Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams is taking a 20/1 gamble at Worcester

• Weak finisher over longer trips

• Hood removed

• The Gambler is overpriced at Worcester

Worcester - 16:03 - Back The Gambler

The Gambler has finished well beaten in her last two starts but she shaped better than the bare result suggests on both occasions and I think she's capable of running well at a big price in the opening handicap chase at Worcester.

Having looked a blatant non-stayer over trips around three miles on her first two starts in handicap chases, she was dropped back to 2m3f at Stratford and ran well to finish second with the strong early pace suiting her.

Two starts ago at Bangor, she travelled strongly into contention having been held up before dropping away from the final bend and it was a similar story last time at this track.

Both of those starts were over 2m4f and I think the drop back in trip today could see The Gambler in a better light. The hood also comes off, which I think is a good choice given the shorter trip, and I'm hoping they won't repeat the severe hold up tactics over this trip.

It could be that she is just a very weak finisher over any trip or that her sometimes suspect jumping will be an issue but in a race of this quality I think she's overpriced and any 14/115.00 or bigger appeals.

Worcester 17:40 - Back Lahinch Wave

Lahinch Wave hasn't been seen for 689 days but I think she could be capable of better than the market currently suggests on her rules debut.

She made her debut in the Irish pointing field for Aidan Fitzgerald and showed some promise in finishing third in a steadily run race where she didn't quite have the necessary turn of foot in the closing stages.

That race wasn't too strong but I thought she shaped like the best prospect from it and they have found a weak contest for her rules debut after a long absence. It could be that she's had a problem that means she won't be as good as she was or that today will be more about her education given the long break but I think she's overpriced given the ability he showed on debut and any 16/117.00 or bigger appeals.

Now read Katie Midwinter's Wednesday tips here.