Our resident tipster has analysed Wednesday's racing and has five selections at Dundalk and Hereford...
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Built on debut promise last time
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Found a fairly weak maiden
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Morse is overpriced at Dundalk
It's a fairly weak maiden that opens the card at Dundalk and Morse looks to have a good opportunity to get off the mark at the third attempt.
He showed promise on his debut at Leopardstown in October 2022 and built on that on his return to action at this track after 466 days off. He travelled strongly in a prominent position for a long way before not quite being able to go with the leading pair in the closing stages and finished third.
That was over 1m2½f and the way Morse travelled through the race suggests the drop back in trip to a mile today will be no issue for him. This also looks a weaker race than that and while there is a slight concern that he's coming back quite quickly for his second start after a long break, I think he just about sets the standard and is open to more progress than his main rivals. Any 7/42.75 or bigger appeals.
In the same race, I think Calmafterthestorm could run better than her big price suggests having completely blown the start on her debut when finishing well behind Morse.
Her slow start left her around twelve lengths behind the leader with a circuit to go and she could never get competitive while not being given a hard time in the home straight and she raced on the slower part of the track towards the far side.
It might be that she will repeat her antics at the start but she has the potential to take a significant step forward if breaking better and racing wide in the home straight so she's worth a small bet at 25/126.00 or bigger.
I'm taking on the front end of the market in this mares' handicap hurdle with three horses who have plied their trade in the pointing field at various times.
Orbys River started his career in the Irish pointing field and showed some ability on her second start when she likely would have finished second but for falling at the last.
She subsequently joined Sam Allwood and showed little on her first start for him but I thought she shaped with a bit of promise on her last two starts against some decent opposition. Her sixth at Bangor suggests that her opening mark of 78 looks on the lenient side and the horse that finished ten lengths ahead of her at Haydock last time is towards the front of the market for the closing race at Hereford today and races off 100.
It might be that Orbys River will only show her true ability when getting back on good ground but at least the ground today won't be as testing as it was on her previous starts over hurdles and the step up in trip should suit. Any 12/113.00 or bigger appeals.
There are a couple of other rivals at 100/1 who also make some appeal. The first of those is Firefly Lane who races from 10lb out of the handicap but her point form and her last run suggests she could be capable of being more competitive than the market suggests.
On her final run in the pointing field she chased home Ihandaya at Buckfastleigh while Grove Ash, who went on to finish a fairly close fifth in the Exeter Intermediate Final, was back in fourth.
Firefly Lane didn't take to fences back under rules next time but she ran respectably over hurdles at Exeter after that and I thought she ran better than her finishing position suggests at Stratford when last seen when she made most of the running before fading in the closing stages to finish sixth.
The drop back in trip today should suit her and it might be that the break has done her some good as she had quite a lot of racing last season. Any 33/134.00 or bigger appeals.
Lady Corrib has shown absolutely nothing under rules so her opening mark is a complete guess from the handicapper and I'm hoping that guess will be wrong given the ability she showed in the Irish pointing field.
She came down when in close contention on her debut and was narrowly beaten next time in testing conditions when not looking straightforward in the closing stages.
She was disappointing next time but bounced back on her final run in that sphere when once again narrowly beaten, this time by Spice Diva who finished second off 99 yesterday.
Lady Corrib has shown nothing since over hurdles but she's often not travelled and looked tricky so I'm hoping the application of a visor for the first time today will see her perform better.
It might be that she's just gone or prefers the steadier pace of racing in points but I can't let her go unbacked at a huge price in case the visor does the trick. Any 33/134.00 or bigger appeals.