce back from a weak finishing effort in the Lawlors Of Naas - a race in which Mystical Power was heavily backed before the rearranged fixture.

Firefox is a Maiden winner, and Ballyburn was as big as a bull in the ring that day when he dictated a very, very slowly run affair.

Mistergif has been talked about recently, but comparing his Limerick victory to the 80-rated winner on the card only makes it look average. He is entitled to improve, too, but like Jeriko Du Reponet, he has to do so by a significant margin on figures.

I am firmly in the camp of Mystical Power and Tullyhill, but for this column, Mystical Power is the horse I want to be with. There is some movement to come in this market, so back him at BSP.

Jeriko Du Reponet is also in our portfolio. He would be a welcome but also a surprise winner.

14:10 Cheltenham - Back Gaelic Warrior @ 3/14.00 3pt win (NAP)

In our Cheltenham Festival Focus column, I have already advised Master Chewy 1pt e/w @ 25/126.00 (3 places).

I am happy with the position there, so there is no need to return today with the presence of Gaelic Warrior - 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who looks like a smashing bet now re-routed to the Arkle. While going left-handed is not his ideal scenario, he ranks well above these rivals today.

The Novice Chase scene over 2m this season has been weak with a lack of depth, but Gaelic Warrior has been a standout, along with one or two contesting other races. He is a spectacular jumper, fast and fluent and has a sizeable engine. Connections are wise to his jumping out to the right, so measures will be taken to keep him straight and narrow, like when he finished second in the Ballymore Novice Hurdle last term behind Impaire Et Passe.

This season, he has looked tailor-made for an Arkle and effortlessly beat the Irish Arkle winner, Il Etait Temps, at Limerick. I can't have that form reversed because he is now going left-handed. As his figures would suggest, he is simply a superior horse to anything in the field.

The form of Il Etait Temps and Found A Fifty, in particular, is not strong. Found A Fifty has been dictating slowly run races in Ireland and still struggles to get the job done while he also goes out to the right.

Quilixios will be popular, but he is another - even more so than Gaelic Warrior - that jumps violently right, and he hasn't shown to be quick enough for this 2m trip.

Over hurdles, the English challenge would be 50/151.00 plus, and while they are respected as good horses, Cheltenham is made for champions. Gaelic Warrior is a 160-plus horse racing against mid-140s horses today, and if not for his last run when going off too hard, he would be a short-price for this contest.

The fitting of the hood is positive for him. It will help him settle amongst runners, and he will be swinging on the bridle, turning into home. He rates one of the bets of the week, and any 4/51.80 or bigger is acceptable.

More day one Cheltenham tips on our Racing...Only Bettor podcast

14:50 Cheltenham - Back Trelawne @ 8/19.00 1pt e/w (6 places)

In our Cheltenham Festival Focus column, I have already advised Trelawne @ 20/121.00 1-point win, but I am keen to go back in at 8/19.00 as he would be my most vigorous fancy in this race.

Trelawne - 8/19.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has a very workable handicap rating of 144 based on his near misses over a trip too short this term. Stepping back up to 3m, which saw him successful on his only two starts over hurdles, is a huge positive.

He was unfavoured by a small field race at Exeter last time, which turned tactical, and the winner, Crebilly, is well fancied for the Plate Handicap later in the week. He did remarkably well when showing his quirks at Wetherby the time before to chase home Colonel Harry and, before that, bumped into the Turners Novice Chase hopes Ginny's Destiny and Grey Dawning with Crebilly behind.

That is a form to follow this week, and he is a 150-plus staying-chaser in the making. He is bred for stamina and has a fantastic chance.

14:50 Cheltenham - Back Monbeg Genius @ 12/113.00 1pt

Recency bias plays a big part in Monbeg Genius' - 12/113.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook--which looks like a good bet.

The eight-year-old finished a clear third in this race last year to Gold Cup hopes Corach Rambler and Fastorslow, who are both rated considerably higher in the handicap. Meanwhile, he went on to run a blinder when third in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury off this rating of 147 and despite being due to go down two pounds, he makes plenty of appeal returned to this venue and soft ground.

He is lightly raced and unexposed over fences, while those who attempt a repeat win in this race have a good record. Furthermore, he has improved a second time after a break in the past, so he can't go unbacked, particularly at his current odds when last year's fourth is as short as 5/16.00.

16:50 Cheltenham - Back Palamon @ 20/121.00 1pt e/w (6 places)

In our Cheltenham Festival Focus column, I have already advised Palamon 1pt @ 20/121.00; however, I am happy to go in again.

The Paul Nolan runner was picked up from Richard Hannon's yard after a dominant victory at York on his final flat start. He was progressive in that sphere but has shown a natural aptitude for this discipline. However, that wasn't evident on debut at Leopardstown when he only jumped adequately in a deep race won by Intellotto.

He was buried away in atrocious conditions on the inside rail and was short of room in a race that saw Ethical Diamond disappoint but with Lark In The Mornin and Ndaawi in sixth and fifth.

He was a big eye-catcher the next time at Punchestown in January, making swift headway alongside Lark In The Mornin from an impossible position against the rail before blundering. Still, he stuck to the task eye-catchingly well when that could have easily knocked him out of the back of the TV.

It was his latest run at Naas that forced him into this column.
He was held up well off the pace, giving leader and eventual winner Ndaawi ten lengths only to circle the entire field and get to the front effortlessly. Once there, his rider gave some animated moves but hardly asked the question, allowing the winner to skip away and win by three lengths eased down.

The BHA Handicapper gave Ndaawi a rating of 134 and the selection Palamon 121, meaning he will be 13 pounds better off with that one at the festival, and I am positive they have been keeping some up their sleeve. Still, even on his progressive flat rating of 79, a mark of 121 could easily look exploitable.

Any 12/113.00 or bigger is acceptable.

16:50 Cheltenham - Back Nara @ BSP 1pt

Nara came out of the Fillies race equivalent to Sir Gino on debut when winning well, and that race clocked only an eight-length slower circuit time than the Triumph Hurdle favourite.

Nara has been given an opening rating of 126 and has had two very quiet runs this season, the first without the tongue tie she wore in France and the second without a hood, but in a race that has produced four of the last five winners of this. Today, she gets the combination of both, and we haven't seen the best of her yet with the booking of Mark Walsh catching the eye.

17:30 Cheltenham - Corbetts Cross @ 15/82.88 2pt

I have already advised Corbetts Cross 1pt win @ 20/121.00 in our Cheltenham Festival Focus column.

With the race now cut up, he is of excellent value at anything more significant than 11/102.11.

Corbetts Cross gets the fitting of the first-time hood, which is positive and gives him every chance to settle before and during the race. He is by far the classiest horse in the contest and travelled all over Embassy Gardens last year in the Albert Bartlett. He jumps perfectly fine when asked - watch his jumping down the back at Leopardstown - and these Cheltenham fences are more relaxed than some in Ireland.

He is bred to stay well, as evidenced by his strong finishing effort in the Neville Hotel Novices Chase behind Grangeclare West. He makes stacks of appeal against these rivals, and Derek O'Connor is an excellent pilot.

I can't believe he is the same price as the Willie Mullins horse whose latest performance is very much over-egged, and he tends to fold when off the bridle.

Now Read Tony Calvin's Day 1 Cheltenham Tips here.

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