Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams thinks race fitness can tell at Longchamp

• Ran well over too short last time

• Main danger coming back off long break

• Sevenna's Knight is overpriced at Longchamp

Longchamp - 13:33 - Back Sevenna's Knight

Junko heads the market for the Prix d'Hedouville and I think he's the most talented horse in the race over this trip but he's returning from an eleven-month absence so there has to be a concern over whether he will be at his best today.

That can leave the door open for his stablemate, Sevenna's Knight, to take advantage after he made a promising seasonable debut at Saint Cloud. That race was over 1m2f, which is on the sharp side for him, but he ran very well to finish a close third behind Map Of Stars despite not being given a particularly hard ride.

Sevenna's Knight showed last season that he's capable of putting up a very good performance over this distance when he finished fifth in the Arc and I expect he'll be a bit fitter for the Saint Cloud run and will hopefully be given a stronger ride if necessary. It may be that the sizable Sibayan will take another step forward to be competitive at this level but I think the market hasn't missed his potential whereas Sevenna's Knight should be close to Junko. Any 2/13.00 or bigger appeals. 

Now read Katie Midwinter's Sunday tips here.